NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	112		Excitement	5.2 [827]		MVP	Jannero Pargo (CHI): +32.6%
Chicago Bulls	110		Comeback	1.1 [590]		LVP	Kirk Hinrich (CHI): -15.2%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gilbert Arenas	0.27	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,0.27	-0.14	0.36	-0.06	14	43%	0.35	4	-0.07	9	67%	-0.00
Brendan Haywood	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.11	0.01	0.02	10	77%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Ruffin	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	3	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	13	63%	0.07	3	-0.04	4	0%	-0.02
Jared Jeffries	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.01	0.02	9	67%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Juan Dixon	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	6	50%	0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Peeler	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Larry Hughes	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	24	53%	0.01	2	-0.04	14	71%	-0.03
Etan Thomas	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	3	43%	0.01	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jannero Pargo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.33	0.33	0.10	0.31	0.08	4	100%	0.33	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	19	61%	0.07	3	-0.05	6	83%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.07	-0.00	0.05	11	71%	0.04	1	-0.02	9	44%	-0.02
Eric Piatkowski	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lawrence Funderburke	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	9	44%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Othella Harrington	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	8	60%	0.01	3	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Antonio Davis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	4	30%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.12	-0.01	-0.01	8	17%	-0.09	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15	-0.15	-0.03	-0.09	0.04	19	53%	-0.07	4	-0.08	5	60%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.1	2.7	34.0	19.4	27.6	3.5	48.3	165.6
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +34.4%

WAS +4.9%

WAS +9.7%

CHI -1.9%

WAS +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	CHI	NBA	WAS	CHI	NBA
this game	14.3	14.6	15.5	112.0	111.1	104.0
season	14.7	15.1		104.7	100.1
opponent	15.4	15.5		98.9	105.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	12.2	15.9	15.7	13.8	14.3
CHI	14.4	14.7	16.3	13.3	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brendan Haywood	66	69	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.11	15	-13	28	14.0	14.9	-0.88	15.4	12.8	2.65
Anthony Peeler	8	7	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.34	6	-4	10	12.6	14.5	-1.85	9.1	15.0	-5.89
Gilbert Arenas	100	99	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.44	2	0	2	14.3	0.0	14.33	14.6	0.0	14.62
Jared Jeffries	83	83	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.29	6	-4	10	13.9	16.4	-2.44	14.9	13.4	1.48
Larry Hughes	94	92	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.39	2	0	2	14.1	17.3	-3.20	14.3	18.1	-3.80
Antawn Jamison	73	74	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.21	3	-1	4	13.4	16.8	-3.40	15.4	12.3	3.13
Juan Dixon	24	23	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.26	-7	9	-16	17.6	13.3	4.28	14.2	14.7	-0.58
Etan Thomas	32	29	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.24	-11	13	-24	15.1	14.0	1.17	13.1	15.3	-2.19
Michael Ruffin	20	19	-0.26	0.76	-1.01	-0.08	-6	8	-14	16.8	13.7	3.09	13.8	14.8	-1.02

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Gordon	68	70	0.25	-0.75	1.01	-0.27	18	-20	38	13.8	16.3	-2.48	15.0	12.7	2.28
Adrian Griffin	19	21	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.07	0	-2	2	14.1	14.7	-0.63	12.8	14.7	-1.98
Eric Piatkowski	15	15	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.04	-5	3	-8	16.1	14.4	1.71	13.5	14.5	-0.94
Jannero Pargo	9	9	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.23	4	-6	10	9.9	15.1	-5.20	7.9	15.0	-7.08
Lawrence Funderburke	5	6	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.04	-6	4	-10	12.0	14.8	-2.76	13.0	14.4	-1.41
Othella Harrington	42	40	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.02	-8	6	-14	16.6	13.1	3.52	14.7	14.1	0.57
Chris Duhon	68	69	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.26	0	-2	2	15.0	13.7	1.32	14.8	13.2	1.60
Tyson Chandler	74	76	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.52	7	-9	16	13.7	17.3	-3.56	14.9	12.4	2.57
Andres Nocioni	56	56	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.01	-14	12	-26	15.1	14.0	1.17	14.7	13.9	0.79
Kirk Hinrich	83	83	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.42	0	-2	2	14.7	14.0	0.73	14.4	14.1	0.26
Antonio Davis	56	55	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.51	-6	4	-10	14.8	14.3	0.47	13.3	15.6	-2.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.32,0.33,0.29,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.31,0.29,0.31,0.24,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.25,0.16,0.14,0.11,0.05,0.13,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.13,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 104, BOS 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.32,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.3,0.29,0.21,0.22,0.28,0.25,0.24,0.18,0.23,0.18,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.16,0.03,0,0,0,0	96.3%
PHX 106, LAL 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.32,0.33,0.32,0.31,0.33,0.29,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.31,0.18,0.19,0.26,0.17,0.23,0.16,0.16,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0	96.0%
NJN 87, SAC 73	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.46,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.33,0.29,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.25,0.26,0.22,0.23,0.25,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.0%