NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	115		Excitement	5.7 [685]		MVP	Danny Granger (IND): +15.5%
Denver Nuggets	135		Comeback	1.1 [1168]		LVP	Rasho Nesterovic (IND): -9.9%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danny Granger	0.15	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.18	0.00	0.03	22	65%	0.16	1	-0.01	11	91%	0.05
Troy Murphy	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	-0.01	-0.01	10	62%	0.09	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Jarrett Jack	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	-0.01	-0.02	16	53%	0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Graham	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	12	53%	0.09	2	-0.07	6	67%	-0.02
Brandon Rush	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.08	0.00	0.08	2	150%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh McRoberts	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roy Hibbert	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.00	0.03	9	45%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Travis Diener	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Foster	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	8	45%	0.02	3	-0.09	4	75%	-0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.02	7	14%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nene	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.14	0.03	0.01	8	86%	0.19	2	-0.03	5	80%	-0.00
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.18	0.02	0.06	13	76%	0.17	1	-0.03	7	86%	0.02
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.02	0.02	12	66%	0.10	1	-0.01	8	62%	-0.04
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.03	0.02	15	63%	0.18	3	-0.11	8	100%	0.03
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.06	11	45%	0.06	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.04	10	48%	0.08	2	-0.07	3	0%	-0.04
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.06	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	2	75%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Renaldo Balkman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	1	150%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.01	7	57%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	5	50%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	2.4	32.4	15.4	31.3	1.6	26.4	136.8
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +47.1%

DEN +5.2%

DEN +9.2%

IND -13.4%

DEN +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	DEN	NBA	IND	DEN	NBA
this game	13.4	14.0	15.5	109.5	128.6	106.4
season	14.1	14.4		106.5	109.5
opponent	15.7	15.3		105.2	107.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	13.7	12.3	13.5	14.2	13.4
DEN	12.0	13.4	15.3	15.8	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Travis Diener	38	36	0.09	-0.59	0.67	0.03	2	-22	24	12.5	13.9	-1.37	14.5	13.8	0.68
Josh McRoberts	8	9	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-20	20	11.5	13.6	-2.06	19.9	13.5	6.41
Brandon Rush	12	13	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-18	16	11.2	13.7	-2.52	18.5	13.4	5.06
Roy Hibbert	37	39	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.07	0	-20	20	12.9	13.7	-0.74	15.2	13.3	1.91
Jeff Foster	54	53	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.09	-6	-14	8	12.9	14.0	-1.09	13.2	14.9	-1.73
Marquis Daniels	27	28	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.06	-9	-11	2	13.9	13.2	0.61	12.2	14.7	-2.43
Troy Murphy	69	69	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.01	-12	-8	-4	13.7	12.8	0.90	13.8	14.4	-0.63
Danny Granger	91	91	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	0.14	-18	-2	-16	13.5	13.0	0.46	13.7	16.1	-2.44
Rasho Nesterovic	36	34	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.02	-15	-5	-10	14.6	12.8	1.76	12.8	14.6	-1.87
Stephen Graham	63	63	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.07	-19	-1	-18	13.8	12.9	0.90	14.5	13.3	1.16
Jarrett Jack	90	90	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	0.08	-21	1	-22	13.6	12.2	1.40	13.8	15.3	-1.52

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nene	56	58	0.71	-0.21	0.91	-0.09	27	-7	34	12.1	16.2	-4.16	14.3	12.3	1.92
Carmelo Anthony	53	54	0.56	-0.06	0.62	-0.38	32	-12	44	12.5	15.6	-3.03	14.3	12.5	1.81
Chauncey Billups	81	82	0.49	0.01	0.49	-0.12	21	-1	22	13.6	15.5	-1.96	13.6	12.7	0.85
Dahntay Jones	57	56	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.07	13	7	6	14.0	14.0	0.01	13.4	13.4	-0.09
J.R. Smith	58	59	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.01	8	12	-4	14.6	13.3	1.36	13.6	13.1	0.52
Kenyon Martin	77	76	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.15	10	10	0	14.1	13.7	0.43	13.3	13.6	-0.26
Anthony Carter	51	51	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.04	5	15	-10	15.2	12.9	2.23	13.1	13.6	-0.51
Chucky Atkins	5	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	21	-22	14.6	14.0	0.60	8.2	13.6	-5.35
Renaldo Balkman	5	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	21	-22	14.6	14.0	0.60	8.2	13.6	-5.35
Chris Andersen	31	31	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.17	-6	26	-32	15.3	13.5	1.84	13.0	13.6	-0.57
Linas Kleiza	51	50	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.17	-8	28	-36	15.5	12.6	2.88	12.4	14.3	-1.95

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.63,0.75,0.74,0.79,0.81,0.81,0.78,0.74,0.74,0.66,0.73,0.73,0.72,0.7,0.75,0.73,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.58,0.55,0.63,0.64,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.83,0.72,0.7,0.66,0.82,0.93,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 77, IND 89	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.71,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.73,0.66,0.74,0.82,0.7,0.66,0.79,0.79,0.88,0.92,0.97,0.95,0.97,1,1,1,1	94.1%
HOU 109, CHA 125	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.54,0.63,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.76,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.83,0.79,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.7,0.64,0.63,0.69,0.63,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.64,0.75,0.73,0.8,0.72,0.62,0.74,0.88,0.92,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.9%
DEN 87, GSW 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.72,0.72,0.75,0.77,0.8,0.76,0.72,0.68,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.78,0.8,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.7,0.63,0.65,0.6,0.58,0.7,0.79,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.77,0.71,0.62,0.7,0.71,0.86,0.94,0.98,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,1,1,1	93.6%