NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	113		Excitement	6.9 [474]		MVP	Rasual Butler (MIA): +14.1%
Detroit Pistons	104		Comeback	3.0 [271]		LVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): -13.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasual Butler	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.09	0.05	0.00	4	100%	0.14	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.04
Eddie Jones	0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.15,0.09,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.08	0.07	0.01	9	73%	0.16	1	-0.02	8	100%	0.06
Damon Jones	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.05	0.05	-0.04	6	42%	0.05	0	0.00	7	43%	-0.02
Udonis Haslem	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.00	6	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	67%	0.00	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Keyon Dooling	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	0.00	5	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	13	63%	0.05	3	-0.08	12	67%	0.01
Christian Laettner	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	0.02	-0.09	0.01	21	60%	-0.01	2	-0.07	18	67%	-0.04

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Elden Campbell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	7	60%	0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0	-0.00	0.05	-0.05	0.01	21	59%	0.03	1	-0.03	14	86%	0.01
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.04	5	25%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.04
Ben Wallace	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	6	44%	-0.05	1	-0.00	6	33%	-0.05
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	14	56%	0.02	3	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	9	48%	-0.08	0	0.00	9	56%	-0.06
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	19	42%	-0.09	1	-0.04	5	100%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.0	2.0	33.9	20.0	32.2	3.6	56.3	178.0
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +45.7%

MIA +11.1%

DET -5.0%

DET -2.6%

MIA +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DET	NBA	MIA	DET	NBA
this game	15.2	15.0	15.5	117.7	109.5	104.0
season	15.7	16.7		107.9	103.5
opponent	15.9	15.5		98.9	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.9	15.8	16.0	13.3	15.2
DET	16.8	14.2	16.0	13.4	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damon Jones	59	59	0.92	-0.42	1.34	0.36	19	-10	29	15.0	15.4	-0.45	15.6	13.9	1.70
Shaquille O'Neal	70	69	0.72	-0.22	0.93	0.28	15	-6	21	15.2	15.2	0.00	15.2	14.5	0.69
Eddie Jones	83	80	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.29	14	-5	19	15.1	15.5	-0.44	15.0	15.1	-0.16
Rasual Butler	33	32	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.27	4	5	-1	14.7	15.4	-0.65	15.8	14.6	1.27
Alonzo Mourning	34	35	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.22	5	4	1	15.4	15.0	0.35	14.9	15.0	-0.09
Udonis Haslem	65	63	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.07	7	2	5	14.7	16.1	-1.34	15.0	15.0	-0.05
Dwyane Wade	76	78	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.09	0	9	-9	15.4	14.2	1.21	14.7	16.5	-1.79
Christian Laettner	23	23	-0.35	0.85	-1.21	-0.09	-9	18	-27	16.0	14.9	1.17	14.6	15.1	-0.57
Keyon Dooling	37	36	-0.42	0.92	-1.34	-0.13	-10	19	-29	15.4	15.0	0.45	13.9	15.6	-1.70

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lindsey Hunter	26	27	0.36	-0.86	1.23	0.22	5	-14	19	13.4	15.6	-2.17	13.9	15.7	-1.76
Elden Campbell	14	15	0.18	-0.68	0.85	0.03	5	-14	19	14.8	15.0	-0.25	15.4	15.1	0.29
Antonio McDyess	32	31	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.04	-2	-7	5	15.0	15.0	0.05	15.3	15.1	0.15
Carlos Arroyo	14	15	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.05	-8	-1	-7	15.5	14.9	0.59	16.3	14.9	1.40
Richard Hamilton	91	92	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.26	-5	-4	-1	15.0	15.0	0.00	15.3	12.7	2.51
Rasheed Wallace	81	81	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.22	-8	-1	-7	15.0	14.9	0.08	15.4	13.9	1.53
Chauncey Billups	84	86	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.29	-6	-3	-3	15.3	13.0	2.26	15.4	12.7	2.74
Ben Wallace	59	61	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.22	-15	6	-21	15.0	15.0	0.00	14.8	15.7	-0.88
Tayshaun Prince	74	72	-0.77	0.27	-1.03	-0.44	-11	2	-13	15.2	14.4	0.79	14.8	16.2	-1.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.49,0.32,0.34,0.27,0.33,0.27,0.18,0.22,0.21,0.26,0.37,0.28,0.34,0.48,0.57,0.72,0.68,0.74,0.47,0.33,0.14,0.04,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 109, SAS 100	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.3,0.37,0.35,0.26,0.25,0.3,0.16,0.23,0.29,0.19,0.34,0.33,0.4,0.54,0.62,0.71,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.22,0.06,0,0	91.1%
CLE 100, PHI 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.43,0.36,0.37,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.2,0.19,0.21,0.26,0.32,0.34,0.28,0.29,0.44,0.54,0.57,0.65,0.75,0.63,0.47,0.4,0.27,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.16,0	91.0%
POR 89, ORL 85	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.37,0.44,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.41,0.36,0.42,0.32,0.28,0.36,0.3,0.27,0.18,0.14,0.11,0.23,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.43,0.53,0.53,0.35,0.28,0.15,0.07,0.01,0.04,0	90.8%