NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	103		Excitement	7.9 [247]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): +26.7%
Denver Nuggets	113		Comeback	2.8 [638]		LVP	Hedo Turkoglu (ORL): -30.3%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0.20	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.2,0.2	0.11	0.09	-0.00	15	66%	0.23	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.03
Keith Bogans	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14	0.07	0.06	-0.00	7	78%	0.20	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.01
Maurice Evans	0.14	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.11	0.03	0.01	9	75%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Keyon Dooling	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.01	5	77%	0.10	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Dwight Howard	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	14	56%	0.11	4	-0.10	8	50%	-0.04
Adonal Foyle	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.06	-0.01	13	42%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.16,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.3	-0.17	-0.14	-0.01	15	25%	-0.19	3	-0.12	2	100%	0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.22,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.19,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.18	0.12	0.03	20	64%	0.29	1	-0.02	10	80%	-0.04
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.24,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.13	0.08	-0.01	13	67%	0.21	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.08	0.03	16	60%	0.19	3	-0.09	3	67%	-0.01
Allen Iverson	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.02	-0.02	15	49%	0.10	2	-0.10	13	62%	-0.01
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	9	44%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	11	50%	0.02	2	-0.09	4	75%	-0.00
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	0.00	5	0%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.6	29.7	16.5	26.6	2.3	34.5	135.7
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +8.6%

DEN +9.4%

DEN +25.3%

DEN +6.8%

ORL -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	DEN	NBA	ORL	DEN	NBA
this game	14.5	14.0	15.4	102.0	111.9	105.7
season	15.1	13.3		109.9	108.2
opponent	15.2	15.6		105.4	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	13.3	14.4	16.8	13.8	14.5
DEN	13.4	13.3	13.2	16.2	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keyon Dooling	35	37	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.12	8	-18	26	14.9	14.3	0.65	14.8	13.5	1.32
Maurice Evans	59	58	0.08	-0.58	0.66	0.08	0	-10	10	15.6	13.0	2.51	12.7	15.7	-3.04
Adonal Foyle	19	19	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.04	-1	-9	8	16.0	14.2	1.83	15.5	13.7	1.82
Carlos Arroyo	19	19	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.07	-4	-6	2	14.5	14.5	-0.05	16.8	13.3	3.50
Dwight Howard	82	82	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.17	-9	-1	-8	14.2	16.0	-1.83	13.7	15.5	-1.82
Jameer Nelson	71	71	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.11	-13	3	-16	14.5	14.7	-0.22	12.8	16.8	-3.98
Rashard Lewis	88	89	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.21	-10	0	-10	14.3	15.9	-1.62	14.6	9.8	4.73
Hedo Turkoglu	79	78	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.12	-13	3	-16	14.1	16.0	-1.96	14.2	13.4	0.73
Keith Bogans	53	52	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.28	-8	-2	-6	14.2	14.9	-0.77	14.2	13.8	0.44

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Camby	81	79	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.23	13	-3	16	13.6	15.6	-2.06	14.1	16.0	-1.96
Anthony Carter	76	77	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.11	17	-7	24	13.1	16.6	-3.46	14.8	13.6	1.17
Carmelo Anthony	85	84	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.12	14	-4	18	13.6	16.2	-2.60	14.2	16.0	-1.79
Allen Iverson	90	89	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.29	2	8	-6	14.6	8.7	5.92	14.4	15.1	-0.65
Kenyon Martin	79	81	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.04	8	2	6	13.7	15.0	-1.28	14.7	13.7	0.95
Linas Kleiza	45	44	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.09	5	5	0	14.6	13.6	1.00	14.4	14.6	-0.27
Eduardo Najera	40	41	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.10	-1	11	-12	15.6	13.0	2.61	15.2	14.0	1.23
J.R. Smith	9	10	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.04	-8	18	-26	15.0	13.9	1.10	15.1	14.5	0.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.28,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.46,0.38,0.34,0.42,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.58,0.41,0.54,0.46,0.61,0.85,0.85,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 85, PHX 93	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.35,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.41,0.48,0.46,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.54,0.66,0.52,0.57,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.53,0.79,0.9,0.99,1	93.1%
TOR 91, DAL 93	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.36,0.44,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.56,0.52,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.43,0.58,0.41,0.53,0.61,0.75,0.95,0.9,0.91,1	91.6%
GSW 85, UTA 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.32,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.57,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.64,0.65,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.85,0.95,1	91.4%