NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	86		Excitement	4.4 [904]		MVP	Antonio Daniels (SAS): +10.3%
San Antonio Spurs	100		Comeback	1.4 [764]		LVP	Michael Finley (DAL): -19.8%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Howard Eisley	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.01	-0.02	9	67%	0.09	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	-0.00	8	62%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Calvin Booth	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	0	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Eduardo Najera	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wang Zhi-zhi	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	9	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Greg Buckner	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.14	0.02	-0.05	14	26%	-0.07	0	0.00	6	83%	0.05
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	0.02	13	50%	-0.07	0	0.00	12	92%	0.02
Michael Finley	-0.20	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.14	-0.02	0.03	24	44%	-0.09	5	-0.11	7	86%	-0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.02	-0.03	8	75%	0.14	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	9	75%	0.10	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Sean Elliott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	7	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.05	0.02	20	56%	0.08	2	-0.04	5	60%	-0.02
Steve Kerr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	0.00	0.04	5	80%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Ferry	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	-0.01	0.03	8	62%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shawnelle Scott	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	14	56%	0.05	3	-0.07	4	50%	0.01
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	5	27%	-0.04	1	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	5	20%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.7	28.2	20.5	26.2	2.4	28.5	134.7
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +57.6%

DAL -17.3%

SAS +14.7%

DAL -6.0%

SAS +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAS	NBA	DAL	SAS	NBA
this game	15.7	17.2	15.5	97.7	114.9	100.9
season	15.2	15.9		104.6	103.4
opponent	15.5	15.3		96.5	101.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.7	16.3	17.4	14.5	15.7
SAS	17.3	18.0	15.3	18.2	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Buckner	13	13	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.10	4	-18	22	12.2	16.3	-4.19	18.0	17.1	0.95
Eduardo Najera	1	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-14	14	4.0	15.9	-11.86	15.0	17.2	-2.25
Wang Zhi-zhi	3	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-16	18	6.7	16.0	-9.38	14.7	17.3	-2.62
Shawn Bradley	58	56	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.12	-1	-13	12	16.1	15.1	1.00	17.1	17.5	-0.40
Howard Eisley	57	56	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.10	-2	-12	10	15.0	17.1	-2.16	18.4	15.1	3.31
Calvin Booth	23	22	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.01	-9	-5	-4	14.1	16.3	-2.22	15.8	17.7	-1.90
Michael Finley	83	82	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.11	-9	-5	-4	15.7	16.2	-0.50	17.1	19.0	-1.91
Dirk Nowitzki	70	70	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.12	-10	-4	-6	16.3	13.6	2.66	17.5	16.1	1.41
Juwan Howard	72	72	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.10	-20	6	-26	16.7	11.3	5.40	16.9	18.5	-1.62
Steve Nash	60	59	-0.68	0.18	-0.85	0.06	-25	11	-36	16.4	14.3	2.11	16.9	17.7	-0.82

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	81	84	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.01	16	-2	18	17.2	17.7	-0.51	15.8	14.0	1.81
David Robinson	61	61	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.06	14	0	14	16.6	18.5	-1.86	16.9	13.1	3.72
Antonio Daniels	64	64	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.06	9	5	4	16.3	19.6	-3.22	15.9	15.2	0.71
Danny Ferry	42	43	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.03	10	4	6	16.1	18.2	-2.17	17.7	13.8	3.90
Terry Porter	53	54	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.07	8	6	2	16.7	18.0	-1.32	16.0	15.3	0.75
Steve Kerr	31	30	0.22	0.28	-0.05	-0.01	8	6	2	18.5	16.5	2.05	14.2	16.5	-2.37
Avery Johnson	33	33	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.02	6	8	-2	18.4	16.5	1.88	15.6	15.8	-0.19
Sean Elliott	37	39	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.10	1	13	-12	18.8	16.0	2.86	14.4	16.8	-2.37
Malik Rose	30	30	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.11	-2	16	-18	18.6	16.5	2.09	13.6	16.8	-3.28
Shawnelle Scott	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	14	-14	6.0	17.3	-11.33	4.0	15.9	-11.86
Samaki Walker	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	14	-14	15.0	17.2	-2.25	4.0	15.9	-11.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.7,0.76,0.76,0.84,0.91,0.94,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.86,0.89,0.91,0.96,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 89, SAS 98	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.7,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.63,0.65,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.74,0.76,0.73,0.87,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.98,1	95.6%
PHX 87, DAL 93	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.61,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.76,0.81,0.79,0.85,0.92,0.92,0.89,0.9,0.85,0.84,0.88,0.83,0.88,0.97,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,1	95.5%
SEA 84, WAS 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.71,0.67,0.69,0.65,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.63,0.67,0.78,0.76,0.84,0.9,0.89,0.85,0.89,0.87,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.89,0.96,0.9,0.94,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.3%