NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	100		Excitement	3.9 [998]		MVP	Jason Kapono (TOR): +16.1%
Orlando Magic	114		Comeback	1.0 [1118]		LVP	T.J. Ford (TOR): -7.5%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Kapono	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.15	0.04	0.03	9	90%	0.18	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Anthony Parker	0.12	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11	0.15	-0.00	0.03	14	67%	0.12	1	-0.00	8	87%	0.02
Chris Bosh	0.05	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	0.00	0.02	11	60%	0.11	3	-0.05	13	100%	0.04
Kris Humphries	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joey Graham	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamario Moon	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrea Bargnani	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	8	31%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.01	-0.01	0.04	15	53%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.02	11	37%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
T.J. Ford	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	9	24%	-0.08	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.12	0.03	0.00	13	68%	0.19	2	-0.05	11	82%	0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.06	0.00	15	64%	0.16	3	-0.04	3	67%	0.00
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.15	0.00	0.05	7	100%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	8	62%	0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.10	0.01	0.07	13	71%	0.09	3	-0.05	8	100%	0.01
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	7	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	-0.01	-0.03	14	45%	0.01	1	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01
Adonal Foyle	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	3.4	32.1	19.8	31.2	3.6	34.5	150.8
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +55.4%

TOR -7.1%

ORL +5.2%

TOR -4.4%

ORL +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	ORL	NBA	TOR	ORL	NBA
this game	16.2	16.3	15.4	112.4	129.5	105.7
season	15.6	15.1		108.5	109.9
opponent	15.6	15.7		104.6	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	17.8	14.5	15.8	16.7	16.2
ORL	13.5	19.0	16.2	16.8	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kris Humphries	0	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-14	14	0.0	16.2	-16.21	9.0	16.4	-7.41
Joey Graham	2	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-12	10	12.0	16.3	-4.31	16.0	16.3	-0.34
Carlos Delfino	26	27	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.08	1	-15	16	16.1	16.3	-0.19	17.2	15.9	1.29
Jamario Moon	9	10	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.12	-9	-5	-4	19.6	15.8	3.72	13.5	16.7	-3.19
Jason Kapono	56	53	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.26	3	-17	20	15.4	17.6	-2.26	17.6	14.3	3.30
T.J. Ford	43	42	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.05	-5	-9	4	16.5	16.0	0.49	15.6	17.0	-1.40
Jose Calderon	46	46	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.04	-9	-5	-4	16.0	16.5	-0.49	17.0	15.6	1.40
Rasho Nesterovic	65	65	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.14	-6	-8	2	16.8	14.6	2.23	16.3	16.3	0.03
Chris Bosh	72	69	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.06	-15	1	-16	16.0	17.0	-0.97	15.8	18.3	-2.47
Andrea Bargnani	52	53	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.03	-15	1	-16	16.3	16.1	0.18	16.3	16.4	-0.16
Anthony Parker	74	71	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.09	-13	-1	-12	16.2	16.3	-0.06	16.1	17.4	-1.27

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hedo Turkoglu	69	70	0.53	-0.03	0.56	-0.03	19	-5	24	16.2	16.8	-0.59	16.5	15.2	1.34
Rashard Lewis	77	77	0.49	0.01	0.48	-0.07	19	-5	24	16.0	18.7	-2.74	16.4	14.8	1.60
Dwight Howard	80	81	0.46	0.04	0.43	-0.15	21	-7	28	15.8	21.5	-5.69	16.6	12.7	3.81
Jameer Nelson	60	60	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.09	6	8	-2	15.8	17.5	-1.72	16.5	15.6	0.98
Maurice Evans	64	66	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.21	1	13	-12	16.3	16.3	-0.01	15.8	17.3	-1.47
Keith Bogans	51	52	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.21	1	13	-12	17.0	15.4	1.69	16.2	16.3	-0.14
Keyon Dooling	31	31	0.23	0.27	-0.03	-0.06	10	4	6	17.4	15.8	1.58	15.3	16.7	-1.37
Adonal Foyle	8	8	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.24	-7	21	-28	21.5	15.8	5.69	12.7	16.6	-3.81

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.57,0.66,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.72,0.74,0.77,0.78,0.83,0.86,0.89,0.87,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.91,0.91,0.89,0.85,0.84,0.84,0.79,0.77,0.85,0.85,0.81,0.89,0.88,0.85,0.83,0.8,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.79,0.9,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.97,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 100, HOU 112	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.84,0.88,0.9,0.87,0.89,0.88,0.87,0.88,0.88,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.89,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.84,0.79,0.88,0.84,0.85,0.92,0.93,0.91,0.86,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%
SEA 105, DEN 121	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.71,0.73,0.8,0.84,0.86,0.92,0.92,0.91,0.87,0.89,0.85,0.86,0.83,0.86,0.86,0.77,0.85,0.84,0.81,0.76,0.82,0.85,0.94,0.89,0.95,0.95,0.85,0.92,0.88,0.95,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%
MIL 92, NJN 103	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.7,0.69,0.72,0.68,0.7,0.77,0.76,0.83,0.87,0.86,0.84,0.83,0.88,0.87,0.84,0.8,0.86,0.85,0.88,0.86,0.84,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.95,0.91,0.88,0.84,0.85,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.91,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.1%