NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	86		Excitement	4.8 [867]		MVP	Luol Deng (CHI): +8.0%
Chicago Bulls	94		Comeback	1.1 [1251]		LVP	Zaza Pachulia (ATL): -11.5%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marvin Williams	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.06	-0.02	0.03	12	79%	0.13	5	-0.12	4	100%	0.01
Slava Medvedenko	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	1	150%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Salim Stoudamire	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Solomon Jones	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shelden Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Childress	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	5	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Lorenzen Wright	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	22%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Dijon Thompson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.02	27	48%	0.01	3	-0.06	6	83%	0.00
Royal Ivey	-0.07	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	3	37%	-0.01	3	-0.06	2	50%	0.00
Josh Smith	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.01	12	47%	-0.01	3	-0.07	10	40%	-0.06
Zaza Pachulia	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	0.01	7	33%	-0.06	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.01

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	0.02	0.03	10	69%	0.11	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.02
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.01	10	56%	0.07	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.02
Ben Wallace	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	9	55%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	8	57%	0.09	3	-0.08	5	80%	-0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	14	52%	0.05	3	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	5	50%	-0.01	2	-0.02	4	25%	-0.04
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	7	28%	-0.06	1	-0.02	4	0%	-0.01
Ben Gordon	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.05,-0.02,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.11	-0.00	-0.01	13	43%	0.05	5	-0.14	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.3	27.3	14.8	28.2	2.7	35.3	136.9
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +27.6%

CHI +11.0%

CHI +14.2%

ATL -6.5%

CHI +3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	CHI	NBA	ATL	CHI	NBA
this game	15.4	15.5	15.4	91.5	101.1	104.5
season	16.1	14.5		101.1	103.1
opponent	15.9	15.3		98.1	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	16.9	15.2	17.9	12.0	15.4
CHI	15.1	16.1	14.8	15.7	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Slava Medvedenko	2	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-12	16	9.0	15.5	-6.49	14.0	15.5	-1.48
Salim Stoudamire	2	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-12	16	9.0	15.5	-6.49	14.0	15.5	-1.48
Solomon Jones	6	6	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-13	18	14.3	15.4	-1.09	13.2	15.6	-2.44
Shelden Williams	26	25	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.13	4	-12	16	15.2	15.4	-0.27	16.2	15.2	1.02
Lorenzen Wright	36	35	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.02	-2	-6	4	16.5	14.6	1.91	14.2	16.2	-1.96
Dijon Thompson	18	19	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.14	2	-10	12	13.8	15.7	-1.95	17.5	14.9	2.54
Royal Ivey	41	38	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.16	-1	-7	6	15.9	14.9	1.02	14.5	16.1	-1.56
Josh Childress	60	60	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.13	-8	0	-8	15.3	15.4	-0.00	15.9	14.6	1.36
Marvin Williams	83	81	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.14	-8	0	-8	15.2	16.4	-1.15	15.7	13.7	2.05
Zaza Pachulia	52	52	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.10	-11	3	-14	14.7	16.2	-1.56	16.5	14.1	2.47
Josh Smith	61	62	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	0.02	-17	9	-26	16.2	13.8	2.41	14.9	16.6	-1.69
Joe Johnson	83	83	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.14	-12	4	-16	15.3	15.8	-0.53	15.1	18.6	-3.53

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Gordon	57	58	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.07	12	-4	16	14.8	16.5	-1.67	17.0	12.7	4.31
Luol Deng	61	61	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.16	9	-1	10	14.6	17.2	-2.60	16.8	12.7	4.14
Andres Nocioni	54	53	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.27	5	3	2	16.3	14.3	2.01	14.2	16.9	-2.71
Ben Wallace	54	56	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.04	12	-4	16	14.7	16.5	-1.83	17.1	12.8	4.30
Kirk Hinrich	83	84	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.26	2	6	-4	15.5	14.8	0.73	15.0	18.7	-3.75
Thabo Sefolosha	46	46	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.20	2	6	-4	16.1	14.8	1.30	14.0	16.6	-2.65
P.J. Brown	74	76	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.13	2	6	-4	15.6	14.7	0.90	15.0	16.9	-1.90
Tyrus Thomas	36	36	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.20	-4	12	-16	16.5	14.8	1.67	12.7	17.0	-4.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.84,0.8,0.84,0.87,0.9,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 82, CLE 102	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.63,0.59,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.71,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.76,0.77,0.86,0.87,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%
CHA 93, DEN 104	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.72,0.64,0.59,0.58,0.65,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.84,0.83,0.83,0.87,0.9,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.98,0.96,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%
UTA 91, SAS 106	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.67,0.75,0.76,0.71,0.72,0.81,0.85,0.86,0.9,0.96,0.96,0.93,0.96,0.94,0.94,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.7%