NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	99		Excitement	5.2 [797]		MVP	Josh Howard (DAL): +11.9%
Dallas Mavericks	112		Comeback	1.8 [1086]		LVP	Baron Davis (GSW): -13.8%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Jackson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.03	-0.02	16	70%	0.18	8	-0.16	11	82%	0.02
Mickael Pietrus	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	0.00	0.03	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Monta Ellis	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.02	15	59%	0.06	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.01
Andris Biedrins	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.03	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelenna Azubuike	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Sarunas Jasikevicius	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Matt Barnes	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	5	40%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	15	47%	0.02	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	-0.01	-0.04	8	25%	-0.06	1	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Baron Davis	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.05	-0.01	12	50%	0.02	6	-0.15	2	100%	0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Howard	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.03	-0.01	13	67%	0.18	3	-0.06	7	86%	0.02
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	15	56%	0.09	0	0.00	11	82%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.00	0.04	-0.04	9	55%	0.11	2	-0.03	13	85%	0.07
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.01	0.01	7	79%	0.09	3	-0.05	5	100%	0.03
Jason Terry	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	-0.02	0.02	23	57%	0.07	3	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	1	100%	0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Ager	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	5	21%	-0.04	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.8	2.8	34.5	19.5	34.2	3.7	36.6	159.1
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +5.6%

DAL +18.9%

DAL +5.1%

DAL +20.6%

GSW -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DAL	NBA	GSW	DAL	NBA
this game	12.3	15.8	15.4	96.1	109.8	104.5
season	13.5	16.3		105.7	108.7
opponent	15.2	15.2		102.3	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	11.8	13.2	12.6	11.6	12.3
DAL	18.2	13.4	13.2	18.9	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kelenna Azubuike	15	16	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.22	8	-21	29	9.8	12.8	-2.97	19.4	15.1	4.27
Adonal Foyle	5	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-18	23	11.6	12.4	-0.78	19.0	15.6	3.39
Sarunas Jasikevicius	5	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-18	23	11.6	12.4	-0.78	19.0	15.6	3.39
Andris Biedrins	41	42	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.17	2	-15	17	12.6	12.1	0.49	17.0	14.9	2.00
Baron Davis	71	70	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.10	-5	-8	3	12.6	11.7	0.95	14.8	17.8	-3.02
Al Harrington	62	59	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.09	-7	-6	-1	12.0	12.8	-0.77	16.4	14.9	1.54
Matt Barnes	44	43	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.07	-13	0	-13	12.5	12.2	0.24	16.0	15.6	0.31
Mickael Pietrus	39	38	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	0.09	-14	1	-15	12.1	12.5	-0.42	14.9	16.3	-1.36
Stephen Jackson	78	80	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.09	-9	-4	-5	12.5	11.9	0.61	16.0	14.8	1.22
Jason Richardson	84	81	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.07	-15	2	-17	12.5	11.5	1.00	15.3	17.8	-2.50
Monta Ellis	71	71	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	0.14	-22	9	-31	12.5	12.1	0.40	14.8	17.9	-3.06

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeSagana Diop	54	55	0.56	-0.06	0.61	-0.21	26	-13	39	16.6	14.9	1.74	12.4	12.3	0.05
Josh Howard	85	85	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.09	14	-1	15	16.3	13.4	2.91	12.6	11.0	1.62
Jason Terry	89	89	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.06	14	-1	15	15.8	15.9	-0.17	12.1	14.1	-2.09
Dirk Nowitzki	77	75	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.03	13	0	13	15.4	17.0	-1.62	12.9	10.8	2.09
Jerry Stackhouse	61	63	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.16	17	-4	21	15.6	16.0	-0.34	13.3	10.8	2.56
Devin Harris	41	43	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.09	3	10	-7	15.3	16.1	-0.85	12.1	12.5	-0.46
Devean George	42	43	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.15	0	13	-13	15.5	16.0	-0.51	12.1	12.5	-0.34
Greg Buckner	22	22	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	16	-19	15.0	16.0	-0.99	11.1	12.7	-1.53
Maurice Ager	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	16	-19	16.7	15.7	0.92	8.7	12.4	-3.78
Jose Juan Barea	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	16	-19	16.7	15.7	0.92	8.7	12.4	-3.78
Erick Dampier	33	34	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.28	-13	26	-39	15.8	15.8	0.02	11.3	12.9	-1.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.41,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.51,0.63,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.74,0.77,0.78,0.79,0.8,0.79,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.93,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 84, CHA 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.39,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.74,0.78,0.88,0.92,0.92,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.95,0.94,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.9%
MIL 96, ATL 115	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.59,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.63,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.79,0.77,0.71,0.72,0.76,0.78,0.81,0.92,0.89,0.96,0.98,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%
UTA 82, MEM 92	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.5,0.53,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.61,0.54,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.52,0.61,0.61,0.7,0.62,0.74,0.79,0.77,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.92,0.92,0.91,0.88,0.9,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,1	94.6%