NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Jersey Nets	97		Excitement	4.8 [816]		MVP	Voshon Lenard (MIA): +17.2%
Miami Heat	105		Comeback	1.0 [943]		LVP	Sam Cassell (NJN): -16.9%

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Gatling	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.10	-0.01	0.03	7	86%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Benoit	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.01	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Van Horn	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0	-0.01	0.02	0.01	14	50%	0.01	1	-0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Michael Cage	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendall Gill	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.02	15	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Sherman Douglas	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	5	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Kevin Edwards	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kerry Kittles	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	12	46%	0.00	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Jayson Williams	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	0.03	8	44%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Sam Cassell	-0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.14	-0.04	-0.02	16	47%	-0.02	6	-0.15	8	75%	-0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.14	0.04	0.00	8	94%	0.21	1	-0.03	2	50%	0.00
Terry Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.04	-0.01	5	73%	0.10	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	-0.01	-0.02	23	50%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Eric Murdock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	0.01	0.04	8	67%	0.03	0	0.00	8	100%	0.01
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.01	6	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	4	40%	-0.02	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ike Austin	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	14	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.18	-0.04	-0.06	13	41%	-0.05	6	-0.12	6	83%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	2.3	23.4	15.4	22.8	1.8	41.6	135.6
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +33.2%

MIA +7.0%

MIA +8.8%

NJN -2.0%

MIA +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NJN	MIA	NBA	NJN	MIA	NBA
this game	15.5	16.3	15.6	107.8	115.4	102.5
season	15.6	15.8		104.9	104.7
opponent	16.2	15.2		99.8	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NJN	18.3	15.4	16.7	12.1	15.5
MIA	15.2	17.3	15.3	17.2	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Gatling	38	37	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.16	2	-10	12	15.5	15.6	-0.06	16.8	16.0	0.79
David Benoit	17	20	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.11	-9	1	-10	20.1	14.5	5.58	16.2	16.3	-0.05
Michael Cage	8	7	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.07	-4	-4	0	17.0	15.4	1.61	16.3	16.3	-0.00
Kerry Kittles	63	65	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.01	-7	-1	-6	16.0	14.4	1.66	15.4	18.4	-2.99
Sherman Douglas	30	30	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.39	6	-14	20	13.8	16.4	-2.55	19.3	14.8	4.50
Kevin Edwards	19	18	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.03	-7	-1	-6	15.3	15.6	-0.28	16.8	16.2	0.61
Keith Van Horn	72	73	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.23	-1	-7	6	15.4	16.2	-0.79	16.4	16.0	0.36
Sam Cassell	69	71	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-8	0	-8	15.7	15.1	0.57	15.3	19.8	-4.57
Kendall Gill	73	71	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.38	1	-9	10	14.5	20.1	-5.58	16.3	16.2	0.05
Jayson Williams	61	63	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.07	-13	5	-18	15.8	15.0	0.79	16.4	16.1	0.26

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Mashburn	78	77	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.07	17	-9	26	15.6	20.5	-4.87	16.3	10.8	5.57
Ike Austin	74	71	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.16	12	-4	16	16.3	16.4	-0.16	15.2	16.6	-1.39
Tim Hardaway	80	79	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.18	11	-3	14	16.5	14.8	1.67	15.4	16.4	-0.95
Voshon Lenard	59	57	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.01	14	-6	20	14.6	19.5	-4.91	16.4	14.0	2.37
P.J. Brown	46	48	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.04	14	-6	20	16.3	16.3	-0.05	17.3	13.5	3.86
Terry Mills	46	45	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.31	-4	12	-16	17.8	14.8	2.98	15.2	15.8	-0.58
Eric Murdock	39	40	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.23	-2	10	-12	16.8	15.9	0.98	14.4	16.4	-2.04
Mark Strickland	7	7	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.12	-6	14	-20	16.3	16.3	-0.00	9.7	16.0	-6.31
Dan Majerle	26	26	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.28	-16	24	-40	18.3	15.5	2.88	12.9	16.6	-3.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.65,0.61,0.71,0.78,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.61,0.68,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.82,0.87,0.9,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,1,0.98,0.98,1,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 81, IND 89	0.5,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.62,0.66,0.69,0.72,0.74,0.74,0.76,0.76,0.76,0.75,0.68,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.59,0.73,0.74,0.69,0.7,0.73,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.68,0.72,0.83,0.78,0.82,0.85,0.93,0.93,0.91,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.99,1,1,1	95.0%
DEN 76, TOR 89	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.63,0.65,0.71,0.74,0.76,0.78,0.76,0.75,0.74,0.73,0.69,0.71,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.64,0.7,0.63,0.66,0.74,0.69,0.7,0.7,0.65,0.62,0.76,0.7,0.67,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.82,0.86,0.93,0.86,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	94.6%
ATL 71, DET 88	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.64,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.73,0.79,0.77,0.79,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.73,0.69,0.68,0.61,0.71,0.64,0.56,0.63,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.68,0.65,0.77,0.8,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.91,0.92,0.91,0.92,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%