NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	94		Excitement	2.8 [1206]		MVP	Kendrick Perkins (BOS): +8.7%
Detroit Pistons	80		Comeback	1.1 [459]		LVP	Tayshaun Prince (DET): -9.2%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kendrick Perkins	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.10	0.00	0.02	7	86%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.01	0.00	5	67%	0.08	0	0.00	8	87%	0.02
Rajon Rondo	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.12	10	52%	0.08	5	-0.03	3	67%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.03	16	54%	0.07	3	-0.03	9	89%	0.02
Glen Davis	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
P.J. Brown	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	40%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Sam Cassell	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	6	79%	0.06	5	-0.07	2	50%	0.00
Ray Allen	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	16	39%	-0.03	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.03	12	50%	0.07	2	-0.02	10	90%	0.02
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	5	58%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Antonio McDyess	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	7	57%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	13	46%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.08	-0.00	0.11	18	57%	-0.03	1	-0.00	10	100%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	6	37%	-0.02	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.12	-0.00	-0.03	11	18%	-0.08	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.3	3.8	35.3	20.4	30.6	3.7	36.7	161.7
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +30.6%

BOS +9.0%

BOS +8.9%

DET -0.5%

BOS +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	DET	NBA	BOS	DET	NBA
this game	18.3	15.7	15.4	110.6	95.2	105.7
season	15.6	16.8		108.0	108.8
opponent	15.8	15.9		101.3	98.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	16.0	18.3	17.8	21.0	18.3
DET	17.5	19.6	16.5	10.3	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rajon Rondo	70	69	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.02	18	-4	22	18.1	19.2	-1.06	16.2	13.7	2.44
Kevin Garnett	61	60	0.50	0.00	0.49	-0.12	21	-7	28	19.2	16.2	3.01	15.7	15.8	-0.13
Ray Allen	68	68	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.10	13	1	12	18.7	16.8	1.88	15.6	16.2	-0.63
Kendrick Perkins	48	48	0.28	0.22	0.05	-0.11	13	1	12	18.6	18.0	0.58	17.1	13.9	3.19
James Posey	45	43	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.15	4	10	-6	17.7	19.0	-1.31	14.6	16.9	-2.32
Paul Pierce	67	67	0.25	0.25	0.01	-0.10	12	2	10	18.6	17.4	1.12	15.6	16.3	-0.70
Glen Davis	13	14	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.10	1	13	-12	12.5	19.4	-6.84	15.7	15.7	-0.03
P.J. Brown	38	36	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.33	-8	22	-30	18.3	18.4	-0.12	15.8	15.7	0.17
Sam Cassell	15	15	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.11	-4	18	-22	19.2	18.1	1.06	13.7	16.2	-2.44

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Amir Johnson	1	2	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.01	-1	-13	12	23.0	15.7	7.35	15.5	18.4	-2.90
Lindsey Hunter	14	17	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.23	5	-19	24	14.1	16.1	-2.00	19.6	18.0	1.65
Rodney Stuckey	52	53	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.22	3	-17	20	13.8	18.9	-5.12	18.7	17.7	1.03
Jason Maxiell	34	35	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.05	-5	-9	4	15.9	15.6	0.34	18.0	18.5	-0.51
Richard Hamilton	78	78	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.19	-3	-11	8	15.3	20.8	-5.49	18.2	20.3	-2.13
Rasheed Wallace	64	66	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.24	-3	-11	8	15.7	16.0	-0.34	18.9	16.3	2.66
Antonio McDyess	59	57	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.08	-18	4	-22	16.7	13.4	3.27	17.7	19.6	-1.96
Tayshaun Prince	72	71	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	0.18	-23	9	-32	16.3	12.6	3.68	18.1	19.3	-1.14
Chauncey Billups	46	46	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	0.20	-25	11	-36	16.8	14.4	2.45	18.3	18.4	-0.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.33,0.36,0.39,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.32,0.27,0.21,0.14,0.12,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 114, MIL 86	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.35,0.35,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.26,0.3,0.26,0.14,0.12,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.3%
WAS 91, MEM 81	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.31,0.28,0.23,0.18,0.19,0.15,0.13,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.0%
HOU 98, CHI 66	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.26,0.3,0.21,0.18,0.22,0.17,0.09,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.7%