NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	92		Excitement	8.2 [235]		MVP	Carlos Boozer (UTA): +22.6%
Houston Rockets	96		Comeback	3.0 [664]		LVP	Matt Harpring (UTA): -19.2%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carlos Boozer	0.23	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.23,0.23	0.04	0.18	-0.00	23	53%	0.27	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.02
Paul Millsap	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	5	60%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrei Kirilenko	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	0.00	5	80%	0.12	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jarron Collins	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gordan Giricek	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.00	5	60%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,-0.02	0.08	-0.10	0.01	11	68%	0.14	2	-0.16	3	100%	0.03
Mehmet Okur	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.1	-0.00	-0.10	-0.00	7	50%	-0.06	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.03
Deron Williams	-0.17	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17	-0.15	-0.02	-0.01	16	34%	-0.07	4	-0.10	6	83%	0.02
Matt Harpring	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,-0.19	-0.04	-0.15	-0.00	7	44%	-0.09	2	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shane Battier	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.15	0.06	0.00	7	107%	0.23	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.10	0.07	0.00	6	100%	0.19	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Luther Head	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	-0.00	0.11	-0.00	7	57%	0.16	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.02,0.1,0.07,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.02	0.06	-0.01	25	48%	0.19	4	-0.14	4	50%	-0.05
Dikembe Mutombo	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Snyder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	0.00	10	58%	0.04	3	-0.09	4	75%	-0.05
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Yao Ming	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.09,0.02,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	18	46%	0.14	4	-0.22	10	90%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.8	27.2	19.6	24.7	3.0	38.3	141.8
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +58.0%

UTA -3.1%

UTA -3.8%

UTA -4.3%

HOU +3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	HOU	NBA	UTA	HOU	NBA
this game	16.9	15.1	15.4	102.2	106.7	104.5
season	15.9	15.6		107.4	103.6
opponent	15.7	15.0		99.2	104.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	13.9	19.8	17.7	16.8	16.9
HOU	16.1	16.2	14.3	13.9	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jarron Collins	20	19	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.03	3	-7	10	16.5	17.0	-0.51	15.3	15.1	0.21
Paul Millsap	20	18	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.07	3	-7	10	18.1	16.6	1.54	15.4	15.0	0.36
Derek Fisher	60	58	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.18	6	-10	16	17.2	16.4	0.80	15.8	13.9	1.90
Gordan Giricek	34	33	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.10	-4	0	-4	17.6	16.4	1.20	15.7	14.8	0.94
Matt Harpring	41	40	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.23	0	-4	4	17.7	16.2	1.48	14.3	15.7	-1.35
Andrei Kirilenko	57	60	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.21	-4	0	-4	16.2	18.1	-1.93	15.1	15.0	0.10
Mehmet Okur	69	70	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.33	-7	3	-10	17.1	16.1	1.05	15.2	14.6	0.58
Carlos Boozer	71	73	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.34	-7	3	-10	16.4	18.6	-2.19	14.9	16.1	-1.25
Deron Williams	78	79	-0.71	0.21	-0.93	-0.42	-10	6	-16	16.5	19.7	-3.29	14.7	17.9	-3.20

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Juwan Howard	46	45	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.37	7	-3	10	15.3	14.9	0.46	18.6	15.2	3.44
Tracy McGrady	82	81	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.28	6	-2	8	15.1	15.1	-0.03	16.9	17.1	-0.23
Rafer Alston	83	83	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.40	0	4	-4	15.1	15.4	-0.36	16.7	19.7	-3.05
Charles Hayes	51	51	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.35	-3	7	-10	14.5	15.9	-1.41	15.5	18.7	-3.12
Yao Ming	74	74	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.08	2	2	0	15.5	13.1	2.48	16.6	18.5	-1.95
Luther Head	25	27	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.04	0	4	-4	15.9	14.8	1.08	18.7	16.1	2.63
Shane Battier	51	51	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.00	1	3	-2	15.2	15.0	0.22	16.2	17.8	-1.53
Dikembe Mutombo	9	10	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.04	2	2	0	13.8	15.2	-1.47	18.6	16.7	1.91
Kirk Snyder	5	5	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.00	-3	7	-10	16.4	15.0	1.38	18.6	16.8	1.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.32,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.26,0.34,0.31,0.39,0.39,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.32,0.34,0.43,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.64,0.76,0.67,0.85,0.96,0.84,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 97, POR 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.33,0.34,0.29,0.39,0.36,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.43,0.45,0.52,0.61,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.52,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.64,0.76,0.86,0.95,1,1,1,1	93.0%
MEM 87, HOU 90	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.37,0.44,0.36,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.58,0.47,0.41,0.66,0.82,0.89,0.93,0.9,0.95,1	92.9%
HOU 110, PHX 113	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.46,0.4,0.36,0.29,0.29,0.35,0.3,0.23,0.28,0.28,0.39,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.55,0.58,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.32,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.52,0.47,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.72,0.91,0.98,1	92.8%