NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	105		Excitement	7.0 [339]		MVP	Mike Dunleavy (MIL): +16.5%
Toronto Raptors	99		Comeback	1.6 [581]		LVP	Jerryd Bayless (TOR): -14.5%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Dunleavy	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.13	0.03	0.00	10	78%	0.16	0	0.00	3	100%	0.06
Stephen Jackson	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15	0.04	0.08	-0.03	11	61%	0.19	2	-0.04	6	50%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	0.14	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.14,0.14	0.16	0.02	0.05	12	83%	0.25	3	-0.11	6	83%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	4	71%	0.06	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Jon Leuer	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Larry Sanders	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	1	0%	0.01	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	15	53%	0.10	6	-0.15	8	75%	-0.04
Shaun Livingston	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	0.00	3	0%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.00	-0.01	12	34%	-0.02	3	-0.10	8	50%	-0.02

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Johnson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	11	68%	0.13	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.17,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.12	-0.04	0.04	18	64%	0.11	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	5	64%	0.06	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	9	44%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ed Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.03	-0.02	6	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Leandro Barbosa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	0.01	8	61%	0.03	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	11	41%	-0.03	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.03
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13	-0.13	-0.05	-0.06	0.02	12	37%	-0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.14	-0.11	-0.03	-0.00	10	30%	-0.07	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.5	1.5	31.3	15.4	24.3	2.7	37.4	133.1
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +56.9%

TOR -1.6%

MIL +4.5%

TOR -14.2%

MIL +4.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	TOR	NBA	MIL	TOR	NBA
this game	14.0	15.7	15.6	109.4	101.0	102.8
season	14.6	16.5		103.8	98.9
opponent	15.2	15.6		102.9	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.7	14.9	13.7	13.1	14.0
TOR	15.3	18.5	16.8	12.6	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stephen Jackson	67	68	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.26	17	-11	28	13.5	15.1	-1.60	15.5	16.0	-0.55
Mike Dunleavy	64	66	0.72	-0.22	0.93	0.31	14	-8	22	13.6	14.9	-1.33	15.5	15.9	-0.33
Brandon Jennings	71	72	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.38	5	1	4	13.6	15.2	-1.54	15.1	17.3	-2.20
Drew Gooden	69	70	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.32	7	-1	8	14.3	13.2	1.11	16.1	14.4	1.71
Carlos Delfino	70	70	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.32	-2	8	-10	14.0	14.2	-0.18	14.7	17.9	-3.19
Luc Mbah a Moute	53	53	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.01	2	4	-2	13.9	14.2	-0.34	15.9	15.4	0.55
Jon Leuer	9	11	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	8	-10	12.9	14.1	-1.25	17.3	15.4	1.82
Beno Udrih	25	26	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.06	1	5	-4	15.2	13.6	1.54	17.3	15.1	2.20
Larry Sanders	23	24	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.00	-1	7	-8	15.3	13.6	1.63	15.9	15.6	0.29
Shaun Livingston	29	30	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	0.06	-11	17	-28	15.1	13.5	1.60	16.0	15.5	0.55

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Carter	10	11	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.00	1	-7	8	15.0	15.7	-0.73	17.2	13.6	3.57
Jerryd Bayless	49	49	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	-4	2	16.7	14.6	2.16	14.9	13.1	1.75
Jamaal Magloire	8	7	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.05	-4	-2	-2	21.9	15.1	6.77	14.9	14.0	0.90
Leandro Barbosa	29	28	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.03	-4	-2	-2	15.9	15.5	0.39	13.3	14.3	-0.99
Amir Johnson	50	51	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.24	2	-8	10	15.0	16.3	-1.29	14.7	13.2	1.55
James Johnson	66	63	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.15	-2	-4	2	14.9	17.3	-2.42	13.1	15.7	-2.55
Ed Davis	47	45	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.09	-6	0	-6	16.9	14.5	2.42	14.5	13.6	0.96
Jose Calderon	71	68	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.36	3	-9	12	15.1	17.1	-2.01	13.3	15.7	-2.44
Rasual Butler	26	27	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.24	-6	0	-6	16.7	15.3	1.41	15.5	13.4	2.08
DeMar DeRozan	79	77	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.36	-2	-4	2	15.1	18.2	-3.11	13.4	16.4	-2.93
Linas Kleiza	55	54	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.27	-10	4	-14	15.3	16.1	-0.83	13.7	14.4	-0.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.53,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.26,0.34,0.57,0.47,0.53,0.36,0.28,0.14,0.07,0.03,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 104, MIN 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.42,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.41,0.39,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.34,0.42,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.35,0.37,0.48,0.48,0.34,0.3,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.29,0.17,0.11,0.22,0.01,0,0	93.8%
UTA 97, HOU 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.48,0.46,0.3,0.34,0.43,0.58,0.47,0.41,0.28,0.19,0.02,0.01,0,0	93.3%
PHX 94, SAS 81	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.35,0.35,0.39,0.38,0.44,0.36,0.3,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.33,0.42,0.49,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.64,0.53,0.4,0.25,0.07,0,0,0	93.3%