NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	94		Excitement	3.6 [1070]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +11.0%
San Antonio Spurs	107		Comeback	1.0 [1179]		LVP	Gary Payton (MIL): -14.2%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Thomas	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.01	-0.02	12	60%	0.11	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Ervin Johnson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	8	60%	0.01	0	0.00	9	89%	0.02
Sam Cassell	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	11	61%	0.03	1	-0.02	9	89%	0.02
Marcus Haislip	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	1	67%	0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	8	50%	0.00	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	18	47%	0.00	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.10	-0.01	-0.03	5	18%	-0.04	2	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Gary Payton	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.12	-0.03	-0.01	11	41%	-0.07	3	-0.07	7	57%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.16	0.00	0.06	16	79%	0.15	2	-0.04	7	100%	0.03
David Robinson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.03	5	67%	0.04	1	0.00	5	40%	-0.03
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.02	8	56%	0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.08	0.01	0.06	9	75%	0.04	1	-0.01	6	100%	0.01
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	6	58%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	8	33%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Danny Ferry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Speedy Claxton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	11	50%	0.05	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	5	40%	0.00	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Steve Kerr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	5	33%	-0.04	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	2.0	28.2	16.7	29.2	2.4	29.2	133.8
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +28.3%

SAS +4.3%

SAS +20.4%

SAS +0.4%

MIL -3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	SAS	NBA	MIL	SAS	NBA
this game	15.8	15.8	15.5	103.3	117.6	101.6
season	15.4	15.7		106.3	102.5
opponent	15.4	15.8		96.9	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.2	17.4	15.1	15.3	15.8
SAS	16.1	12.6	15.5	19.7	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Gadzuric	7	7	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.23	8	-21	29	10.6	16.2	-5.67	21.9	15.3	6.51
Marcus Haislip	9	9	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-17	21	12.7	16.1	-3.48	20.1	15.4	4.73
Toni Kukoc	39	39	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.11	-1	-12	11	13.9	17.2	-3.38	13.9	17.3	-3.37
Joel Przybilla	24	24	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.06	-3	-10	7	16.0	15.7	0.33	14.2	16.4	-2.17
Ervin Johnson	19	20	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.03	-6	-7	1	17.3	15.4	1.85	18.8	15.0	3.79
Sam Cassell	62	62	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.02	-7	-6	-1	15.4	16.7	-1.25	17.0	13.4	3.62
Anthony Mason	54	51	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.21	-16	3	-19	16.5	14.8	1.72	13.5	18.8	-5.32
Michael Redd	61	61	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.25	-1	-12	11	14.8	17.8	-2.93	15.0	17.6	-2.57
Tim Thomas	55	56	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	0.12	-15	2	-17	17.1	13.9	3.21	17.3	13.5	3.74
Desmond Mason	64	65	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.16	-10	-3	-7	16.3	14.6	1.72	16.4	14.4	2.05
Gary Payton	61	61	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	0.00	-18	5	-23	16.6	14.1	2.49	15.1	17.4	-2.27

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	67	65	0.46	0.04	0.43	-0.04	17	-4	21	15.9	15.6	0.36	16.6	13.8	2.85
Bruce Bowen	63	62	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.10	18	-5	23	16.3	14.9	1.38	16.4	14.6	1.84
Speedy Claxton	56	56	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.11	11	2	9	15.7	16.1	-0.39	16.8	14.2	2.56
David Robinson	36	36	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.04	11	2	9	16.7	15.3	1.45	17.5	14.7	2.81
Manu Ginobili	45	46	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.02	7	6	1	13.2	18.4	-5.15	16.1	15.5	0.53
Stephen Jackson	42	42	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.03	8	5	3	16.9	14.9	1.97	16.5	15.2	1.34
Kevin Willis	29	31	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.22	-3	16	-19	14.9	16.3	-1.44	15.0	16.2	-1.27
Malik Rose	41	41	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.08	7	6	1	14.7	16.8	-2.12	14.3	17.0	-2.66
Steve Kerr	20	20	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.03	3	10	-7	14.6	16.2	-1.53	13.7	16.4	-2.63
Steven Smith	24	24	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.34	-10	23	-33	18.9	14.8	4.11	12.5	17.0	-4.49
Tony Parker	23	23	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.02	2	11	-9	16.1	15.8	0.32	15.2	16.0	-0.78
Danny Ferry	9	9	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	19	-25	20.1	15.4	4.73	12.7	16.1	-3.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.7,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.86,0.85,0.89,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 74, NJN 90	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.56,0.54,0.6,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.59,0.64,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.73,0.69,0.66,0.7,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.82,0.87,0.94,0.92,0.92,0.89,0.92,0.97,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.9%
LAC 91, MEM 106	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.73,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.89,0.9,0.9,0.89,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.9%
LAC 67, UTA 86	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.72,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.72,0.75,0.82,0.86,0.88,0.89,0.87,0.92,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.7%