NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	102		Excitement	1.8 [472]		MVP	Michael Finley (DAL): +20.3%
Dallas Mavericks	95		Comeback	3.1 [519]		LVP	Walt Williams (DAL): -16.4%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.14	0.06	0.01	12	81%	0.23	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Stephen Jackson	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	0.01	12	61%	0.13	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0.05	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.01	0.05	-0.01	14	60%	0.13	3	-0.08	7	71%	-0.01
Malik Rose	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,0.02,0.05,0.05	-0.01	0.06	0.00	5	57%	0.08	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Steve Kerr	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	0	100%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Speedy Claxton	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	1	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	22	48%	-0.00	2	-0.02	8	75%	-0.01
David Robinson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.10	0.03	-0.01	8	22%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.12	0.07	-0.01	19	64%	0.23	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Steve Nash	0,0,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	-0.00	19	61%	0.16	3	-0.08	3	67%	-0.01
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.03	-0.00	8	44%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raja Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	3	56%	-0.00	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.02
Adrian Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.00	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.06	-0.06	0.02	22	48%	-0.04	4	-0.10	2	50%	-0.02
Walt Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.10	-0.08	-0.02	9	35%	-0.03	3	-0.13	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.6	3.8	31.9	21.5	23.5	3.7	43.4	155.2
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +19.4%

SAS +1.1%

SAS +19.1%

SAS +6.4%

SAS +4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DAL	NBA	SAS	DAL	NBA
this game	16.8	15.8	15.5	115.9	106.7	101.6
season	15.7	15.1		102.5	108.6
opponent	15.3	15.4		102.0	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.9	16.9	16.2	19.2	16.8
DAL	15.7	19.1	14.5	14.1	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Rose	54	56	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.21	15	-8	23	18.2	14.5	3.67	16.7	14.1	2.66
Tony Parker	80	82	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.27	12	-5	17	16.9	15.6	1.28	15.7	16.1	-0.41
Manu Ginobili	59	60	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.21	14	-7	21	15.4	19.6	-4.23	16.3	14.6	1.80
Tim Duncan	83	83	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.34	4	3	1	16.7	19.0	-2.35	15.2	24.2	-9.01
Stephen Jackson	66	66	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.18	8	-1	9	16.7	17.0	-0.23	15.4	16.7	-1.26
Steve Kerr	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.12	4	3	1	0.0	17.0	-16.98	5.0	15.9	-10.89
Bruce Bowen	53	54	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.32	-12	19	-31	17.9	15.1	2.73	15.4	16.3	-0.95
David Robinson	36	36	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.03	-5	12	-17	16.2	17.2	-0.95	16.1	15.5	0.58
Speedy Claxton	8	7	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.02	-5	12	-17	15.6	16.9	-1.28	16.1	15.7	0.41

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Raef LaFrentz	54	54	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.19	2	-9	11	15.8	15.7	0.08	18.3	14.4	3.91
Steve Nash	77	78	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.30	5	-12	17	15.0	20.4	-5.38	16.4	20.0	-3.63
Adrian Griffin	17	19	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.08	-6	-1	-5	16.2	15.7	0.51	17.1	16.7	0.34
Raja Bell	23	21	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.04	-10	3	-13	19.1	14.6	4.48	15.9	17.1	-1.15
Walt Williams	61	59	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.20	-2	-5	3	15.1	17.1	-1.96	15.5	19.4	-3.97
Eduardo Najera	46	45	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.28	-2	-5	3	15.6	15.9	-0.32	17.8	15.7	2.17
Michael Finley	89	87	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.24	-7	0	-7	15.8	0.0	15.76	16.7	28.0	-11.34
Nick Van Exel	78	77	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.21	-15	8	-23	16.0	14.4	1.60	16.8	16.4	0.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.56,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.71,0.7,0.62,0.55,0.48,0.37,0.25,0.22,0.1,0.12,0.27,0.27,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.14,0.29,0.05,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 94, NYK 83	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.69,0.69,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.15,0.24,0.32,0.17,0.09,0.13,0.19,0.07,0.04,0,0	93.3%
PHX 97, UTA 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.62,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.63,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.52,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.63,0.55,0.55,0.69,0.76,0.68,0.62,0.55,0.59,0.48,0.52,0.44,0.22,0.19,0.25,0.29,0.27,0.21,0.15,0.17,0.26,0.16,0.04,0,0	93.0%
PHI 92, NOH 86	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.7,0.68,0.75,0.67,0.67,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.48,0.44,0.33,0.28,0.19,0.15,0.25,0.25,0.3,0.17,0.29,0.14,0.14,0.04,0.09,0.01,0	92.3%