NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	106		Excitement	5.2 [794]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +17.7%
San Antonio Spurs	114		Comeback	1.5 [806]		LVP	Steve Nash (PHX): -12.2%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Amar'e Stoudemire	0.07	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07	0.18	-0.00	0.11	28	58%	0.07	0	0.00	10	90%	0.04
James Jones	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	4	87%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raja Bell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	9	65%	0.08	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Boris Diaw	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	1	25%	-0.00	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Shawn Marion	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.01	12	42%	-0.03	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Kurt Thomas	-0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.04	0.01	6	36%	-0.06	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Leandro Barbosa	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	15	38%	-0.06	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Steve Nash	-0.12	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.12	0.05	-0.04	0.13	10	82%	-0.03	5	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.20	0.03	0.06	17	77%	0.22	3	-0.05	9	78%	0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	-0.03	-0.09	27	46%	0.08	1	-0.02	11	73%	-0.02
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.05	0.03	-0.06	10	40%	0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.07	0.00	0.08	6	69%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	3	33%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.04	0.03	19	55%	0.02	4	-0.11	6	33%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.1	2.8	36.0	19.8	32.3	3.6	39.2	161.8
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +45.9%

PHX -7.9%

SAS +1.9%

SAS +9.6%

SAS +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	SAS	NBA	PHX	SAS	NBA
this game	13.0	16.3	15.4	107.1	116.3	104.5
season	13.8	16.2		112.2	107.5
opponent	15.4	16.0		98.9	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	13.7	15.3	13.3	10.2	13.0
SAS	13.4	17.4	18.0	16.7	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Boris Diaw	32	28	0.01	-0.51	0.53	0.01	0	-8	8	12.4	13.3	-0.83	14.7	16.9	-2.16
Kurt Thomas	30	34	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.02	-2	-6	4	16.0	11.7	4.35	16.3	16.2	0.10
James Jones	45	44	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.04	-9	1	-10	12.6	13.4	-0.77	15.1	17.2	-2.15
Steve Nash	75	75	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.34	1	-9	10	12.8	13.5	-0.66	16.8	14.4	2.38
Raja Bell	85	83	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.22	-5	-3	-2	13.2	12.1	1.08	17.3	10.7	6.60
Leandro Barbosa	64	62	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.12	-12	4	-16	12.2	14.4	-2.21	14.9	18.6	-3.68
Amar'e Stoudemire	82	83	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.30	-6	-2	-4	13.0	13.1	-0.07	16.4	15.5	0.85
Shawn Marion	82	81	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.30	-7	-1	-6	13.0	13.2	-0.28	16.8	13.9	2.87

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	81	80	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.36	7	1	6	16.2	16.3	-0.05	13.6	10.6	2.93
Manu Ginobili	76	79	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.14	12	-4	16	15.5	19.0	-3.48	12.9	13.5	-0.63
Bruce Bowen	86	87	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.38	2	6	-4	16.5	14.3	2.19	12.7	15.2	-2.47
Tony Parker	84	85	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.24	6	2	4	16.5	14.9	1.63	12.9	13.5	-0.58
Michael Finley	64	65	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.18	3	5	-2	16.9	15.0	1.97	12.6	13.7	-1.03
Francisco Elson	43	42	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.15	4	4	0	14.7	17.5	-2.78	14.2	12.1	2.03
Fabricio Oberto	22	21	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.02	3	5	-2	16.5	16.2	0.32	13.5	12.9	0.60
Brent Barry	24	25	0.04	0.46	-0.43	-0.08	4	4	0	16.8	16.1	0.71	12.4	13.2	-0.75
Jacque Vaughn	8	9	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.03	0	8	-8	17.4	16.2	1.22	12.2	13.1	-0.86
Matt Bonner	2	2	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	-0.09	-1	9	-10	23.0	16.1	6.89	4.5	13.2	-8.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.68,0.79,0.88,0.86,0.87,0.95,0.95,0.99,1,1,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,0.97,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 70, MEM 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.67,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.71,0.75,0.86,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1	95.9%
IND 89, MIA 102	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.47,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.72,0.77,0.9,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.99,1,1	95.4%
MEM 96, POR 115	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.37,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.56,0.54,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.65,0.68,0.79,0.87,0.9,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%