NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	91		Excitement	7.8 [290]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +24.2%
Dallas Mavericks	86		Comeback	2.6 [243]		LVP	Devin Harris (DAL): -37.3%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.28,0.23,0.23,0.28,0.28,0.24,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.24	0.16	0.08	0.00	14	73%	0.34	3	-0.09	13	92%	0.10
Michael Finley	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.07	0.16	0.00	10	73%	0.28	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Tim Duncan	0.09	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11,0,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.09	-0.03	0.11	-0.00	21	46%	0.20	3	-0.11	10	80%	0.03
Brent Barry	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.00	0.04	-0.01	2	100%	0.13	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.01
Robert Horry	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	60%	0.02	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Beno Udrih	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.23	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.16,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.17	-0.05	0.00	15	25%	-0.16	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15	0.15	0.10	0.05	0.01	16	65%	0.23	3	-0.08	8	100%	0.04
Keith Van Horn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.00	0.00	7	62%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	4	60%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.03	-0.00	7	50%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Darrell Armstrong	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Josh Howard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	17	47%	0.02	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.13	-0.08	-0.00	15	31%	-0.10	3	-0.11	2	0%	-0.04
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.16,-0.23,-0.3,-0.37	-0.37	-0.20	-0.20	-0.02	14	23%	-0.17	4	-0.20	2	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.2	4.4	42.9	16.6	25.9	3.8	40.4	164.3
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +34.7%

SAS +29.7%

DAL -16.7%

SAS +0.9%

SAS +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DAL	NBA	SAS	DAL	NBA
this game	14.7	15.4	15.6	96.8	88.7	104.4
season	16.3	16.4		106.0	109.0
opponent	15.6	15.6		102.9	99.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.6	12.1	14.7	15.8	14.7
DAL	14.8	16.0	16.0	14.8	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	78	78	0.91	-0.41	1.31	0.41	17	-12	29	14.6	15.2	-0.63	15.2	16.4	-1.24
Michael Finley	88	91	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.40	6	-1	7	14.8	14.0	0.77	15.4	16.0	-0.62
Tony Parker	69	72	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.26	5	0	5	14.4	15.6	-1.25	14.6	17.8	-3.15
Tim Duncan	60	63	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.45	-4	9	-13	16.1	12.2	3.94	15.6	15.2	0.38
Bruce Bowen	65	68	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.09	1	4	-3	15.8	12.3	3.44	16.1	13.8	2.28
Robert Horry	36	37	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.01	4	1	3	13.3	15.6	-2.25	15.9	15.1	0.76
Nick Van Exel	28	28	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.06	0	5	-5	15.2	14.5	0.65	17.1	14.7	2.37
Beno Udrih	1	1	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	5	-5	1.0	14.9	-13.87	1.0	15.6	-14.57
Brent Barry	43	45	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.11	-4	9	-13	13.5	15.8	-2.32	15.2	15.6	-0.46
Fabricio Oberto	2	2	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.01	0	5	-5	3.5	15.0	-11.47	9.0	15.6	-6.56

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keith Van Horn	29	30	0.16	-0.66	0.82	-0.02	6	-11	17	15.8	15.3	0.48	11.6	16.2	-4.59
DeSagana Diop	14	13	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.06	5	-10	15	12.4	15.9	-3.58	15.8	14.5	1.30
Darrell Armstrong	5	4	0.05	-0.55	0.61	-0.00	2	-7	9	10.0	15.7	-5.72	8.7	15.0	-6.24
Adrian Griffin	32	32	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.05	-2	-3	1	16.9	14.7	2.21	12.9	15.7	-2.76
Jerry Stackhouse	79	75	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.30	1	-6	7	15.2	16.3	-1.12	15.4	12.0	3.41
Marquis Daniels	41	38	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.08	-9	4	-13	15.4	15.4	0.03	12.4	16.3	-3.86
Devin Harris	61	60	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.30	-4	-1	-3	15.3	15.6	-0.34	15.8	12.7	3.11
Erick Dampier	47	47	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.22	-8	3	-11	16.6	14.3	2.32	16.6	12.9	3.66
Dirk Nowitzki	93	89	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.36	-7	2	-9	15.4	15.2	0.18	14.8	13.2	1.61
Josh Howard	84	82	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.37	-9	4	-13	15.2	17.0	-1.82	15.2	11.7	3.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.47,0.52,0.5,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.67,0.66,0.64,0.52,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.66,0.59,0.67,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.31,0.29,0.33,0.38,0.46,0.32,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 86, LAL 85	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.51,0.57,0.64,0.68,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.63,0.54,0.48,0.55,0.67,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.47,0.36,0.53,0.42,0.39,0.28,0.22,0.27,0	92.3%
NJN 95, DEN 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.68,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.48,0.41,0.43,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.18,0.24,0.28,0.31,0.37,0.32,0.27,0	91.8%
NJN 91, ATL 88	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.63,0.69,0.7,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.63,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.42,0.34,0.33,0.42,0.53,0.3,0.35,0.39,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.28,0	91.8%