NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	106		Excitement	6.3 [531]		MVP	Ben Gordon (DET): +46.0%
Miami Heat	99		Comeback	1.2 [185]		LVP	Mario Chalmers (MIA): -13.2%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Gordon	0.46	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.34,0.43,0.43,0.46	0.30	0.17	0.02	21	78%	0.49	1	-0.03	8	100%	0.06
Tayshaun Prince	0.15	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.15	0.15	0.03	0.03	19	67%	0.17	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Charlie Villanueva	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.01	11	46%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.04
Jonas Jerebko	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Bynum	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	9	48%	0.06	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
DaJuan Summers	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	7	43%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.01	5	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.04
Austin Daye	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	1	0%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.23	0.13	0.11	0.01	10	80%	0.23	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.02	0.01	10	67%	0.10	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Quentin Richardson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.01	8	53%	0.07	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.06,0,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	-0.03	0.01	11	62%	0.10	1	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	60%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	7	64%	0.05	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.07	-0.07	0.02	8	76%	0.13	5	-0.15	9	89%	0.02
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.05	-0.02	8	43%	0.05	5	-0.18	5	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.4	30.0	16.0	30.0	2.0	33.3	136.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +13.6%

MIA -7.5%

DET +11.3%

DET +27.7%

DET +4.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIA	NBA	DET	MIA	NBA
this game	18.4	16.8	15.3	129.3	120.7	106.0
season	16.8	16.2		104.0	104.4
opponent	15.4	15.2		102.8	109.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	14.8	18.7	21.8	19.0	18.4
MIA	15.9	20.2	15.2	16.1	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tayshaun Prince	72	71	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.27	15	-8	23	18.8	15.3	3.49	17.5	11.9	5.60
Ben Gordon	66	65	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.32	11	-4	15	17.6	21.4	-3.74	15.7	20.9	-5.21
Will Bynum	51	49	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.20	7	0	7	18.7	17.8	0.90	16.0	17.9	-1.88
Jason Maxiell	39	39	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.38	-1	8	-9	17.1	19.6	-2.51	16.3	17.1	-0.81
Charlie Villanueva	30	31	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.21	2	5	-3	19.8	17.5	2.31	18.5	15.7	2.78
Jonas Jerebko	52	51	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.08	5	2	3	17.5	19.8	-2.31	15.7	18.5	-2.78
Ben Wallace	43	43	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.03	6	1	5	19.6	17.1	2.51	17.1	16.3	0.81
Chucky Atkins	31	32	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.04	2	5	-3	17.8	18.7	-0.90	18.0	16.0	1.99
DaJuan Summers	9	11	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.03	2	5	-3	18.9	18.3	0.59	22.1	15.9	6.16
Austin Daye	17	18	-0.39	0.89	-1.28	0.02	-14	21	-35	19.1	18.2	0.95	14.3	17.4	-3.10

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Udonis Haslem	46	44	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.23	6	-13	19	16.4	17.2	-0.78	18.2	18.6	-0.35
Dorell Wright	42	43	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.26	6	-13	19	16.9	16.6	0.26	18.4	18.4	0.01
Jermaine O'Neal	36	35	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.03	-4	-3	-1	19.1	14.9	4.25	19.7	17.4	2.25
Joel Anthony	38	39	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.15	-2	-5	3	15.2	18.1	-2.93	17.2	19.4	-2.16
Carlos Arroyo	49	50	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.10	-4	-3	-1	18.6	14.1	4.51	19.6	16.4	3.16
Mario Chalmers	48	48	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.23	-1	-6	5	16.7	16.8	-0.12	17.8	19.2	-1.38
Quentin Richardson	41	39	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.03	-13	6	-19	16.6	16.9	-0.34	18.4	18.4	-0.01
Dwyane Wade	66	66	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.26	-9	2	-11	15.5	22.1	-6.59	17.8	20.5	-2.65
Michael Beasley	44	46	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.18	-14	7	-21	16.5	17.0	-0.50	18.5	18.2	0.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.28,0.33,0.37,0.29,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.27,0.23,0.22,0.24,0.1,0.17,0.21,0.3,0.22,0.34,0.42,0.47,0.36,0.29,0.33,0.15,0.04,0.04,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 90, WAS 79	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.35,0.29,0.26,0.31,0.39,0.42,0.32,0.37,0.36,0.24,0.21,0.29,0.2,0.22,0.1,0.08,0.18,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.28,0.32,0.31,0.24,0.28,0.19,0.16,0.02,0,0	93.4%
NJN 95, PHI 84	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.34,0.4,0.33,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.56,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.33,0.46,0.35,0.29,0.36,0.36,0.24,0.35,0.35,0.21,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.34,0.26,0.26,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.29,0.22,0.1,0.07,0.02,0,0	93.2%
LAL 95, ORL 90	0.5,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.38,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.39,0.38,0.46,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.35,0.33,0.27,0.33,0.2,0.17,0.16,0.18,0.19,0.29,0.3,0.22,0.25,0.24,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.22,0.01,0,0	92.9%