NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	82		Excitement	8.0 [211]		MVP	Derrick Coleman (CHH): +8.2%
Phoenix Suns	85		Comeback	3.5 [435]		LVP	Baron Davis (CHH): -37.6%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Coleman	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.04	-0.01	9	63%	0.12	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Eddie Robinson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hersey Hawkins	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Wesley	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07	-0.10	0.02	-0.01	13	37%	-0.02	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.04
P.J. Brown	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.05	-0.10	-0.00	6	50%	-0.05	2	-0.10	4	50%	-0.01
Elden Campbell	-0.19	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.1,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.08	-0.11	-0.00	11	42%	-0.09	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Mashburn	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,0,0.03,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2	-0.06	-0.11	0.02	23	48%	-0.14	2	-0.06	10	50%	-0.06
Baron Davis	-0.38	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.22,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.38	-0.13	-0.24	0.00	11	38%	-0.21	4	-0.17	4	50%	-0.05

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rodney Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.08,0.13,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.02	-0.01	7	80%	0.19	2	-0.14	6	83%	0.02
Mario Elie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jake Tsakalidis	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tom Gugliotta	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.03	-0.00	13	38%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tony Delk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	13	53%	0.01	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	-0.00	5	0%	-0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Clifford Robinson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.13,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.13	-0.05	-0.00	18	35%	-0.16	1	-0.02	7	71%	-0.02
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.09	-0.08	0.01	15	39%	-0.14	1	-0.04	6	67%	-0.02
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.32,-0.22,-0.18,-0.19	-0.19	-0.17	-0.03	-0.01	12	38%	-0.05	5	-0.14	5	60%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	1.8	25.8	14.8	26.2	2.7	36.2	130.6
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +10.6%

PHX +6.3%

PHX +31.0%

PHX +3.2%

CHH -1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHH	PHX	NBA	CHH	PHX	NBA
this game	15.3	14.2	15.5	82.8	88.5	100.9
season	15.8	14.9		99.7	97.7
opponent	15.4	15.6		96.2	97.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHH	12.8	15.5	16.7	16.0	15.3
PHX	16.6	14.5	14.0	12.0	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick Coleman	41	41	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.02	0	-3	3	16.1	14.7	1.45	14.9	13.7	1.18
Hersey Hawkins	15	14	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.02	-3	0	-3	14.7	15.4	-0.64	14.1	14.3	-0.21
David Wesley	84	82	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.14	-4	1	-5	14.8	18.0	-3.21	13.8	16.7	-2.89
Eddie Robinson	44	43	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.27	0	-3	3	17.1	13.8	3.35	13.7	14.7	-1.00
Baron Davis	92	90	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.43	4	-7	11	15.3	15.1	0.14	14.7	8.2	6.49
Jamal Mashburn	88	86	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.33	0	-3	3	15.0	17.4	-2.35	14.1	15.2	-1.06
Elden Campbell	59	56	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.38	-2	-1	-1	15.6	14.7	0.92	15.1	13.1	2.01
P.J. Brown	72	68	-0.75	0.25	-1.01	-0.46	-10	7	-17	14.3	17.8	-3.44	13.6	15.7	-2.07

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rodney Rogers	60	61	0.74	-0.24	0.99	0.39	12	-9	21	13.2	15.9	-2.71	16.2	13.7	2.54
Tony Delk	63	66	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.39	11	-8	19	13.9	15.0	-1.10	16.4	13.0	3.36
Tom Gugliotta	64	67	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.35	7	-4	11	13.4	16.0	-2.58	15.3	15.2	0.03
Jason Kidd	91	95	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.38	5	-2	7	13.9	21.2	-7.33	15.2	17.5	-2.32
Shawn Marion	78	83	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.49	-2	5	-7	14.3	14.0	0.31	14.7	18.2	-3.55
Jake Tsakalidis	18	18	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.06	-3	6	-9	16.9	13.6	3.25	15.8	15.2	0.62
Vinny Del Negro	33	30	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.06	1	2	-1	14.6	14.1	0.50	16.8	14.6	2.14
Mario Elie	16	17	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.06	-7	10	-17	17.6	13.6	3.97	10.9	16.2	-5.23
Clifford Robinson	57	58	-0.26	0.76	-1.03	-0.00	-9	12	-21	15.3	12.7	2.54	14.3	16.7	-2.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.35,0.34,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.5,0.43,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.45,0.37,0.52,0.4,0.38,0.23,0.33,0.29,0.42,0.41,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.45,0.85,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 80, LAL 86	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.38,0.38,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.43,0.34,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.31,0.3,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.51,0.57,0.46,0.46,0.69,0.63,0.85,0.84,1	92.5%
PHI 102, DAL 106	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.38,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.34,0.46,0.45,0.85,0.99,1	91.8%
POR 117, LAC 122	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.62,0.58,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.29,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.69,0.92,1	91.7%