NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	87		Excitement	4.3 [923]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +15.9%
Dallas Mavericks	97		Comeback	1.3 [928]		LVP	David West (NOH): -11.3%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jannero Pargo	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.15	-0.01	0.03	20	71%	0.17	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Julian Wright	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bonzi Wells	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	7	43%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	12	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Tyson Chandler	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	5	40%	-0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Hilton Armstrong	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Paul	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	18	37%	-0.05	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.03
David West	-0.11	0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	0.00	20	33%	-0.09	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.15	0.03	0.02	20	64%	0.19	2	-0.03	10	90%	0.02
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	18	55%	0.08	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Devean George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.02	-0.03	4	62%	0.06	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	57%	0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Malik Allen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	-0.01	-0.04	6	50%	0.04	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Josh Howard	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	0.00	16	43%	-0.01	1	-0.02	10	80%	0.02
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	4	29%	-0.04	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	3.4	28.8	19.8	32.5	3.5	29.3	143.5
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +23.5%

DAL +8.1%

DAL +12.5%

DAL +5.6%

DAL +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	DAL	NBA	NOH	DAL	NBA
this game	16.6	15.9	15.4	98.9	109.0	105.7
season	15.9	16.1		109.6	108.9
opponent	15.4	15.7		105.0	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	15.8	15.9	17.5	17.6	16.6
DAL	14.2	16.1	15.2	18.4	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Julian Wright	15	16	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.04	5	-15	20	17.4	16.5	0.91	18.2	15.4	2.87
Jannero Pargo	58	58	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.36	14	-24	38	16.3	17.3	-0.94	17.2	13.5	3.76
Bonzi Wells	41	42	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.20	2	-12	14	17.0	16.4	0.61	16.3	15.5	0.78
Hilton Armstrong	23	22	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.02	-6	-4	-2	18.1	16.1	2.01	15.0	16.2	-1.19
Morris Peterson	19	19	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.17	-17	7	-24	18.1	16.3	1.79	12.9	16.7	-3.82
Tyson Chandler	58	60	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.04	-10	0	-10	16.4	17.2	-0.79	16.0	15.7	0.26
Peja Stojakovic	75	75	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.21	-6	-4	-2	16.2	19.5	-3.30	16.0	15.1	0.90
David West	74	75	-0.64	0.14	-0.77	-0.20	-15	5	-20	16.3	18.3	-1.95	15.3	19.2	-3.93
Chris Paul	77	78	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.17	-17	7	-24	16.8	15.9	0.84	15.6	18.0	-2.40

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	82	82	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.13	20	-10	30	15.1	25.1	-10.03	16.6	16.8	-0.20
Jason Kidd	78	78	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.14	18	-8	26	15.2	20.8	-5.61	16.5	17.8	-1.30
Josh Howard	81	79	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.20	6	4	2	15.8	17.1	-1.35	16.4	18.7	-2.25
Devean George	21	20	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.07	9	1	8	16.2	15.8	0.44	18.6	16.1	2.53
Jason Terry	74	75	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.17	5	5	0	15.9	15.8	0.12	16.7	16.3	0.40
Brandon Bass	42	40	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.19	3	7	-4	17.5	14.4	3.12	17.5	15.9	1.61
Erick Dampier	49	50	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.04	3	7	-4	14.6	17.5	-2.86	15.7	17.9	-2.15
Malik Allen	5	4	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.06	-6	16	-22	27.6	15.2	12.40	19.7	16.5	3.25
Jerry Stackhouse	13	12	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	0.05	-8	18	-26	20.2	15.2	4.98	15.5	16.8	-1.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.67,0.68,0.67,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.7,0.68,0.79,0.82,0.85,0.76,0.74,0.8,0.72,0.85,0.9,0.85,0.9,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 91, MIA 104	0.5,0.5,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.7,0.62,0.78,0.78,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.74,0.81,0.83,0.86,0.93,0.94,0.98,0.96,0.89,0.93,0.96,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.0%
IND 85, WAS 104	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.65,0.68,0.7,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.62,0.72,0.8,0.9,0.84,0.84,0.85,0.76,0.79,0.78,0.82,0.9,0.9,0.94,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.0%
ATL 89, MIA 106	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.63,0.66,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.61,0.64,0.59,0.63,0.74,0.82,0.78,0.78,0.84,0.84,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.92,0.87,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.7%