NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	76		Excitement	3.6 [1106]		MVP	Rasual Butler (MIA): +9.7%
Miami Heat	88		Comeback	1.1 [1187]		LVP	Richard Hamilton (DET): -11.0%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Wallace	0.01	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	8	47%	0.01	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.02
Ronald Dupree	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.01	15	54%	0.02	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.02
Elden Campbell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	0	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	8	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	-0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	11	50%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	-0.03	7	31%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	7	29%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.10	-0.01	-0.03	3	33%	0.00	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.07,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.12	-0.01	-0.02	18	48%	-0.02	5	-0.09	8	87%	-0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.01	-0.03	10	60%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.01	-0.02	12	62%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.01	8	74%	0.07	1	-0.01	3	67%	0.01
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	15	56%	0.04	3	-0.04	6	33%	-0.05
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.01	0.01	9	58%	0.02	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.03
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	0.00	-0.05	3	50%	0.01	2	-0.02	4	25%	-0.01
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.11	-0.01	-0.07	8	39%	-0.01	4	-0.04	2	50%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	3.5	36.6	21.4	26.6	3.7	34.0	152.8
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +31.0%

MIA +3.1%

MIA +1.1%

MIA +11.2%

MIA +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIA	NBA	DET	MIA	NBA
this game	16.8	16.1	15.5	86.4	101.1	104.0
season	16.7	15.7		103.5	107.9
opponent	15.5	15.9		101.1	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	17.3	15.9	17.5	16.7	16.8
MIA	15.4	14.7	17.6	16.8	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ronald Dupree	4	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-16	20	17.2	16.8	0.44	15.0	16.1	-1.13
Elden Campbell	15	16	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.13	3	-15	18	14.3	17.4	-3.09	16.0	16.1	-0.10
Carlos Arroyo	19	19	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.10	-3	-9	6	16.2	17.0	-0.86	14.1	16.6	-2.53
Tayshaun Prince	66	66	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.01	-8	-4	-4	16.6	17.5	-0.89	16.3	15.5	0.80
Antonio McDyess	45	43	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.24	-1	-11	10	16.3	17.4	-1.15	15.1	17.0	-1.95
Chauncey Billups	67	64	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.09	-7	-5	-2	17.2	15.8	1.40	16.2	15.7	0.46
Ben Wallace	69	68	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.08	-8	-4	-4	16.8	17.0	-0.22	15.8	17.0	-1.18
Rasheed Wallace	47	47	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	0.16	-18	6	-24	18.3	15.2	3.06	17.4	14.5	2.83
Lindsey Hunter	30	30	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.07	-11	-1	-10	17.3	16.6	0.71	16.4	15.9	0.54
Richard Hamilton	78	78	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.08	-11	-1	-10	16.7	17.9	-1.21	16.2	14.9	1.33

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	50	49	0.55	-0.05	0.61	-0.15	24	-12	36	16.4	15.7	0.70	17.4	16.1	1.31
Udonis Haslem	77	77	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.10	14	-2	16	15.8	18.0	-2.17	17.3	13.5	3.75
Damon Jones	65	66	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.11	9	3	6	15.5	17.9	-2.45	17.1	16.1	0.98
Eddie Jones	77	76	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.19	4	8	-4	15.8	18.0	-2.17	16.8	16.8	-0.00
Alonzo Mourning	28	29	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.07	7	5	2	15.2	16.5	-1.28	16.4	17.0	-0.62
Shaquille O'Neal	59	59	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.08	5	7	-2	16.5	15.2	1.28	17.0	16.4	0.62
Rasual Butler	41	44	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.13	0	12	-12	16.3	15.9	0.40	16.5	17.2	-0.75
Keyon Dooling	28	29	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.15	-1	13	-14	17.4	15.5	1.88	15.9	17.3	-1.44
Christian Laettner	10	11	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.05	-2	14	-16	18.0	15.8	2.17	13.5	17.3	-3.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.72,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.61,0.73,0.86,0.79,0.86,0.85,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.98,0.95,0.89,0.86,0.92,0.94,0.91,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 94, SAS 107	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.7,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.86,0.85,0.89,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%
BOS 73, HOU 91	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.5,0.6,0.66,0.6,0.67,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.61,0.7,0.7,0.76,0.84,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.95,0.93,0.92,0.88,0.84,0.79,0.9,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	96.0%
NJN 75, MIL 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.82,0.79,0.83,0.88,0.87,0.92,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.93,0.94,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%