NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	77		Excitement	5.1 [768]		MVP	Jamaal Tinsley (IND): +15.4%
Indiana Pacers	89		Comeback	1.0 [1127]		LVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): -20.6%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Walter McCarty	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.09	0.04	-0.02	12	64%	0.14	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
J.R. Bremer	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	15	59%	0.11	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.00
Tony Battie	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	9	44%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Long	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tony Delk	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	9	46%	-0.05	1	-0.03	8	75%	0.01
Eric Williams	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.13	-0.05	-0.03	10	18%	-0.15	1	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Paul Pierce	-0.21	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.21,-0.21	-0.16	-0.05	-0.01	18	34%	-0.14	3	-0.07	5	60%	-0.02

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamaal Tinsley	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.03	-0.01	7	94%	0.17	1	-0.01	2	50%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.01	16	61%	0.13	2	-0.07	6	83%	0.02
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	8	62%	0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Erick Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jeff Foster	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ron Mercer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.08	0.02	-0.03	9	30%	-0.03	1	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Metta World Peace	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.16	0.00	-0.08	16	36%	0.02	4	-0.10	4	50%	-0.03
Reggie Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.06	-0.05	0.02	13	51%	-0.05	3	-0.09	9	100%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.8	29.4	17.4	26.4	2.7	27.3	128.2
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +28.5%

IND +15.1%

IND +5.3%

BOS -5.4%

IND +6.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	IND	NBA	BOS	IND	NBA
this game	15.7	16.3	15.5	85.6	98.9	101.6
season	15.6	15.4		99.3	102.2
opponent	15.5	15.5		99.2	99.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	15.3	14.4	18.1	15.2	15.7
IND	14.7	16.3	14.6	19.8	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Blount	20	21	0.16	-0.66	0.82	-0.19	12	-24	36	13.1	16.5	-3.37	15.9	16.4	-0.49
J.R. Bremer	20	21	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.18	7	-19	26	15.4	15.8	-0.35	16.5	16.2	0.32
Walter McCarty	49	48	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.25	8	-20	28	14.7	16.9	-2.21	17.4	15.0	2.35
Grant Long	1	2	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.01	-2	-10	8	25.0	15.6	9.38	16.5	16.3	0.23
Antoine Walker	88	88	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.16	-10	-2	-8	15.8	13.0	2.78	16.3	16.5	-0.23
Paul Pierce	90	90	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.15	-12	0	-12	15.7	0.0	15.72	16.3	0.0	16.28
Tony Delk	70	69	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	0.03	-19	7	-26	15.8	15.4	0.35	16.2	16.5	-0.32
Tony Battie	52	52	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	0.02	-20	8	-28	16.9	14.1	2.75	15.5	17.4	-1.93
Eric Williams	60	59	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	0.14	-24	12	-36	16.2	14.8	1.33	16.2	16.4	-0.12

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jermaine O'Neal	83	83	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.08	18	-6	24	16.0	19.1	-3.11	15.7	16.1	-0.46
Jamaal Tinsley	74	74	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.07	18	-6	24	15.9	18.2	-2.40	15.8	15.6	0.19
Metta World Peace	89	89	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.15	12	0	12	16.3	16.0	0.28	15.7	15.0	0.73
Reggie Miller	70	70	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.01	12	0	12	15.7	18.3	-2.60	15.8	15.5	0.22
Brad Miller	56	57	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.03	9	3	6	15.0	18.4	-3.43	15.7	15.8	-0.10
Austin Croshere	38	37	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.17	1	11	-10	19.0	14.3	4.76	15.4	16.0	-0.58
Al Harrington	15	15	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.13	0	12	-12	17.5	16.0	1.51	16.2	15.6	0.57
Ron Mercer	10	9	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.04	-2	14	-16	19.5	15.9	3.62	16.3	15.7	0.68
Erick Strickland	12	13	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.07	-4	16	-20	18.0	16.0	1.99	14.2	16.0	-1.74
Jeff Foster	3	3	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.01	-4	16	-20	12.3	16.4	-4.08	21.7	15.5	6.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.71,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.73,0.66,0.74,0.82,0.7,0.66,0.79,0.79,0.88,0.92,0.97,0.95,0.97,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 76, TOR 89	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.63,0.65,0.71,0.74,0.76,0.78,0.76,0.75,0.74,0.73,0.69,0.71,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.64,0.7,0.63,0.66,0.74,0.69,0.7,0.7,0.65,0.62,0.76,0.7,0.67,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.82,0.86,0.93,0.86,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	94.8%
IND 115, DEN 135	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.63,0.75,0.74,0.79,0.81,0.81,0.78,0.74,0.74,0.66,0.73,0.73,0.72,0.7,0.75,0.73,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.58,0.55,0.63,0.64,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.83,0.72,0.7,0.66,0.82,0.93,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.1%
ATL 81, BOS 89	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.75,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.75,0.75,0.68,0.68,0.67,0.69,0.74,0.71,0.59,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.78,0.77,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.7,0.68,0.74,0.69,0.63,0.74,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.82,0.83,0.72,0.83,0.85,0.93,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1	93.8%