NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	89		Excitement	6.5 [516]		MVP	Jason Richardson (ORL): +22.3%
Orlando Magic	85		Comeback	1.2 [625]		LVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): -23.1%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wesley Matthews	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.10	0.06	-0.00	8	68%	0.16	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.14	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.07	0.07	0.01	18	56%	0.16	1	-0.02	7	43%	-0.08
Brandon Roy	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.04	0.09	-0.01	8	56%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.00	8	56%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	7	36%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Fernandez	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	-0.01	-0.03	6	36%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andre Miller	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.00	-0.04	0.00	11	60%	0.02	3	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01
Gerald Wallace	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.04	11	37%	0.06	2	-0.11	2	50%	-0.00
Marcus Camby	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	4	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.26,0.36,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.22	0.22	0.14	0.08	-0.00	13	79%	0.30	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.15	0.08	0.08	0.01	9	65%	0.15	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.01	0.00	5	73%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Earl Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.00	6	69%	0.06	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Brandon Bass	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	9	47%	0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Quentin Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.08	-0.08	0.01	-0.08	0.01	12	50%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.06,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.07	-0.03	9	50%	0.07	6	-0.22	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.21,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.18	-0.05	0.00	7	14%	-0.10	5	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	2.7	26.2	16.6	24.2	2.5	31.5	127.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +15.9%

ORL -9.2%

POR +11.7%

POR +31.1%

POR +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	ORL	NBA	POR	ORL	NBA
this game	18.3	16.0	15.5	106.0	101.2	105.7
season	16.5	15.2		106.7	106.3
opponent	16.2	15.7		101.1	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	16.2	17.1	20.2	20.4	18.3
ORL	14.4	14.9	15.8	19.6	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaMarcus Aldridge	72	74	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.31	6	-2	8	18.5	16.9	1.60	16.1	15.4	0.68
Andre Miller	58	59	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.34	4	0	4	18.5	17.8	0.64	16.4	15.2	1.20
Wesley Matthews	54	57	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.33	4	0	4	18.8	17.4	1.33	16.5	15.0	1.47
Brandon Roy	42	40	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.37	2	2	0	18.6	18.0	0.67	16.7	15.3	1.43
Marcus Camby	39	37	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.10	7	-3	10	17.6	18.8	-1.20	15.4	16.4	-1.01
Gerald Wallace	57	57	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.35	-5	9	-14	18.4	18.0	0.48	16.3	15.4	0.82
Nicolas Batum	41	41	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.05	4	0	4	17.7	18.8	-1.08	15.2	16.8	-1.62
Patty Mills	26	25	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.05	0	4	-4	17.8	18.5	-0.64	15.2	16.4	-1.20
Rudy Fernandez	31	30	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.01	-2	6	-8	17.7	18.6	-0.86	15.2	16.4	-1.19

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Quentin Richardson	4	4	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.01	-1	-3	2	10.7	16.3	-5.51	20.0	18.2	1.80
Jason Richardson	54	54	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.14	3	-7	10	16.0	16.1	-0.10	18.5	17.9	0.55
Earl Clark	54	54	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.38	6	-10	16	17.0	14.2	2.80	18.1	18.5	-0.39
Gilbert Arenas	43	44	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.38	6	-10	16	17.0	14.9	2.10	19.1	17.4	1.64
Jameer Nelson	41	40	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.00	-10	6	-16	14.9	17.0	-2.10	17.4	19.1	-1.64
Ryan Anderson	65	66	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.42	2	-6	8	16.0	15.8	0.20	19.0	15.7	3.33
JJ Redick	41	41	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.17	-7	3	-10	16.9	15.1	1.81	18.0	18.6	-0.61
Brandon Bass	45	44	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.03	-15	11	-26	15.2	16.9	-1.72	17.2	19.4	-2.22
Hedo Turkoglu	73	73	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.46	-4	0	-4	15.5	19.3	-3.77	18.3	18.1	0.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.37,0.44,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.41,0.36,0.42,0.32,0.28,0.36,0.3,0.27,0.18,0.14,0.11,0.23,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.43,0.53,0.53,0.35,0.28,0.15,0.07,0.01,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 97, HOU 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.48,0.46,0.3,0.34,0.43,0.58,0.47,0.41,0.28,0.19,0.02,0.01,0,0	93.1%
DET 106, MIA 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.28,0.33,0.37,0.29,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.27,0.23,0.22,0.24,0.1,0.17,0.21,0.3,0.22,0.34,0.42,0.47,0.36,0.29,0.33,0.15,0.04,0.04,0.04,0	92.9%
HOU 97, NYK 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.39,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.32,0.37,0.33,0.24,0.21,0.29,0.25,0.21,0.31,0.29,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.47,0.38,0.47,0.31,0.24,0.13,0.07,0.05,0.02,0,0	92.7%