NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	76		Excitement	5.1 [799]		MVP	Vince Carter (TOR): +21.9%
Toronto Raptors	89		Comeback	1.1 [1118]		LVP	Antonio Davis (TOR): -11.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ryan Bowen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	-0.01	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	16	49%	0.02	1	-0.03	7	86%	0.00
Marcus Camby	-0.02	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	1	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Francisco Elson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	9	44%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nene	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	9	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Andre Miller	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07	-0.12	0.00	-0.05	14	51%	0.08	6	-0.15	7	86%	0.01
Chris Andersen	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Boykins	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	0.02	14	40%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jon Barry	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.02	8	28%	-0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.15	0.07	0.01	22	69%	0.25	2	-0.04	5	80%	0.02
Milt Palacio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.04	-0.02	10	64%	0.11	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	4	75%	0.06	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mengke Bateer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.01	0.02	4	75%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Moiso	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rick Brunson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	-0.02	5	67%	0.05	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Lamond Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	12	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	5	20%	-0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Alvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	4	50%	0.01	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Davis	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	9	32%	-0.08	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.8	2.5	28.3	16.6	23.9	1.8	28.2	123.1
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +50.8%

DEN -9.3%

TOR +2.3%

TOR +2.1%

TOR +4.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	TOR	NBA	DEN	TOR	NBA
this game	16.2	18.5	15.7	93.8	104.7	100.5
season	14.9	16.8		101.6	94.8
opponent	15.7	15.4		98.4	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	18.6	14.3	13.2	18.8	16.2
TOR	16.5	19.0	19.2	19.1	18.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Bowen	19	17	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.19	6	-19	25	16.5	16.1	0.46	20.1	18.1	1.99
Chris Andersen	26	25	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.11	0	-13	13	17.7	15.5	2.18	18.1	18.6	-0.55
Earl Boykins	48	49	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.22	2	-15	17	16.7	15.5	1.21	18.1	19.0	-0.87
Marcus Camby	22	25	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.07	-10	-3	-7	15.8	16.3	-0.55	19.8	17.9	1.83
Francisco Elson	48	47	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.18	-4	-9	5	16.0	16.5	-0.53	18.2	18.8	-0.67
Andre Miller	67	71	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.11	-7	-6	-1	15.4	19.8	-4.37	19.1	15.5	3.56
Nene	56	62	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.04	-15	2	-17	15.7	17.3	-1.66	18.8	17.6	1.24
Jon Barry	48	53	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	0.12	-20	7	-27	16.7	15.4	1.26	17.7	19.7	-2.00
Carmelo Anthony	71	76	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.01	-17	4	-21	16.2	15.7	0.54	17.9	22.9	-4.94

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vince Carter	67	65	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.02	22	-9	31	18.4	18.7	-0.25	16.8	13.8	2.94
Milt Palacio	60	57	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.05	16	-3	19	17.0	21.9	-4.83	16.8	14.6	2.26
Jerome Williams	67	63	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.06	15	-2	17	19.0	16.3	2.71	16.6	14.6	2.08
Antonio Davis	53	50	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.05	15	-2	17	17.5	20.0	-2.45	15.1	17.9	-2.75
Chris Bosh	45	46	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.25	1	12	-11	19.0	17.9	1.13	16.7	15.4	1.31
Michael Curry	44	40	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.07	10	3	7	18.0	19.0	-0.93	16.0	16.3	-0.34
Lamond Murray	32	33	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.24	-4	17	-21	18.7	18.3	0.40	15.5	16.6	-1.06
Jerome Moiso	1	0	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	13	-13	18.0	18.5	-0.48	0.0	16.2	-16.17
Rick Brunson	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	14	-15	18.0	18.5	-0.48	14.0	16.2	-2.20
Alvin Williams	26	25	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.04	-3	16	-19	21.5	17.1	4.36	15.0	16.7	-1.70
Mengke Bateer	2	1	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.01	-2	15	-17	9.0	18.7	-9.70	23.0	16.1	6.91
Morris Peterson	27	24	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.04	-4	17	-21	19.5	18.0	1.54	15.1	16.6	-1.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.63,0.65,0.71,0.74,0.76,0.78,0.76,0.75,0.74,0.73,0.69,0.71,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.64,0.7,0.63,0.66,0.74,0.69,0.7,0.7,0.65,0.62,0.76,0.7,0.67,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.82,0.86,0.93,0.86,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 108, PHX 123	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.67,0.69,0.73,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.61,0.66,0.65,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.64,0.65,0.78,0.86,0.8,0.71,0.79,0.85,0.81,0.88,0.87,0.9,0.92,0.91,0.94,0.97,1,1,1,1	95.4%
BOS 77, IND 89	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.71,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.73,0.66,0.74,0.82,0.7,0.66,0.79,0.79,0.88,0.92,0.97,0.95,0.97,1,1,1,1	94.8%
NJN 97, MIA 105	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.65,0.61,0.71,0.78,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.61,0.68,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.82,0.87,0.9,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,1,0.98,0.98,1,0.99,1	94.6%