NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	97		Excitement	6.6 [491]		MVP	Khris Middleton (MIL): +16.4%
Portland Trail Blazers	104		Comeback	2.6 [820]		LVP	O.J. Mayo (MIL): -14.8%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Khris Middleton	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.16	0.11	0.06	0.01	12	63%	0.16	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Jerryd Bayless	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.05	-0.02	8	62%	0.12	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Larry Sanders	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	4	82%	0.09	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.03
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	7	62%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nate Wolters	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johnny O'Bryant	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Brandon Knight	-0.06	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.03	-0.02	0.08	19	60%	0.05	4	-0.11	2	100%	-0.00
Jared Dudley	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	5	25%	-0.07	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Kendall Marshall	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.02	-0.03	0.03	6	42%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
O.J. Mayo	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.09	-0.05	0.01	12	40%	-0.04	3	-0.11	6	67%	-0.03

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.11	0.06	0.01	18	69%	0.27	4	-0.11	6	83%	0.01
Wesley Matthews	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.01	8	69%	0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Joel Freeland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.05	0.00	4	67%	0.10	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.03
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	5	30%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
CJ McCollum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Allen Crabbe	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.04	19	55%	0.05	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.02
Chris Kaman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.02	-0.01	12	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.03	0.02	11	35%	-0.02	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Thomas Robinson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	8	48%	0.06	4	-0.13	15	33%	-0.11

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	2.4	30.2	15.5	22.5	2.7	41.7	137.5
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +31.6%

MIL -9.7%

POR +33.1%

MIL -6.1%

POR +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	POR	NBA	MIL	POR	NBA
this game	13.7	16.3	15.1	101.0	108.3	104.2
season	14.5	15.3		100.5	106.5
opponent	15.0	15.7		102.7	101.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	13.3	14.5	14.5	12.6	13.7
POR	17.2	16.1	19.0	13.6	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Giannis Antetokounmpo	34	34	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.10	-3	-4	1	14.6	13.2	1.36	17.7	15.5	2.24
Nate Wolters	4	5	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-9	11	5.5	14.1	-8.57	18.6	16.2	2.44
Johnny O'Bryant	10	11	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.08	1	-8	9	8.5	14.3	-5.81	15.5	16.4	-0.95
Jared Dudley	57	57	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.07	-1	-6	5	13.3	14.4	-1.10	15.6	17.2	-1.58
Brandon Knight	68	66	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.07	-2	-5	3	13.1	15.2	-2.08	16.3	16.2	0.13
Khris Middleton	66	66	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.25	2	-9	11	13.7	13.8	-0.13	16.3	16.3	-0.06
Larry Sanders	42	41	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.11	-4	-3	-1	14.6	13.0	1.53	15.8	16.7	-0.85
Kendall Marshall	32	33	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.18	-3	-4	1	14.7	13.2	1.47	16.8	16.0	0.80
Zaza Pachulia	48	48	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.19	-9	2	-11	14.8	12.6	2.25	17.8	14.7	3.08
Jerryd Bayless	46	45	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.23	-9	2	-11	13.7	13.8	-0.11	15.1	17.3	-2.18
O.J. Mayo	73	74	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.32	-9	2	-11	13.8	13.5	0.30	15.8	17.9	-2.10

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Thomas Robinson	61	60	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.26	15	-8	23	14.6	19.2	-4.58	13.8	13.5	0.33
Damian Lillard	74	76	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.25	14	-7	21	15.8	17.9	-2.04	13.4	14.7	-1.25
Nicolas Batum	73	74	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.26	13	-6	19	15.9	17.5	-1.56	13.5	14.4	-0.85
CJ McCollum	27	25	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.28	11	-4	15	15.1	16.8	-1.69	15.6	13.1	2.50
Joel Freeland	26	24	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.20	5	2	3	15.4	16.6	-1.24	15.4	13.1	2.28
LaMarcus Aldridge	70	72	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.10	2	5	-3	16.6	15.4	1.24	13.1	15.4	-2.28
Wesley Matthews	65	67	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	-0.03	-1	8	-9	16.1	16.6	-0.47	13.1	15.1	-2.00
Allen Crabbe	16	14	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.03	-7	14	-21	18.3	15.9	2.42	15.0	13.5	1.51
Chris Kaman	32	32	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.00	-6	13	-19	18.9	15.0	3.97	14.5	13.3	1.19
Steve Blake	36	36	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.12	-11	18	-29	18.8	14.8	3.98	13.1	14.1	-1.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.33,0.34,0.29,0.39,0.36,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.43,0.45,0.52,0.61,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.52,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.64,0.76,0.86,0.95,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 103, WAS 114	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.3,0.33,0.38,0.39,0.4,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.5,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.37,0.4,0.46,0.57,0.43,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.71,0.87,0.97,0.93,1,1,1	93.6%
MEM 87, HOU 90	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.37,0.44,0.36,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.58,0.47,0.41,0.66,0.82,0.89,0.93,0.9,0.95,1	93.6%
SAC 85, NJN 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.38,0.29,0.25,0.28,0.24,0.27,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.46,0.43,0.37,0.39,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.78,0.81,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.0%