NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	78		Excitement	5.5 [731]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +32.1%
Miami Heat	89		Comeback	1.9 [817]		LVP	Richard Hamilton (DET): -21.9%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lindsey Hunter	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.02	-0.04	8	62%	0.13	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.02	16	44%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Tony Delk	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Evans	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.07	-0.02	0.06	4	80%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	3	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	12	50%	0.04	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Rasheed Wallace	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	13	43%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.03
Dale Davis	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Ben Wallace	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	0.03	4	40%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Richard Hamilton	-0.22	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.18	-0.07	-0.03	15	32%	-0.11	5	-0.11	4	75%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.25,0.25,0.29,0.27,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.32	0.19	0.16	0.02	11	76%	0.37	2	-0.05	19	79%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	-0.00	-0.03	4	70%	0.06	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Antoine Walker	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.03	-0.03	5	54%	0.07	2	-0.02	3	67%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	10	62%	0.09	3	-0.07	6	67%	-0.01
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	5	60%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	0.02	12	54%	0.03	3	-0.08	15	33%	-0.20
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	4	0%	-0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.2	3.6	37.2	19.5	31.6	4.4	37.6	163.2
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +40.9%

MIA +17.7%

DET -13.5%

MIA +4.8%

MIA +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIA	NBA	DET	MIA	NBA
this game	19.0	15.6	15.6	92.9	108.5	104.4
season	16.9	15.5		108.3	106.1
opponent	15.5	15.8		102.3	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	19.4	20.3	21.0	15.8	19.0
MIA	13.0	15.7	16.9	16.9	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Delk	2	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-10	9	4.0	19.4	-15.40	24.0	15.5	8.48
Carlos Delfino	2	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-10	9	4.0	19.4	-15.40	24.0	15.5	8.48
Maurice Evans	16	15	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.04	-1	-10	9	13.9	20.2	-6.30	13.8	16.0	-2.23
Antonio McDyess	38	37	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.13	-1	-10	9	19.6	18.6	1.04	15.9	15.4	0.59
Lindsey Hunter	31	32	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.08	-3	-8	5	18.1	19.6	-1.49	15.5	15.7	-0.15
Dale Davis	14	14	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.07	-4	-7	3	17.6	19.3	-1.67	15.4	15.7	-0.32
Ben Wallace	54	50	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.07	-8	-3	-5	19.9	17.4	2.49	15.4	16.0	-0.57
Rasheed Wallace	47	48	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.05	-9	-2	-7	21.1	16.5	4.60	16.0	15.1	0.96
Chauncey Billups	69	66	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.08	-11	0	-11	19.4	17.3	2.15	16.0	14.1	1.86
Tayshaun Prince	72	71	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.21	-8	-3	-5	19.1	18.4	0.72	15.7	15.3	0.40
Richard Hamilton	75	75	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.22	-8	-3	-5	18.9	20.0	-1.08	15.2	20.0	-4.79

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Posey	53	53	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.23	15	-4	19	16.2	14.6	1.55	18.2	20.5	-2.40
Gary Payton	41	40	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.21	14	-3	17	16.6	14.6	2.02	18.9	19.2	-0.26
Shaquille O'Neal	62	63	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.02	16	-5	21	15.1	17.2	-2.09	19.9	16.4	3.48
Dwyane Wade	76	77	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.19	8	3	5	15.6	16.0	-0.41	19.4	15.1	4.25
Antoine Walker	63	63	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.15	5	6	-1	15.2	17.1	-1.93	18.4	21.0	-2.56
Udonis Haslem	56	59	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.03	1	10	-9	15.7	15.5	0.18	19.0	19.1	-0.06
Alonzo Mourning	11	14	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.09	-2	13	-15	19.5	15.0	4.43	21.4	18.6	2.87
Jason Williams	48	51	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	-0.03	-2	13	-15	14.5	17.2	-2.71	18.6	19.7	-1.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.67,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.73,0.66,0.77,0.83,0.8,0.67,0.69,0.6,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.38,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.73,0.83,0.91,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 96, PHI 106	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.65,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.65,0.68,0.72,0.69,0.67,0.65,0.7,0.73,0.73,0.66,0.7,0.69,0.7,0.69,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.52,0.41,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.85,0.83,0.95,0.93,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1	93.9%
GSW 79, MEM 90	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.56,0.6,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.56,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.61,0.52,0.48,0.35,0.37,0.44,0.56,0.74,0.7,0.67,0.77,0.81,0.79,0.92,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1	92.9%
LAC 104, NYK 110	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.75,0.79,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.62,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.62,0.65,0.8,0.88,0.94,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.99,0.98,1	92.8%