NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	89		Excitement	4.8 [834]		MVP	Travis Best (IND): +7.1%
Miami Heat	102		Comeback	1.6 [913]		LVP	Jalen Rose (IND): -18.9%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Travis Best	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	0.01	0.02	11	64%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	0.04	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.07	-0.02	0.01	12	71%	0.10	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.03
Jonathan Bender	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Miller	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.06	0.02	-0.05	10	41%	0.04	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Zan Tabak	0.00	0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.05
Austin Croshere	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.02	-0.00	0.04	12	58%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Foster	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	3	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.10	-0.05	0.00	3	12%	-0.09	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Jalen Rose	-0.19	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.2,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.14	-0.05	0.00	18	43%	-0.11	4	-0.08	8	62%	-0.04

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.02	-0.03	14	54%	0.09	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
A.C. Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.00	-0.04	7	57%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0,0,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.02	20	59%	0.10	3	-0.06	9	78%	0.01
Brian Grant	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	-0.01	15	56%	0.05	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.06	-0.02	0.03	8	65%	0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	8	47%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	2.4	30.2	15.5	26.2	1.8	27.0	126.9
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +20.0%

MIA +5.9%

MIA +11.8%

MIA +7.8%

MIA +4.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	MIA	NBA	IND	MIA	NBA
this game	16.7	17.2	15.5	104.7	120.0	100.9
season	15.9	16.3		99.3	98.4
opponent	16.1	15.6		96.9	99.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	14.9	16.5	18.9	16.8	16.7
MIA	17.1	17.8	14.7	19.2	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonathan Bender	13	14	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.05	1	-14	15	13.7	17.3	-3.57	15.6	17.5	-1.91
Jermaine O'Neal	34	34	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.15	1	-14	15	17.1	16.5	0.67	18.3	16.4	1.93
Austin Croshere	42	44	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.06	-6	-7	1	16.5	17.0	-0.52	17.7	16.6	1.12
Reggie Miller	70	69	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.06	-6	-7	1	17.4	13.5	3.95	17.9	14.1	3.82
Zan Tabak	43	41	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.06	-7	-6	-1	17.0	16.5	0.52	16.6	17.7	-1.12
Jeff Foster	28	29	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.00	-10	-3	-7	16.1	17.0	-0.96	14.1	18.7	-4.65
Travis Best	49	50	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.05	-10	-3	-7	16.3	17.2	-0.92	17.6	16.5	1.11
Jalen Rose	74	73	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.07	-13	0	-13	17.1	14.3	2.81	17.4	16.0	1.36
Al Harrington	72	71	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.08	-15	2	-17	16.5	17.7	-1.15	17.0	18.2	-1.26

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Jones	73	73	0.50	-0.00	0.51	-0.05	19	-6	25	16.7	19.7	-3.01	16.7	16.8	-0.13
Tim Hardaway	60	59	0.48	0.02	0.45	-0.05	18	-5	23	17.7	15.8	1.99	17.3	15.4	1.87
Anthony Mason	79	78	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.06	14	-1	15	17.0	19.0	-1.97	16.7	16.6	0.16
Bruce Bowen	48	49	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.08	12	1	11	16.6	17.8	-1.19	17.7	15.4	2.30
A.C. Green	42	41	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.22	4	9	-5	17.2	17.1	0.05	15.2	18.2	-2.99
Brian Grant	43	44	0.15	0.35	-0.19	-0.05	7	6	1	17.4	16.9	0.47	18.2	15.1	3.13
Dan Majerle	42	42	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.09	0	13	-13	17.7	16.7	0.99	15.8	17.6	-1.75
Anthony Carter	36	37	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.29	-9	22	-31	16.9	17.4	-0.48	16.0	17.2	-1.22
Eddie House	2	2	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.01	0	13	-13	22.0	17.0	4.95	6.0	17.0	-10.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.47,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.72,0.77,0.9,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 106, SAS 114	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.68,0.79,0.88,0.86,0.87,0.95,0.95,0.99,1,1,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,0.97,0.99,1,1	95.4%
MIA 87, CHI 106	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.72,0.56,0.69,0.84,0.93,0.97,0.95,0.98,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.0%
LAL 87, HOU 102	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.85,0.84,0.87,0.81,0.87,0.91,0.96,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%