NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	79		Excitement	5.2 [779]		MVP	Clifford Robinson (DET): +10.7%
Boston Celtics	90		Comeback	1.2 [818]		LVP	Ben Wallace (DET): -22.7%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Clifford Robinson	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.03	-0.04	16	60%	0.17	2	-0.06	8	75%	0.00
Jon Barry	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.08	0.01	0.04	4	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dana Barros	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	8	25%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	11	46%	-0.01	3	-0.09	4	50%	-0.02
Michael Curry	-0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	5	40%	-0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Damon Jones	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	9	28%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.02	0.02	15	47%	-0.03	3	-0.07	4	50%	-0.02
Ben Wallace	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.20	-0.04	-0.01	5	25%	-0.09	5	-0.13	6	33%	-0.06

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Delk	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.01	0.01	11	67%	0.09	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.07	0.05	-0.03	16	57%	0.12	5	-0.11	12	83%	0.03
Kedrick Brown	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.03	-0.04	19	62%	0.15	6	-0.16	10	90%	0.03
Kenny Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.01	-0.03	10	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Walter McCarty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.01	5	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	0.02	6	58%	0.02	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	360.8	2.4	31.2	18.6	28.3	2.3	36.4	480.0
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +20.2%

BOS +23.2%

DET -5.9%

BOS +11.4%

BOS +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	BOS	NBA	DET	BOS	NBA
this game	15.1	16.2	15.6	86.8	96.8	102.3
season	15.7	15.0		101.9	100.9
opponent	15.7	15.8		98.8	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	16.8	13.3	17.6	13.1	15.1
BOS	14.6	18.0	16.0	16.3	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dana Barros	3	3	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-13	15	5.7	15.4	-9.74	18.3	16.1	2.20
Damon Jones	58	58	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.12	3	-14	17	13.8	17.4	-3.57	17.6	13.9	3.63
Corliss Williamson	75	75	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.23	4	-15	19	14.6	17.5	-2.93	16.3	15.7	0.67
Jon Barry	25	24	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.08	-3	-8	5	12.2	16.2	-3.93	14.5	16.8	-2.24
Jerry Stackhouse	71	72	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.11	-7	-4	-3	15.3	14.3	1.01	16.5	15.0	1.49
Michael Curry	26	29	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.00	-13	2	-15	17.0	14.3	2.68	17.4	15.7	1.76
Chucky Atkins	30	32	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	0.00	-16	5	-21	18.5	13.4	5.14	13.5	17.6	-4.08
Ben Wallace	83	86	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.14	-12	1	-13	15.7	8.9	6.81	16.0	18.3	-2.25
Clifford Robinson	84	86	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.15	-13	2	-15	15.0	15.9	-0.83	16.0	18.3	-2.25

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Pierce	77	75	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.16	19	-8	27	16.0	17.2	-1.26	15.6	12.5	3.14
Antoine Walker	87	85	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.09	20	-9	29	16.0	19.8	-3.88	15.6	8.2	7.41
Eric Williams	52	51	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.21	9	2	7	16.4	15.9	0.54	16.0	13.9	2.08
Kenny Anderson	56	55	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.12	10	1	9	16.4	15.9	0.56	15.1	15.0	0.10
Tony Battie	71	69	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.07	11	0	11	16.1	16.5	-0.45	15.5	13.9	1.61
Kedrick Brown	1	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	14	-17	24.0	16.1	7.88	2.5	15.4	-12.87
Rodney Rogers	60	56	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.14	-6	17	-23	16.2	16.3	-0.11	14.9	15.5	-0.60
Tony Delk	56	56	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	-0.02	-2	13	-15	16.2	16.2	0.07	13.9	17.0	-3.15
Walter McCarty	5	6	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.01	-3	14	-17	19.0	16.0	2.95	6.3	15.7	-9.37

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.68,0.62,0.71,0.71,0.63,0.66,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.54,0.51,0.65,0.74,0.8,0.88,0.88,0.89,0.83,0.84,0.7,0.75,0.82,0.81,0.9,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.91,0.95,0.97,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 82, DET 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.65,0.73,0.8,0.83,0.86,0.83,0.8,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.82,0.85,0.87,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.88,0.95,0.97,1,1,1,1	95.6%
PHI 103, NYK 117	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.59,0.59,0.46,0.46,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.77,0.72,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.91,0.86,0.79,0.77,0.78,0.74,0.85,0.91,0.89,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.9,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.0%
SEA 90, SAS 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.69,0.64,0.69,0.59,0.5,0.6,0.66,0.73,0.75,0.88,0.87,0.92,0.81,0.77,0.84,0.87,0.87,0.87,0.79,0.8,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%