NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	94		Excitement	5.7 [660]		MVP	Allan Houston (NYK): +14.2%
New York Knicks	83		Comeback	2.6 [352]		LVP	Clar. Weatherspoon (NYK): -14.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rod Strickland	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.04	0.01	9	64%	0.09	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Jim Jackson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07	0.02	0.05	-0.01	11	58%	0.08	1	-0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Eddie Jones	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.01	12	60%	0.05	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	7	57%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.03	-0.00	8	44%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Gatling	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	19	46%	0.02	2	-0.05	8	87%	0.00
Kendall Gill	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	3	12%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Brian Grant	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	11	42%	-0.02	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.00

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Allan Houston	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.13,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.07	0.05	-0.02	21	58%	0.16	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.04
Charlie Ward	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.01	0.01	3	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.03	-0.03	17	52%	0.11	2	-0.07	6	50%	-0.04
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Felton Spencer	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Latrell Sprewell	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.03	0.04	13	52%	-0.05	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.02
Mark Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.05	-0.02	7	14%	-0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Othella Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.12	-0.03	-0.02	3	0%	-0.07	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.03
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.12	-0.03	-0.00	11	31%	-0.09	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.3	28.1	16.7	23.2	2.6	35.4	131.7
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +18.6%

MIA +4.2%

MIA +11.5%

MIA +16.8%

NYK -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NYK	NBA	MIA	NYK	NBA
this game	16.8	15.0	15.6	103.3	92.2	102.3
season	16.5	15.9		96.6	99.6
opponent	15.6	15.8		103.9	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.0	17.2	15.5	17.4	16.8
NYK	15.0	15.5	15.8	13.9	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaPhonso Ellis	47	47	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.09	14	-3	17	17.4	16.1	1.31	15.0	15.1	-0.09
Jim Jackson	64	64	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.21	9	2	7	16.7	16.9	-0.14	15.6	13.7	1.87
Rod Strickland	63	62	0.37	0.13	0.25	-0.01	13	-2	15	16.4	17.6	-1.13	14.8	15.5	-0.75
Alonzo Mourning	77	78	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.22	5	6	-1	16.4	19.1	-2.69	15.1	14.4	0.70
Brian Grant	56	54	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.11	6	5	1	17.5	15.7	1.80	15.1	14.9	0.22
Kendall Gill	58	58	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.19	2	9	-7	15.9	18.4	-2.47	15.4	14.3	1.15
Eddie Jones	57	56	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.05	8	3	5	17.0	16.4	0.61	13.5	17.5	-4.03
Eddie House	26	25	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.12	0	11	-11	18.0	16.3	1.69	15.9	14.7	1.24
Chris Gatling	7	6	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.01	-2	13	-15	16.1	16.8	-0.70	16.5	14.9	1.58

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charlie Ward	31	32	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.08	4	-15	19	15.5	14.8	0.66	17.7	16.3	1.43
Shandon Anderson	18	17	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.01	1	-12	13	15.3	15.0	0.32	17.8	16.6	1.20
Felton Spencer	7	7	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.01	-2	-9	7	12.9	15.2	-2.35	17.0	16.8	0.23
Othella Harrington	25	26	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.11	-2	-9	7	16.0	14.7	1.30	18.3	16.2	2.18
Kurt Thomas	78	79	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.16	-6	-5	-1	15.1	14.7	0.31	16.8	17.0	-0.24
Clar. Weatherspoon	70	70	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.10	-12	1	-13	14.9	15.6	-0.74	16.2	18.7	-2.44
Latrell Sprewell	84	86	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.19	-9	-2	-7	15.2	12.2	3.06	16.8	16.8	-0.01
Mark Jackson	59	59	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.10	-15	4	-19	14.8	15.5	-0.66	16.3	17.7	-1.43
Allan Houston	78	79	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.15	-14	3	-17	14.7	16.8	-2.09	16.6	18.2	-1.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.69,0.69,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.15,0.24,0.32,0.17,0.09,0.13,0.19,0.07,0.04,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 92, NOH 86	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.7,0.68,0.75,0.67,0.67,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.48,0.44,0.33,0.28,0.19,0.15,0.25,0.25,0.3,0.17,0.29,0.14,0.14,0.04,0.09,0.01,0	94.1%
MIN 77, UTA 66	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.61,0.65,0.55,0.45,0.41,0.32,0.36,0.3,0.19,0.3,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0	93.9%
MIN 105, GSW 97	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.62,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.37,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.28,0.32,0.21,0.12,0.07,0.14,0.04,0.01,0,0	93.9%