NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	99		Excitement	5.4 [702]		MVP	Nick Van Exel (LAL): +14.2%
Los Angeles Lakers	108		Comeback	1.0 [995]		LVP	P.J. Brown (MIA): -13.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ike Austin	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04	0.05	0.01	0.02	9	69%	0.06	1	-0.02	11	73%	-0.01
Voshon Lenard	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.07	-0.04	0.01	17	67%	0.09	3	-0.07	8	75%	-0.01
Dan Majerle	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.04	-0.01	3	50%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Eric Murdock	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.07	-0.00	0.06	8	75%	0.02	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.01
Tim Hardaway	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	12	62%	0.11	5	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Terry Mills	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	7	43%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Keith Askins	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.14	-0.01	-0.04	5	28%	-0.07	2	-0.03	8	37%	-0.03
P.J. Brown	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.13	-0.02	-0.01	10	29%	-0.10	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.01

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.12	0.03	0.00	11	77%	0.15	1	-0.00	8	75%	-0.01
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.02	-0.02	9	78%	0.16	4	-0.09	9	89%	0.03
Eddie Jones	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	11	65%	0.08	3	-0.07	9	78%	0.01
Corie Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	1	75%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Elden Campbell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	6	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	6	100%	0.02
Robert Horry	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	4	20%	-0.05	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	4	20%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Rick Fox	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	6	42%	0.03	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.13	-0.01	-0.04	16	50%	-0.01	4	-0.09	16	50%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.8	1.8	30.0	15.8	29.2	2.4	44.5	151.4
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +16.6%

LAL +14.5%

LAL +13.1%

LAL +3.5%

LAL +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	LAL	NBA	MIA	LAL	NBA
this game	14.6	14.9	15.6	101.0	111.3	102.5
season	15.8	14.8		104.7	110.0
opponent	15.6	16.2		102.6	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.0	15.4	14.4	13.7	14.6
LAL	15.0	15.2	15.6	14.0	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Majerle	32	31	0.10	-0.60	0.71	-0.10	7	-16	23	14.2	14.8	-0.60	13.9	15.4	-1.44
Ike Austin	52	54	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.30	10	-19	29	13.9	15.5	-1.57	14.1	15.9	-1.82
Terry Mills	16	15	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.03	0	-9	9	16.1	14.3	1.72	16.3	14.7	1.60
Keith Askins	11	11	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.02	-6	-3	-3	16.9	14.3	2.58	16.8	14.7	2.14
Eric Murdock	32	30	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.15	0	-9	9	14.2	14.8	-0.60	13.1	15.7	-2.68
Voshon Lenard	86	85	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.22	-4	-5	1	14.3	17.2	-2.99	14.9	15.2	-0.38
Jamal Mashburn	56	56	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.01	-14	5	-19	16.2	12.5	3.76	15.7	13.9	1.84
P.J. Brown	66	67	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.31	-5	-4	-1	13.7	16.5	-2.83	15.2	14.3	0.94
Alonzo Mourning	54	51	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	0.10	-21	12	-33	15.6	13.5	2.08	15.3	14.5	0.79
Tim Hardaway	85	85	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.18	-12	3	-15	14.2	17.1	-2.83	15.0	14.1	0.95

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Van Exel	66	67	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.13	20	-11	31	14.7	15.4	-0.74	14.8	14.2	0.67
Eddie Jones	76	79	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.11	20	-11	31	14.9	15.0	-0.17	14.6	14.8	-0.27
Shaquille O'Neal	66	67	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.16	15	-6	21	15.2	14.3	0.87	15.5	12.7	2.75
Robert Horry	56	58	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.08	11	-2	13	15.2	14.5	0.79	15.7	13.0	2.66
Rick Fox	69	67	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.07	10	-1	11	15.2	14.1	1.14	14.4	15.1	-0.74
Corie Blount	27	26	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.14	-3	12	-15	15.3	14.8	0.58	14.0	14.8	-0.85
Kobe Bryant	56	57	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.24	-8	17	-25	14.2	16.0	-1.79	14.2	15.1	-0.90
Elden Campbell	38	38	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	0.14	-9	18	-27	14.2	15.4	-1.12	12.9	15.7	-2.74
Derek Fisher	31	31	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.10	-11	20	-31	15.4	14.7	0.74	14.2	14.8	-0.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.71,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.73,0.79,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.9,0.81,0.87,0.86,0.77,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.98,1,0.97,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 92, NOP 104	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.63,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.62,0.69,0.7,0.68,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.73,0.79,0.84,0.9,0.87,0.82,0.91,0.87,0.87,0.84,0.91,0.87,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%
SEA 90, SAS 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.69,0.64,0.69,0.59,0.5,0.6,0.66,0.73,0.75,0.88,0.87,0.92,0.81,0.77,0.84,0.87,0.87,0.87,0.79,0.8,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	95.0%
MIA 89, CHI 107	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.7,0.64,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.68,0.72,0.74,0.85,0.84,0.91,0.88,0.89,0.9,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.93,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.92,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.9%