NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	96		Excitement	8.0 [236]		MVP	Udonis Haslem (MIA): +11.6%
Miami Heat	105		Comeback	4.2 [517]		LVP	Jannero Pargo (CHI): -19.2%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio Davis	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.02	-0.04	12	54%	0.13	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Ronald Dupree	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.03	0.01	6	69%	0.10	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.01
Jamal Crawford	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.09	0.07	-0.01	7	42%	0.10	3	-0.10	5	100%	0.13
Kendall Gill	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eddy Curry	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.02	-0.05	-0.00	10	64%	0.03	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.01
Marcus Fizer	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.10	-0.02	-0.06	14	27%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kirk Hinrich	-0.09	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.03	-0.07	-0.01	16	53%	0.02	3	-0.11	6	100%	0.04
Linton Johnson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.04	0.02	4	45%	-0.05	1	-0.04	3	33%	-0.02
Jannero Pargo	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19	-0.09	-0.12	-0.01	8	52%	-0.07	4	-0.12	7	86%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Udonis Haslem	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.00	0.11	-0.01	8	63%	0.16	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.03
Caron Butler	0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.01,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.03	0.01	19	61%	0.13	1	-0.04	11	82%	-0.03
Samaki Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	2	100%	0.11	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.02	16	49%	0.04	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03
Brian Grant	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	9	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	8	50%	0.04	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.03,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.04	-0.09	0.00	15	50%	-0.10	1	-0.02	12	75%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	2.5	30.2	15.8	27.0	2.5	37.6	140.2
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +34.6%

CHI -8.4%

CHI -12.9%

MIA +33.7%

MIA +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIA	NBA	CHI	MIA	NBA
this game	14.9	15.4	15.7	102.1	109.4	100.5
season	15.2	16.2		94.6	99.3
opponent	15.9	15.4		98.8	101.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	16.7	12.8	15.7	14.7	14.9
MIA	13.4	18.0	17.0	13.6	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Linton Johnson	37	37	0.13	-0.63	0.76	0.07	2	-11	13	15.6	14.5	1.15	15.6	15.3	0.34
Kendall Gill	14	14	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.02	2	-11	13	12.1	15.4	-3.27	17.9	15.0	2.98
Jamal Crawford	56	57	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.07	-4	-5	1	15.7	13.8	1.95	16.0	14.5	1.47
Marcus Fizer	43	46	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.06	-6	-3	-3	13.7	15.9	-2.18	14.3	16.4	-2.16
Eddy Curry	78	77	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.17	-6	-3	-3	14.9	15.2	-0.39	16.3	11.7	4.55
Antonio Davis	67	68	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.30	-4	-5	1	15.8	12.9	2.91	15.3	15.5	-0.16
Kirk Hinrich	66	70	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.25	-7	-2	-5	15.7	13.1	2.59	15.1	16.1	-1.00
Jannero Pargo	51	50	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.27	-9	0	-9	13.9	16.1	-2.24	14.7	16.2	-1.47
Ronald Dupree	58	61	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.25	-13	4	-17	14.4	15.7	-1.34	14.8	16.5	-1.69

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	80	78	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.29	18	-9	27	14.6	19.4	-4.86	15.6	11.5	4.13
Caron Butler	81	78	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.22	10	-1	11	14.9	17.9	-2.94	15.4	12.5	2.92
Udonis Haslem	68	66	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.22	9	0	9	14.5	17.5	-2.93	14.8	15.1	-0.31
Brian Grant	72	71	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.27	6	3	3	15.4	15.4	0.01	15.2	14.1	1.05
Rafer Alston	47	48	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.28	-6	15	-21	16.8	14.0	2.75	13.8	16.1	-2.27
Samaki Walker	39	39	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.08	5	4	1	17.1	14.2	2.81	14.9	14.9	-0.05
Rasual Butler	11	11	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.01	1	8	-7	18.0	15.0	2.95	11.8	15.3	-3.52
Eddie Jones	69	67	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.10	4	5	-1	15.5	15.1	0.38	14.8	15.1	-0.31
Malik Allen	13	12	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.05	-2	11	-13	14.8	15.5	-0.62	14.0	15.1	-1.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.38,0.35,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.62,0.48,0.42,0.22,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.25,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.35,0.39,0.69,0.79,0.93,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 80, LAL 86	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.38,0.38,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.43,0.34,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.31,0.3,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.51,0.57,0.46,0.46,0.69,0.63,0.85,0.84,1	92.5%
SAS 84, NJN 90	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.46,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.32,0.25,0.34,0.25,0.28,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.28,0.31,0.26,0.29,0.34,0.43,0.47,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.24,0.28,0.62,0.79,0.94,0.99,1	91.8%
ORL 103, DEN 113	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.28,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.46,0.38,0.34,0.42,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.58,0.41,0.54,0.46,0.61,0.85,0.85,0.98,1	91.3%