NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	87		Excitement	4.5 [922]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +12.2%
Chicago Bulls	106		Comeback	1.4 [937]		LVP	Ben Gordon (CHI): -11.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.14	-0.02	-0.00	21	62%	0.16	1	-0.03	8	75%	0.01
Chris Quinn	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	3	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yakhouba Diawara	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamario Moon	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luther Head	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.00	0.03	6	58%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	10	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.03
James Jones	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	10	42%	-0.01	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Mario Chalmers	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	0.00	-0.02	0.06	7	59%	-0.03	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.03	0.03	9	65%	0.01	5	-0.10	2	50%	-0.02

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Salmons	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.04	0.00	22	59%	0.21	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Derrick Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.00	7	56%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.01	0.01	6	71%	0.04	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.02	10	68%	0.11	4	-0.09	2	50%	-0.02
Tyrus Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	11	60%	0.07	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Lindsey Hunter	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Linton Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	7	63%	0.02	4	-0.04	5	80%	-0.01
Ben Gordon	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	0.03	-0.03	0.12	14	56%	-0.09	2	-0.02	4	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	2.8	32.4	19.4	29.3	3.5	31.6	143.6
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +31.0%

MIA -0.3%

CHI +20.2%

CHI +2.7%

MIA -3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHI	NBA	MIA	CHI	NBA
this game	15.8	17.5	15.5	100.0	123.3	106.4
season	16.0	14.8		105.9	106.3
opponent	15.7	15.7		107.2	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.5	17.4	14.7	14.8	15.8
CHI	17.0	19.4	16.7	17.2	17.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Daequan Cook	14	16	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.14	5	-24	29	18.6	15.2	3.32	19.3	17.1	2.20
Chris Quinn	2	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-19	19	22.5	15.6	6.88	23.0	17.4	5.61
Yakhouba Diawara	1	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-19	19	21.0	15.7	5.28	23.0	17.4	5.61
Jamaal Magloire	20	18	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	0.07	-3	-16	13	15.6	15.8	-0.24	18.2	17.4	0.81
Luther Head	40	38	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.09	-6	-13	7	16.1	15.5	0.64	16.8	18.1	-1.27
James Jones	15	14	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.11	0	-19	19	15.6	15.8	-0.22	16.5	17.7	-1.22
Jermaine O'Neal	43	42	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.14	-9	-10	1	16.0	15.6	0.39	17.2	17.8	-0.60
Michael Beasley	43	44	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.05	-10	-9	-1	15.5	16.0	-0.53	18.9	16.1	2.74
Jamario Moon	55	55	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	0.02	-15	-4	-11	15.6	16.0	-0.39	17.4	17.7	-0.24
Mario Chalmers	62	64	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	0.06	-17	-2	-15	15.5	16.4	-0.92	17.8	16.7	1.07
Udonis Haslem	67	65	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.02	-16	-3	-13	15.8	15.7	0.11	16.7	20.0	-3.21
Dwyane Wade	73	70	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	0.20	-24	5	-29	15.2	18.6	-3.32	17.1	19.3	-2.20

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyrus Thomas	68	69	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.02	17	2	15	17.7	16.7	1.01	15.7	16.1	-0.35
John Salmons	78	77	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.04	16	3	13	17.4	18.2	-0.80	15.7	16.2	-0.47
Kirk Hinrich	64	66	0.42	0.08	0.35	-0.10	18	1	17	17.5	17.6	-0.15	15.7	16.2	-0.54
Derrick Rose	53	55	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.09	15	4	11	17.0	18.3	-1.31	15.9	15.5	0.45
Brad Miller	41	43	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.14	15	4	11	16.9	18.1	-1.23	15.6	16.0	-0.40
Ben Gordon	59	59	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.01	8	11	-3	17.7	17.0	0.71	15.4	16.6	-1.22
Joakim Noah	63	62	0.18	0.32	-0.15	-0.00	6	13	-7	17.7	17.0	0.71	16.0	15.2	0.76
Lindsey Hunter	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	19	-19	23.0	17.4	5.61	22.5	15.6	6.88
Linton Johnson	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	19	-19	23.0	17.4	5.61	22.5	15.6	6.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.72,0.56,0.69,0.84,0.93,0.97,0.95,0.98,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 89, MIA 102	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.47,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.72,0.77,0.9,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.99,1,1	95.0%
DAL 78, MIN 91	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.73,0.69,0.77,0.82,0.85,0.84,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,1,0.98,1,1,1,1	94.7%
ORL 97, MIA 108	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.5,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.61,0.66,0.59,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.48,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.77,0.89,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.96,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.7%