NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	80		Excitement	8.2 [221]		MVP	Steven Smith (SAS): +10.8%
Los Angeles Lakers	86		Comeback	2.8 [498]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -19.1%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steven Smith	0.11	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.13,0.13,0.11	0.06	0.03	-0.02	11	59%	0.11	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03
Mark Bryant	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Terry Porter	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	5	42%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Tony Parker	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.03	0.00	12	46%	0.03	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Danny Ferry	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	4	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12	-0.04	-0.07	0.01	8	41%	-0.10	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Malik Rose	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.19,-0.19	-0.18	-0.02	-0.01	14	31%	-0.07	4	-0.11	4	50%	-0.04
Tim Duncan	-0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.1,-0.09,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.25,-0.19,-0.19	-0.16	-0.08	-0.05	30	37%	-0.12	1	-0.08	10	80%	0.01

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.05	-0.00	7	57%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.01	0.00	6	86%	0.11	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Devean George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.03	0.00	6	57%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Mark Madsen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Slava Medvedenko	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.18,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.10	0.09	-0.00	22	45%	0.08	3	-0.08	7	71%	0.00
Brian Shaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.06	-0.00	5	42%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.00	-0.00	13	29%	-0.08	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Rick Fox	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	5	20%	-0.03	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.16	-0.16	-0.13	-0.06	-0.03	18	43%	-0.10	3	-0.06	10	40%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	297.0	2.5	28.8	18.8	28.4	2.5	34.4	412.2
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +22.7%

LAL +2.3%

LAL +25.6%

LAL +1.6%

SAS -2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	LAL	NBA	SAS	LAL	NBA
this game	16.2	15.1	15.6	87.0	93.5	102.3
season	15.8	15.3		104.3	106.9
opponent	15.4	15.7		99.8	98.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.1	17.0	16.3	16.4	16.2
LAL	14.9	15.0	16.4	14.3	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Bryant	24	26	0.14	-0.64	0.77	-0.07	7	-13	20	15.8	16.3	-0.48	15.5	15.0	0.58
Tony Parker	64	63	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.33	8	-14	22	16.6	15.2	1.34	16.1	12.9	3.25
Antonio Daniels	33	34	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.05	-5	-1	-4	14.7	17.0	-2.37	14.9	15.3	-0.42
Tim Duncan	87	87	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.21	0	-6	6	16.3	14.0	2.31	15.2	13.6	1.61
Bruce Bowen	71	71	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.24	0	-6	6	16.5	15.0	1.60	15.8	13.0	2.81
Danny Ferry	23	24	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.01	-11	5	-16	15.5	16.4	-0.94	12.2	16.2	-4.00
Terry Porter	28	29	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.01	-14	8	-22	15.2	16.6	-1.34	12.9	16.1	-3.25
Steven Smith	66	64	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.45	-2	-4	2	16.8	14.7	2.03	15.5	14.3	1.15
Malik Rose	64	62	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	-0.28	-13	7	-20	16.2	16.2	0.01	15.0	15.3	-0.32

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shaquille O'Neal	67	67	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.39	5	1	4	15.3	14.7	0.60	16.3	15.8	0.58
Rick Fox	71	70	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.34	6	0	6	15.3	14.4	0.90	16.4	15.5	0.96
Derek Fisher	72	72	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.43	0	6	-6	15.2	14.8	0.41	16.8	13.9	2.92
Kobe Bryant	74	75	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.27	1	5	-4	15.1	15.4	-0.33	16.5	14.7	1.81
Robert Horry	52	52	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.24	2	4	-2	14.8	15.5	-0.63	15.8	16.7	-0.96
Devean George	37	37	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.01	5	1	4	14.1	15.8	-1.69	15.1	16.9	-1.76
Brian Shaw	33	32	0.14	0.36	-0.23	-0.01	5	1	4	15.3	15.0	0.24	14.2	17.2	-3.01
Samaki Walker	47	48	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.05	6	0	6	15.2	15.0	0.23	17.2	15.1	2.05
Mark Madsen	6	5	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.02	4	2	2	13.7	15.2	-1.55	15.0	16.3	-1.25
Lindsey Hunter	0	1	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	6	-6	0.0	15.1	-15.12	5.0	16.3	-11.31
Slava Medvedenko	1	1	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.01	-4	10	-14	38.0	14.9	23.13	12.0	16.2	-4.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.38,0.38,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.43,0.34,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.31,0.3,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.51,0.57,0.46,0.46,0.69,0.63,0.85,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 94, PHI 102	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.43,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.41,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.35,0.41,0.27,0.37,0.25,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.47,0.63,0.53,0.54,0.67,0.74,0.79,0.84,0.98,1	92.6%
CHI 96, MIA 105	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.38,0.35,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.62,0.48,0.42,0.22,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.25,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.35,0.39,0.69,0.79,0.93,0.99,1	92.5%
CHH 82, PHX 85	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.35,0.34,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.5,0.43,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.45,0.37,0.52,0.4,0.38,0.23,0.33,0.29,0.42,0.41,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.45,0.85,0.96,1	92.5%