NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	99		Excitement	5.5 [685]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +23.1%
Dallas Mavericks	112		Comeback	1.3 [794]		LVP	Vlade Divac (SAC): -19.2%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jim Jackson	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.19	0.05	0.03	12	92%	0.25	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Bibby	0.08	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.04	0.02	20	57%	0.11	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Bobby Jackson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	-0.06	0.02	-0.05	13	40%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Keon Clark	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	-0.02	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.03	-0.05	0.01	15	57%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	7	37%	-0.03	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Doug Christie	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.02	-0.02	6	25%	-0.09	1	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Vlade Divac	-0.19	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.14	-0.05	0.00	12	34%	-0.15	2	-0.04	8	62%	-0.03

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.17	0.04	-0.02	20	68%	0.23	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Raja Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.03	-0.03	9	67%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Walt Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.00	3	83%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	18	55%	0.05	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.01
Steve Nash	0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	15	55%	0.08	3	-0.07	3	100%	0.02
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	5	40%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	16	51%	-0.01	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	3.5	29.4	19.7	26.3	4.3	29.6	137.2
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +43.2%

SAC -2.2%

DAL +8.9%

DAL +0.2%

SAC -0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	DAL	NBA	SAC	DAL	NBA
this game	14.3	15.5	15.5	103.1	115.5	101.6
season	14.0	15.1		104.4	108.6
opponent	15.3	15.7		102.0	98.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	15.8	15.1	16.6	10.1	14.3
DAL	13.6	15.6	14.7	18.0	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keon Clark	13	13	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.01	-3	-10	7	15.2	14.2	1.04	13.8	15.8	-2.00
Jim Jackson	62	62	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.10	-6	-7	1	12.9	17.0	-4.17	15.7	15.1	0.61
Hedo Turkoglu	37	38	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.05	-8	-5	-3	16.1	13.2	2.93	14.5	16.1	-1.61
Bobby Jackson	62	64	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.12	-6	-7	1	12.7	17.3	-4.58	16.0	14.5	1.59
Doug Christie	66	65	-0.34	-0.17	-0.17	-0.07	-9	-4	-5	14.5	13.9	0.68	15.7	15.2	0.47
Vlade Divac	64	64	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.04	-11	-2	-9	16.2	10.6	5.56	15.1	16.2	-1.07
Peja Stojakovic	92	93	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.11	-10	-3	-7	14.2	16.2	-2.00	15.4	17.7	-2.34
Mike Bibby	84	86	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.11	-12	-1	-11	14.2	15.2	-1.05	15.9	12.5	3.44

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Raja Bell	65	67	0.74	-0.24	0.98	-0.02	26	-13	39	15.3	16.0	-0.69	14.6	13.7	0.97
Dirk Nowitzki	91	89	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.15	7	6	1	15.5	15.0	0.54	14.1	17.4	-3.34
Michael Finley	93	92	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.15	7	6	1	15.7	10.0	5.74	14.4	13.5	0.87
Steve Nash	81	79	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.11	6	7	-1	15.6	14.9	0.68	13.8	16.7	-2.88
Nick Van Exel	73	71	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.15	4	9	-5	16.1	13.6	2.50	13.1	17.8	-4.63
Shawn Bradley	35	33	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.07	4	9	-5	16.7	14.9	1.80	15.6	13.7	1.89
Walt Williams	12	11	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.02	7	6	1	12.1	16.0	-3.90	13.5	14.4	-0.89
Raef LaFrentz	26	29	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.02	4	9	-5	14.3	16.0	-1.69	17.4	13.0	4.36
Eduardo Najera	9	9	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.01	0	13	-13	12.0	15.9	-3.86	14.8	14.3	0.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.54,0.5,0.58,0.64,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.71,0.74,0.73,0.59,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.73,0.77,0.72,0.69,0.79,0.74,0.79,0.85,0.81,0.85,0.86,0.88,0.9,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 84, SAS 98	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.6,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.57,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.7,0.78,0.82,0.81,0.78,0.7,0.87,0.77,0.94,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1	94.3%
DAL 97, HOU 104	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.63,0.63,0.55,0.62,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.68,0.73,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.65,0.72,0.72,0.7,0.77,0.82,0.92,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.92,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.1%
ORL 90, TOR 93	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.68,0.62,0.58,0.62,0.69,0.68,0.75,0.66,0.58,0.51,0.64,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.62,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.75,0.85,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.88,0.82,0.91,0.96,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.91,1	94.1%