NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	97		Excitement	5.4 [752]		MVP	Chris Paul (HOU): +15.5%
Houston Rockets	104		Comeback	1.1 [1305]		LVP	Dennis Smith Jr. (DAL): -8.5%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Yogi Ferrell	0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.15	0.02	0.12	14	67%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dwight Powell	0.02	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	12	60%	0.07	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.03
Johnathan Motley	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	2	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	0.00
Jalen Jones	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.01	7	53%	0.03	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Maxi Kleber	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.02	-0.03	0.02	7	71%	0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Doug McDermott	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	9	44%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Harrison Barnes	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	15	34%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kyle Collinsworth	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	9	29%	-0.03	1	-0.03	3	0%	-0.06
Dennis Smith Jr.	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.12	-0.03	-0.07	18	44%	0.07	6	-0.16	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Paul	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.12	0.03	0.00	15	69%	0.19	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.06	0.00	19	54%	0.16	3	-0.08	12	92%	0.04
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	-0.01	-0.01	9	67%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clint Capela	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.00	-0.03	10	52%	0.07	0	0.00	11	36%	-0.08
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	87%	0.06	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Markel Brown	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	5	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
PJ Tucker	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	3	50%	-0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.02	-0.02	11	27%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	0.3	29.8	13.8	29.2	2.4	29.3	127.7
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +29.3%

HOU +10.1%

DAL -8.4%

HOU +18.1%

HOU +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	HOU	NBA	DAL	HOU	NBA
this game	14.0	15.3	14.7	99.0	105.1	107.5
season	15.4	14.6		105.3	112.8
opponent	14.8	14.3		105.6	108.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	13.2	13.7	12.9	16.4	14.0
HOU	16.3	14.0	14.8	16.4	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Johnathan Motley	7	7	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.21	7	-14	21	14.6	13.9	0.66	20.1	14.9	5.24
Maxi Kleber	45	46	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.02	-3	-4	1	13.4	14.4	-0.95	13.5	16.8	-3.23
Kyle Collinsworth	62	65	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.28	6	-13	19	13.7	14.4	-0.72	14.8	16.1	-1.29
Jalen Jones	47	50	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.34	7	-14	21	13.7	14.2	-0.41	14.6	15.9	-1.28
Doug McDermott	67	68	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.28	-2	-5	3	14.1	13.6	0.46	15.6	14.5	1.20
Harrison Barnes	64	62	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.05	-14	7	-21	14.0	13.9	0.12	15.0	15.6	-0.60
Dennis Smith Jr.	73	72	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.06	-14	7	-21	13.8	14.6	-0.81	15.1	15.7	-0.64
Yogi Ferrell	68	68	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.26	-8	1	-9	14.5	12.8	1.72	15.6	14.5	1.20
Dwight Powell	57	57	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.11	-14	7	-21	14.2	13.7	0.52	16.7	13.3	3.37

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Paul	72	73	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.10	22	-15	37	14.9	16.2	-1.25	14.3	12.9	1.45
Luc Mbah a Moute	59	58	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.16	7	0	7	16.8	13.0	3.81	14.2	13.7	0.48
Clint Capela	63	60	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.18	5	2	3	16.3	13.4	2.96	14.2	13.6	0.62
Ryan Anderson	48	47	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.16	3	4	-1	14.4	16.1	-1.62	13.9	14.0	-0.09
PJ Tucker	51	51	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.13	4	3	1	16.1	14.4	1.62	14.0	13.9	0.09
James Harden	70	69	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.05	5	2	3	16.2	13.0	3.21	13.9	14.2	-0.35
Nene	36	38	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.11	2	5	-3	13.4	16.3	-2.96	13.6	14.2	-0.62
Gerald Green	42	41	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.31	-6	13	-19	13.4	16.6	-3.24	13.5	14.3	-0.73
Eric Gordon	52	52	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.09	-1	8	-9	14.0	16.7	-2.68	13.8	14.1	-0.32
Markel Brown	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	13	-19	21.5	15.1	6.36	8.0	14.0	-6.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.63,0.63,0.55,0.62,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.68,0.73,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.65,0.72,0.72,0.7,0.77,0.82,0.92,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.92,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 93, LAL 107	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.45,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.73,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.68,0.72,0.76,0.72,0.75,0.85,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.7%
ATL 86, CHI 94	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.84,0.8,0.84,0.87,0.9,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%
GSW 84, DEN 96	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.67,0.67,0.66,0.65,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.77,0.73,0.72,0.69,0.59,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.6,0.57,0.61,0.7,0.76,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.7,0.83,0.84,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%