NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	84		Excitement	4.1 [614]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DEN): +12.9%
Denver Nuggets	96		Comeback	1.2 [492]		LVP	Jason Caffey (GSW): -7.8%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Muggsy Bogues	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	3	100%	0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	11	65%	0.04	2	-0.04	12	67%	-0.02
Adonal Foyle	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Felton Spencer	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Delk	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.07	0.00	-0.06	4	25%	-0.00	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Mills	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	9	48%	-0.03	0	0.00	7	86%	-0.00
Bimbo Coles	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	8	37%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	10	54%	0.05	3	-0.09	6	100%	0.03
John Starks	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.09	0.01	-0.03	12	41%	-0.01	3	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Donyell Marshall	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	0.01	5	30%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Terry Cummings	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	5	33%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jason Caffey	-0.08	0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	4	40%	0.00	3	-0.08	2	0%	-0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.11	0.03	0.01	11	77%	0.16	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.00
Bryant Stith	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.02	-0.02	9	56%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eric Washington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.02	-0.04	4	75%	0.08	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.01	8	68%	0.06	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.00
Carl Herrera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.07	0.00	-0.07	17	51%	0.03	2	-0.02	15	73%	0.01
Johnny Taylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.11	-0.00	-0.05	13	32%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	1.7	25.2	15.5	25.3	2.4	34.0	126.5
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +34.2%

GSW -0.4%

GSW -6.9%

DEN +22.2%

DEN +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DEN	NBA	GSW	DEN	NBA
this game	15.9	15.8	15.8	92.3	105.5	99.6
season	15.9	15.5		95.1	100.7
opponent	15.6	15.5		107.6	98.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	17.2	12.9	18.0	15.4	15.9
DEN	14.8	19.0	14.8	14.6	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Adonal Foyle	7	6	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-13	14	16.1	15.8	0.30	15.2	15.8	-0.66
Tony Delk	15	15	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.21	7	-19	26	12.6	16.5	-3.91	13.9	16.1	-2.21
Felton Spencer	9	11	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.01	-3	-9	6	11.4	16.4	-4.91	15.0	15.9	-0.89
Chris Mills	53	52	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.22	2	-14	16	15.0	17.1	-2.08	16.3	15.1	1.14
Muggsy Bogues	19	19	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.07	-4	-8	4	15.9	15.8	0.10	18.7	15.0	3.67
John Starks	66	67	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.03	-8	-4	-4	16.0	15.4	0.59	16.5	13.8	2.70
Jason Caffey	37	36	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	0.01	-8	-4	-4	17.7	14.6	3.09	16.1	15.6	0.50
Terry Cummings	29	29	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.04	-7	-5	-2	15.6	16.0	-0.41	16.3	15.5	0.78
Donyell Marshall	33	34	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.13	-5	-7	2	14.5	16.7	-2.17	14.4	16.6	-2.28
Bimbo Coles	57	57	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	0.12	-15	3	-18	16.7	14.5	2.23	15.3	16.6	-1.29
Erick Dampier	73	71	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.23	-6	-6	0	16.2	14.7	1.43	15.9	15.2	0.74
Antawn Jamison	57	58	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.00	-14	2	-16	16.5	14.7	1.81	14.9	17.3	-2.39

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio McDyess	80	82	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.09	19	-7	26	15.6	17.2	-1.59	16.5	10.4	6.02
Bryant Stith	51	53	0.63	-0.13	0.76	-0.01	22	-10	32	14.9	16.9	-1.95	17.7	13.3	4.43
Nick Van Exel	76	75	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.05	19	-7	26	15.1	19.2	-4.09	15.7	16.4	-0.69
Danny Fortson	59	57	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.04	11	1	10	15.7	15.8	-0.10	16.2	15.3	0.87
Eric Washington	42	43	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.19	4	8	-4	16.6	15.0	1.60	15.9	15.8	0.07
Chauncey Billups	70	69	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.19	0	12	-12	16.0	15.0	0.95	15.8	16.2	-0.41
Carl Herrera	43	43	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.17	-6	18	-24	16.2	15.4	0.77	14.3	17.3	-2.97
Eric Williams	6	5	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.01	-1	13	-14	16.5	15.7	0.77	11.6	16.1	-4.52
Johnny Taylor	28	28	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.14	-8	20	-28	17.2	15.2	2.02	13.6	16.9	-3.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.67,0.67,0.66,0.65,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.77,0.73,0.72,0.69,0.59,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.6,0.57,0.61,0.7,0.76,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.7,0.83,0.84,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 97, HOU 104	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.63,0.63,0.55,0.62,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.68,0.73,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.65,0.72,0.72,0.7,0.77,0.82,0.92,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.92,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%
SEA 86, WAS 108	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.77,0.74,0.72,0.77,0.77,0.72,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.54,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.74,0.71,0.69,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.85,0.9,0.96,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%
NYK 87, MIL 104	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.69,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.69,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.72,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.68,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.8,0.82,0.92,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%