NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	99		Excitement	6.5 [508]		MVP	Eddie House (BOS): +28.2%
Boston Celtics	109		Comeback	2.4 [773]		LVP	Rajon Rondo (BOS): -15.0%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kirk Hinrich	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.06	-0.00	10	62%	0.17	2	-0.07	6	67%	-0.00
Joakim Noah	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	2	78%	0.08	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.03
Ben Gordon	0.01	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.01	0.06	-0.04	0.01	23	54%	0.08	2	-0.06	15	100%	0.09
Tyrus Thomas	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	4	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	-0.08	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	18	50%	0.01	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09	-0.04	-0.03	0.02	8	45%	-0.03	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
John Salmons	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	12	40%	-0.06	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.18	0.11	0.01	5	133%	0.29	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.06	0.09	-0.00	8	74%	0.19	2	-0.04	3	67%	0.02
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.07	0.07	0.13	-0.02	0.04	14	62%	0.07	0	0.00	9	100%	0.04
Mikki Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brian Scalabrine	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	6	67%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Glen Davis	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.06	0.04	-0.01	16	38%	0.03	1	-0.03	7	43%	-0.08
Stephon Marbury	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	0.02	3	25%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.04	0.01	17	48%	0.00	3	-0.09	8	87%	0.01
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15	-0.15	-0.14	-0.03	-0.02	8	32%	-0.06	4	-0.09	6	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.3	3.4	36.2	20.7	33.3	3.5	51.5	176.9
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +36.1%

CHI -8.2%

BOS +15.9%

BOS +11.1%

CHI -4.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	BOS	NBA	CHI	BOS	NBA
this game	14.7	14.7	15.5	101.0	111.2	106.4
season	14.8	15.8		106.3	108.3
opponent	15.6	15.7		101.7	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.0	17.1	14.8	12.2	14.7
BOS	15.0	12.9	15.9	15.0	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lindsey Hunter	6	6	0.09	-0.59	0.69	0.01	3	-13	16	7.3	15.2	-7.84	17.2	14.5	2.63
Tyrus Thomas	36	35	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.08	-3	-7	4	15.8	14.0	1.76	14.3	14.9	-0.55
Joakim Noah	62	63	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.05	-8	-2	-6	16.1	12.2	3.95	14.8	14.5	0.32
John Salmons	86	87	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.28	-2	-8	6	14.5	16.2	-1.77	14.9	13.0	1.91
Ben Gordon	94	94	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.24	-6	-4	-2	14.6	17.7	-3.19	14.9	9.5	5.41
Kirk Hinrich	62	62	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.10	-13	3	-16	13.3	17.2	-3.91	14.1	15.7	-1.54
Brad Miller	56	56	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.26	-9	-1	-8	14.8	14.5	0.26	14.9	14.4	0.59
Derrick Rose	88	87	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.20	-12	2	-14	15.0	11.9	3.11	14.4	17.3	-2.90

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Pierce	90	89	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.21	10	0	10	14.6	16.1	-1.56	14.3	18.4	-4.13
Kendrick Perkins	59	57	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.21	6	4	2	15.7	13.2	2.43	16.0	12.8	3.21
Rajon Rondo	78	78	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.26	4	6	-2	14.3	16.1	-1.83	14.2	16.7	-2.58
Eddie House	47	49	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.05	11	-1	12	14.1	15.3	-1.21	13.1	16.2	-3.10
Ray Allen	73	72	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.19	4	6	-2	14.5	15.4	-0.95	14.9	14.1	0.84
Glen Davis	62	63	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.11	4	6	-2	15.4	13.4	1.97	15.8	12.7	3.03
Mikki Moore	6	5	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.00	6	4	2	11.3	14.9	-3.58	15.4	14.7	0.74
Stephon Marbury	27	28	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.20	11	-1	12	12.5	15.5	-3.05	13.6	15.1	-1.52
Brian Scalabrine	48	49	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.19	-6	16	-22	16.1	13.4	2.68	15.0	14.3	0.69

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.37,0.3,0.34,0.39,0.35,0.4,0.46,0.53,0.64,0.68,0.67,0.78,0.84,0.81,0.77,0.78,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.77,0.76,0.76,0.84,0.87,0.74,0.78,0.71,0.67,0.85,0.89,0.81,0.73,0.86,0.87,0.97,0.97,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 86, LAC 92	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.34,0.34,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.61,0.67,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.74,0.69,0.63,0.74,0.85,0.9,0.81,0.9,0.89,0.87,0.9,0.81,0.82,0.95,0.89,0.94,1,1	92.8%
VAN 102, LAC 110	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.44,0.35,0.36,0.32,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.75,0.81,0.86,0.78,0.76,0.76,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.73,0.78,0.68,0.58,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.91,0.92,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.93,1,1,1	92.7%
NYK 122, HOU 129	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.29,0.32,0.37,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.48,0.54,0.66,0.73,0.78,0.86,0.88,0.88,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.89,0.88,0.84,0.85,0.77,0.87,0.78,0.78,0.66,0.76,0.68,0.83,0.81,0.78,0.86,0.96,0.99,1,1	92.4%