NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	79		Excitement	5.7 [686]		MVP	Joe Smith (CLE): +32.2%
Detroit Pistons	68		Comeback	1.7 [766]		LVP	Mo Williams (CLE): -26.2%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Smith	0.32	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.29,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.17	0.15	0.00	8	83%	0.32	0	0.00	7	86%	0.02
Daniel Gibson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.04	-0.00	5	69%	0.10	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
LeBron James	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.04,-0.14,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	0.00	0.03	19	51%	0.08	2	-0.07	11	64%	-0.04
Sasha Pavlovic	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wally Szczerbiak	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anderson Varejao	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	4	58%	0.04	2	-0.04	4	25%	-0.04
Ben Wallace	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	1	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.06
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.01	-0.03	0.04	13	50%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Delonte West	-0.15	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.17	-0.02	-0.04	7	12%	-0.07	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Mo Williams	-0.26	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.19,-0.22,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.24	-0.07	-0.04	11	9%	-0.17	4	-0.09	1	0%	-0.03

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Walter Herrmann	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	0.00	0.04	4	80%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	6	42%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	11	46%	0.05	4	-0.11	4	50%	-0.02
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	17	42%	-0.04	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	10	40%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Will Bynum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	-0.00	8	33%	-0.02	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.09	-0.05	0.01	10	35%	-0.06	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	3.6	36.5	16.0	29.2	3.8	31.0	144.4
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +17.3%

CLE +8.9%

CLE +18.3%

CLE +1.0%

CLE +4.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	DET	NBA	CLE	DET	NBA
this game	17.6	16.3	15.5	91.9	81.0	106.4
season	16.9	16.9		110.6	104.9
opponent	15.7	15.2		106.2	101.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	16.7	14.2	19.6	20.4	17.6
DET	18.4	15.8	16.4	14.6	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Daniel Gibson	45	42	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.12	17	-6	23	16.2	19.0	-2.80	17.0	15.5	1.48
LeBron James	76	73	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.15	13	-2	15	17.6	17.2	0.43	16.8	13.1	3.68
Joe Smith	34	33	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.14	12	-1	13	17.5	17.6	-0.13	16.3	16.3	-0.02
Mo Williams	75	73	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.23	3	8	-5	18.6	10.9	7.65	15.4	22.1	-6.68
Anderson Varejao	62	62	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.04	9	2	7	17.9	16.8	1.10	16.5	15.8	0.70
Ben Wallace	20	19	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.14	0	11	-11	16.8	17.8	-1.02	16.4	16.3	0.11
Delonte West	59	60	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.02	4	7	-3	17.3	18.3	-1.04	16.1	16.7	-0.53
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	56	54	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.04	1	10	-9	17.6	17.6	-0.03	16.1	16.7	-0.64
Sasha Pavlovic	0	1	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.03	-2	13	-15	0.0	17.6	-17.58	17.0	16.3	0.72
Wally Szczerbiak	3	3	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	-0.01	-2	13	-15	18.3	17.6	0.78	18.3	16.2	2.12

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rodney Stuckey	62	63	0.08	-0.58	0.65	-0.01	3	-14	17	15.6	18.1	-2.45	17.8	16.9	0.91
Walter Herrmann	10	10	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.02	1	-12	13	14.2	16.6	-2.37	17.2	17.6	-0.43
Jason Maxiell	18	17	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.04	-4	-7	3	17.3	16.0	1.26	15.8	18.0	-2.26
Tayshaun Prince	59	59	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.06	-8	-3	-5	17.2	14.2	2.97	16.3	20.4	-4.17
Antonio McDyess	65	66	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.10	-4	-7	3	16.2	16.5	-0.24	17.3	18.3	-1.00
Kwame Brown	21	22	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.10	-5	-6	1	18.2	15.7	2.54	19.3	17.0	2.33
Richard Hamilton	72	74	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.16	-6	-5	-1	15.9	18.5	-2.58	18.3	13.2	5.13
Rasheed Wallace	54	57	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.18	-10	-1	-9	15.7	17.4	-1.73	17.8	17.2	0.62
Arron Afflalo	27	29	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.24	-9	-2	-7	16.1	16.4	-0.26	18.6	17.1	1.46
Will Bynum	32	33	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.18	-13	2	-15	16.9	15.9	0.95	17.0	17.9	-0.94

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.62,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.36,0.25,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.27,0.36,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.42,0.5,0.43,0.47,0.29,0.23,0.17,0.06,0.01,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 96, CHI 87	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.48,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.4,0.39,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.27,0.17,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.04,0.03,0.01,0	92.8%
IND 102, DEN 87	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.47,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.44,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.38,0.25,0.17,0.19,0.14,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	92.5%
ORL 102, GSW 94	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.48,0.49,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.31,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.56,0.4,0.29,0.5,0.52,0.47,0.28,0.27,0.13,0.09,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0,0	92.4%