NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	80		Excitement	6.7 [482]		MVP	Jason Terry (DAL): +31.8%
Dallas Mavericks	90		Comeback	2.9 [760]		LVP	Josh Howard (DAL): -31.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Williams	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	11	55%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.04	0.00	11	55%	0.06	2	-0.09	9	11%	-0.15
Udonis Haslem	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	4	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.11,-0.18,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.19,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.11	-0.10	-0.00	19	45%	-0.03	6	-0.18	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.13,-0.2,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.09	-0.17	-0.02	25	47%	-0.07	5	-0.17	10	60%	-0.07

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.32	0.26	0.09	0.03	18	84%	0.38	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.04	0.00	4	67%	0.09	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Adrian Griffin	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	-0.00	6	67%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Van Horn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.02	14	47%	0.03	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.03
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	0.00	11	46%	0.05	3	-0.09	6	83%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	3	12%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.03
Josh Howard	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.26,-0.31,-0.31,-0.32,-0.32	-0.32	-0.19	-0.14	-0.02	14	29%	-0.09	5	-0.23	6	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.8	2.8	35.0	20.4	30.4	3.7	35.2	156.4
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +36.9%

DAL +21.0%

MIA -12.7%

MIA -0.4%

DAL +5.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DAL	NBA	MIA	DAL	NBA
this game	15.9	15.1	15.6	86.0	96.8	104.4
season	15.5	16.4		106.1	109.0
opponent	15.6	15.5		102.9	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.5	16.5	15.1	16.5	15.9
DAL	15.1	14.0	14.9	16.2	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	10	10	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.04	-6	-4	-2	20.7	15.3	5.36	11.0	15.5	-4.54
Dwyane Wade	85	86	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.21	-2	-8	6	15.4	21.2	-5.84	14.9	16.4	-1.49
Shaquille O'Neal	72	72	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.18	-4	-6	2	15.6	16.9	-1.28	16.1	11.5	4.56
Udonis Haslem	66	65	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.09	-7	-3	-4	15.7	16.3	-0.59	14.7	15.9	-1.20
Gary Payton	37	36	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.07	-8	-2	-6	16.6	15.4	1.18	14.3	15.5	-1.18
Antoine Walker	83	83	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.25	-2	-8	6	15.6	18.9	-3.35	15.2	13.8	1.40
James Posey	48	49	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.06	-11	1	-12	16.2	15.6	0.61	14.6	15.6	-0.98
Jason Williams	64	64	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.14	-10	0	-10	16.2	15.3	0.83	15.6	13.8	1.78

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Howard	84	83	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.23	11	-1	12	15.2	13.4	1.78	15.9	16.2	-0.32
Jason Terry	72	72	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.15	12	-2	14	14.8	16.0	-1.16	16.2	15.0	1.24
Erick Dampier	53	52	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.13	12	-2	14	15.0	15.1	-0.12	15.9	15.9	0.06
Dirk Nowitzki	77	78	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.21	7	3	4	15.0	15.4	-0.39	15.2	19.5	-4.32
Devin Harris	36	36	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.10	10	0	10	14.4	15.5	-1.04	16.1	15.8	0.37
Adrian Griffin	26	25	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.04	3	7	-4	15.2	15.0	0.14	17.4	15.4	2.03
Keith Van Horn	22	22	0.03	0.47	-0.43	-0.05	3	7	-4	13.1	15.6	-2.51	16.4	15.8	0.65
DeSagana Diop	29	30	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.08	-2	12	-14	16.3	14.5	1.83	16.8	15.5	1.26
Marquis Daniels	8	9	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.07	3	7	-4	15.7	15.0	0.76	20.7	15.4	5.26
Jerry Stackhouse	58	58	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.20	-9	19	-28	15.6	14.1	1.51	14.4	18.5	-4.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.27,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.44,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.55,0.65,0.66,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.7,0.67,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.78,0.75,0.83,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 106, TOR 112	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.43,0.38,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.27,0.22,0.36,0.36,0.44,0.5,0.6,0.63,0.67,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.74,0.65,0.59,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.77,0.83,0.81,0.78,0.75,0.94,0.94,0.97,1	94.0%
DAL 80, HOU 89	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.47,0.51,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.35,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.76,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.86,0.89,0.99,0.99,1	93.2%
SAC 88, PHX 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.42,0.42,0.55,0.72,0.63,0.52,0.6,0.46,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.88,0.96,0.94,0.87,0.86,0.89,0.89,0.99,1	93.2%