NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	90		Excitement	5.0 [854]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +30.1%
San Antonio Spurs	103		Comeback	1.0 [1137]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -14.0%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Collison	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.10	0.01	0.04	8	78%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Ronald Murray	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vitaly Potapenko	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome James	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	10	45%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Danny Fortson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.02	3	71%	0.03	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Antonio Daniels	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	9	61%	0.01	1	-0.02	10	90%	0.01
Reggie Evans	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.02	3	67%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	11	44%	-0.07	1	-0.00	5	80%	-0.01
Ray Allen	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.06	-0.05	19	45%	-0.01	3	-0.08	4	25%	-0.04
Damien Wilkins	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.03	-0.01	10	41%	-0.05	4	-0.07	2	0%	-0.04

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.3,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.29,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.23	0.06	-0.02	15	83%	0.30	1	-0.00	17	88%	0.05
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.02	0.00	10	76%	0.13	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.01
Bruce Bowen	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.02	-0.04	8	50%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Massenburg	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	3	33%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	2	67%	0.00	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.06	-0.02	0.05	13	37%	-0.13	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.1,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.15	-0.01	-0.01	21	42%	-0.04	4	-0.10	6	33%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	32.1	3.6	31.8	19.0	36.0	3.8	32.4	158.6
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +24.9%

SAS +12.4%

SAS +1.7%

SAS +8.9%

SAS +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	SAS	NBA	SEA	SAS	NBA
this game	17.0	17.1	15.5	108.4	119.8	104.0
season	16.5	16.3		109.5	105.8
opponent	15.6	15.6		98.4	107.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	19.3	15.3	20.7	13.3	17.0
SAS	15.0	18.1	16.4	18.6	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vitaly Potapenko	3	3	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.03	4	-17	21	9.3	17.3	-7.95	11.7	17.3	-5.61
Nick Collison	34	34	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.15	7	-20	27	15.6	17.9	-2.29	18.0	16.5	1.57
Ronald Murray	25	25	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.04	3	-16	19	16.7	17.1	-0.40	18.2	16.6	1.63
Damien Wilkins	58	60	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.12	2	-15	17	15.6	20.4	-4.81	17.1	17.0	0.06
Danny Fortson	28	32	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.01	-2	-11	9	17.5	16.7	0.75	17.8	16.6	1.21
Ray Allen	72	75	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.16	-8	-5	-3	16.8	18.2	-1.36	17.2	16.5	0.72
Reggie Evans	20	21	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.02	-16	3	-19	22.1	15.4	6.78	16.1	17.4	-1.30
Luke Ridnour	71	75	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.16	-10	-3	-7	17.0	17.0	0.00	17.4	15.1	2.28
Antonio Daniels	72	74	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.04	-20	7	-27	17.2	15.7	1.47	16.8	19.0	-2.23
Jerome James	32	31	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	0.09	-25	12	-37	18.3	16.2	2.14	15.3	18.1	-2.80

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nazr Mohammed	34	35	0.55	-0.05	0.59	-0.01	19	-6	25	16.0	17.8	-1.79	19.2	15.4	3.85
Tony Parker	64	63	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.10	15	-2	17	17.0	17.5	-0.50	16.8	17.6	-0.86
Manu Ginobili	66	65	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.02	17	-4	21	16.5	18.9	-2.37	16.7	18.2	-1.56
Bruce Bowen	72	69	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.10	14	-1	15	17.4	15.4	2.06	17.4	14.8	2.66
Tim Duncan	73	71	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.04	15	-2	17	16.9	18.1	-1.17	17.2	15.7	1.46
Devin Brown	3	4	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.01	2	11	-9	15.7	17.1	-1.47	16.2	17.0	-0.79
Robert Horry	46	41	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.08	-1	14	-15	17.6	16.4	1.18	14.9	19.0	-4.10
Glenn Robinson	8	8	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.03	0	13	-13	18.9	16.9	1.98	19.1	16.8	2.35
Tony Massenburg	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	13	-13	24.0	16.9	7.08	8.0	17.1	-9.11
Beno Udrih	22	20	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.02	-2	15	-17	17.5	17.0	0.50	17.6	16.8	0.86
Brent Barry	40	38	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.21	-14	27	-41	17.4	16.8	0.60	16.4	17.5	-1.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.69,0.64,0.69,0.59,0.5,0.6,0.66,0.73,0.75,0.88,0.87,0.92,0.81,0.77,0.84,0.87,0.87,0.87,0.79,0.8,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.98,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 73, WAS 84	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.66,0.66,0.6,0.61,0.54,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.81,0.86,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.83,0.74,0.89,0.92,0.87,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.88,0.98,1,1	95.3%
MIA 99, LAL 108	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.71,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.73,0.79,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.9,0.81,0.87,0.86,0.77,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.98,1,0.97,0.98,1,1	95.0%
WAS 101, CLE 110	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.72,0.82,0.76,0.81,0.84,0.87,0.79,0.77,0.86,0.9,0.9,0.95,0.88,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.93,0.93,0.99,0.99,1,1	94.8%