NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	97		Excitement	6.7 [429]		MVP	Steve Novak (HOU): +21.9%
Houston Rockets	89		Comeback	1.6 [478]		LVP	Tracy McGrady (HOU): -21.0%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Korver	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.12	0.07	0.02	9	81%	0.20	1	-0.04	3	67%	0.01
Matt Harpring	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.04	0.10	0.00	7	56%	0.14	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Ronnie Price	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.04	-0.00	5	60%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrei Kirilenko	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.06	0.01	12	61%	0.14	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.01
Ronnie Brewer	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
CJ Miles	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	-0.01	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.04	0.01	14	38%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
Mehmet Okur	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	0.02	9	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Deron Williams	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	0.02	0.04	10	63%	0.09	5	-0.12	7	100%	0.04
Paul Millsap	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	3	50%	0.01	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Novak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.12	0.10	0.00	4	125%	0.22	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.13	0.07	0.05	9	83%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	6	67%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luis Scola	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	12	50%	0.03	2	-0.07	12	50%	-0.08
Luther Head	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bonzi Wells	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Carl Landry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	6	31%	-0.05	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.02	0.01	13	31%	-0.10	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.15,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.17,-0.11,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.10	-0.07	0.04	24	41%	-0.08	4	-0.13	3	0%	-0.10

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	1.7	26.2	15.3	23.6	2.6	33.2	127.3
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +22.1%

UTA +26.1%

HOU -7.2%

UTA +3.8%

UTA +5.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	HOU	NBA	UTA	HOU	NBA
this game	15.7	16.5	15.4	109.0	98.9	105.7
season	15.5	16.2		111.2	104.6
opponent	15.2	15.0		100.3	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	15.3	12.7	18.2	17.2	15.7
HOU	16.0	16.6	17.0	16.2	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrei Kirilenko	56	56	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.25	13	-5	18	16.3	14.7	1.65	17.1	15.5	1.60
Kyle Korver	44	44	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.24	12	-4	16	14.7	16.7	-2.03	16.4	16.6	-0.20
Mehmet Okur	77	77	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.26	10	-2	12	15.6	16.5	-0.92	16.7	14.8	1.89
Carlos Boozer	69	69	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.24	9	-1	10	16.4	13.4	2.91	16.7	15.8	0.86
Deron Williams	69	69	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.22	8	0	8	15.9	15.0	0.85	16.9	15.1	1.73
Ronnie Price	20	21	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.04	0	8	-8	15.0	15.9	-0.85	15.1	16.9	-1.73
CJ Miles	2	3	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.03	0	8	-8	18.5	15.6	2.86	13.0	16.6	-3.59
Paul Millsap	32	34	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.03	-3	11	-14	14.6	16.3	-1.74	15.4	17.1	-1.65
Ronnie Brewer	43	43	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.00	-4	12	-16	16.6	14.8	1.78	16.8	16.1	0.67
Matt Harpring	33	34	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.02	-5	13	-18	14.7	16.3	-1.65	15.5	17.1	-1.60

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Novak	10	9	0.23	-0.73	0.96	-0.01	8	-16	24	15.8	16.5	-0.75	20.0	15.2	4.77
Luther Head	15	14	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.02	0	-8	8	14.9	16.8	-1.84	12.5	16.3	-3.81
Bonzi Wells	19	17	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.01	-2	-6	4	14.6	17.0	-2.33	13.2	16.3	-3.13
Aaron Brooks	31	29	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.09	-5	-3	-2	16.1	16.6	-0.52	14.8	16.1	-1.31
Charles Hayes	44	44	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.01	-9	1	-10	17.2	15.7	1.53	15.1	16.3	-1.22
Rafer Alston	59	60	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.18	-3	-5	2	16.6	16.1	0.52	16.1	14.8	1.31
Luis Scola	75	74	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.29	-1	-7	6	16.2	17.9	-1.76	16.1	13.6	2.54
Shane Battier	64	65	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.20	-5	-3	-2	16.8	15.7	1.03	16.0	14.9	1.14
Carl Landry	42	41	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.09	-10	2	-12	17.0	16.0	1.04	14.3	16.9	-2.67
Tracy McGrady	70	70	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.22	-6	-2	-4	16.7	15.7	0.92	16.4	13.1	3.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.48,0.46,0.3,0.34,0.43,0.58,0.47,0.41,0.28,0.19,0.02,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 105, TOR 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.53,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.26,0.34,0.57,0.47,0.53,0.36,0.28,0.14,0.07,0.03,0.01,0	93.3%
PHX 105, ATL 94	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.5,0.44,0.49,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.33,0.35,0.28,0.15,0.19,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.21,0.31,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.3,0.38,0.37,0.47,0.46,0.28,0.19,0.19,0.04,0,0	93.2%
POR 89, ORL 85	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.37,0.44,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.41,0.36,0.42,0.32,0.28,0.36,0.3,0.27,0.18,0.14,0.11,0.23,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.43,0.53,0.53,0.35,0.28,0.15,0.07,0.01,0.04,0	93.1%