NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	105		Excitement	3.9 [1064]		MVP	DerMarr Johnson (DEN): +11.9%
Denver Nuggets	121		Comeback	1.0 [1274]		LVP	Jerome James (SEA): -5.3%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.13	-0.01	0.07	20	65%	0.07	1	-0.02	9	78%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	10	56%	0.03	1	-0.01	5	80%	0.00
Vitaly Potapenko	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	8	67%	0.03	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Nick Collison	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	7	43%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Evans	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	4	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Ronald Murray	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.10	0.03	-0.05	23	40%	-0.00	2	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Luke Ridnour	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	0.00	10	50%	0.02	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jerome James	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	5	40%	-0.01	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DerMarr Johnson	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.01	-0.02	8	74%	0.12	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.00	0.02	-0.05	17	56%	0.11	2	-0.04	9	89%	0.03
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.06	8	50%	0.05	2	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Andre Miller	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	9	64%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Wesley Person	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	0.00	0.03	5	70%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	7	70%	0.04	2	-0.03	6	67%	-0.01
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.06	-0.01	0.05	11	77%	0.06	3	-0.05	8	75%	-0.00
Francisco Elson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryon Russell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	5	67%	-0.02	1	-0.01	14	71%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	1.8	33.0	15.8	26.7	1.8	29.5	136.4
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +31.1%

DEN +9.1%

DEN +0.8%

DEN +3.5%

DEN +5.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	DEN	NBA	SEA	DEN	NBA
this game	16.3	14.0	15.5	109.4	128.7	104.0
season	16.5	14.8		109.5	103.8
opponent	15.6	15.6		102.3	107.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	18.4	13.6	16.5	17.3	16.3
DEN	14.1	12.6	13.5	16.2	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vitaly Potapenko	45	46	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.12	-2	-14	12	16.3	16.2	0.10	14.9	13.1	1.81
Nick Collison	50	50	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.07	-6	-10	4	16.0	16.6	-0.63	14.3	13.7	0.66
Jerome James	30	28	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.13	-13	-3	-10	16.6	16.2	0.42	11.6	15.0	-3.47
Reggie Evans	67	64	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.05	-13	-3	-10	16.3	16.1	0.21	14.2	13.7	0.51
Luke Ridnour	53	51	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.13	-16	0	-16	16.9	15.5	1.35	13.0	15.3	-2.30
Damien Wilkins	55	54	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.13	-16	0	-16	17.3	14.9	2.49	13.6	14.6	-0.98
Ray Allen	80	79	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.14	-7	-9	2	15.8	18.6	-2.81	14.5	11.6	2.87
Ronald Murray	76	74	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.13	-10	-6	-4	16.2	16.7	-0.53	14.4	12.5	1.92

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Earl Boykins	59	56	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.03	15	1	14	14.5	13.2	1.29	16.6	15.8	0.74
Andre Miller	63	64	0.31	0.19	0.13	-0.07	13	3	10	14.4	13.3	1.07	16.1	16.7	-0.66
Kenyon Martin	61	62	0.31	0.19	0.13	-0.04	12	4	8	14.4	13.3	1.04	16.0	16.9	-0.89
Marcus Camby	64	66	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.04	12	4	8	14.0	14.0	0.06	16.1	16.6	-0.46
Nene	40	41	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.01	11	5	6	14.0	14.0	-0.06	17.6	15.3	2.36
Greg Buckner	42	44	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.06	6	10	-4	12.8	15.0	-2.17	16.1	16.4	-0.35
Wesley Person	31	32	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.10	3	13	-10	13.3	14.4	-1.07	16.7	16.1	0.66
Bryon Russell	14	15	0.19	0.31	-0.13	-0.02	7	9	-2	11.3	14.5	-3.20	17.3	16.1	1.25
Carmelo Anthony	61	62	0.15	0.34	-0.19	0.10	2	14	-12	13.9	14.3	-0.40	15.2	18.2	-2.98
DerMarr Johnson	32	35	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.05	1	15	-14	15.0	13.5	1.45	16.8	16.0	0.86
Francisco Elson	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	18	-20	19.3	13.8	5.50	14.7	16.3	-1.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.71,0.73,0.8,0.84,0.86,0.92,0.92,0.91,0.87,0.89,0.85,0.86,0.83,0.86,0.86,0.77,0.85,0.84,0.81,0.76,0.82,0.85,0.94,0.89,0.95,0.95,0.85,0.92,0.88,0.95,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 80, HOU 89	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.71,0.71,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.75,0.84,0.86,0.91,0.92,0.87,0.84,0.84,0.88,0.9,0.9,0.89,0.88,0.84,0.8,0.82,0.83,0.79,0.77,0.86,0.86,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%
POR 78, NYK 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.77,0.76,0.83,0.84,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.87,0.89,0.91,0.88,0.89,0.88,0.86,0.82,0.79,0.84,0.82,0.85,0.81,0.8,0.8,0.84,0.89,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%
NOH 92, DAL 100	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.7,0.69,0.69,0.72,0.75,0.79,0.87,0.87,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.91,0.9,0.87,0.87,0.82,0.78,0.74,0.82,0.8,0.76,0.86,0.8,0.85,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1	95.9%