NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	91		Excitement	4.1 [972]		MVP	Jerry Stackhouse (DET): +16.1%
Detroit Pistons	112		Comeback	1.2 [1198]		LVP	Matt Maloney (CHI): -8.5%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Fred Hoiberg	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.05	13	54%	0.10	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Elton Brand	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.03	18	60%	0.06	3	-0.06	17	71%	-0.03
Corey Benjamin	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.09	-0.02	-0.08	10	57%	0.06	6	-0.09	3	100%	0.02
B.J. Armstrong	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Carr	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	9	52%	-0.03	1	-0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Michael Ruffin	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	1	67%	0.01	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.01
Chris Anstey	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.11	-0.00	-0.03	8	33%	-0.03	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.03
Matt Maloney	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	0.02	9	42%	-0.06	2	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.14	0.03	0.01	12	87%	0.21	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jud Buechler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.13	0.01	0.02	8	87%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Crotty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.02	0.00	7	79%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mikki Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.02	6	67%	0.04	1	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Terry Mills	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	62%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	7	71%	0.06	3	-0.05	3	67%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	7	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Loy Vaught	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	67%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Montross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	-0.04	2	40%	-0.02	1	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	5	60%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	6	65%	0.02	5	-0.09	8	62%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	2.5	31.3	15.0	27.2	1.7	27.0	128.4
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +55.3%

CHI -13.4%

CHI -4.0%

DET +11.0%

DET +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	DET	NBA	CHI	DET	NBA
this game	17.5	14.3	15.2	100.0	124.4	101.7
season	16.5	14.1		91.8	104.2
opponent	15.3	14.9		103.0	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	18.6	16.6	15.5	19.9	17.5
DET	15.7	13.4	13.9	14.4	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
B.J. Armstrong	27	26	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.04	-5	-16	11	17.9	17.3	0.60	16.1	13.6	2.50
Chris Carr	38	39	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.11	-12	-9	-3	15.9	18.7	-2.81	12.3	15.9	-3.61
Chris Anstey	39	40	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.16	-15	-6	-9	17.0	17.9	-0.84	12.5	15.7	-3.19
Michael Ruffin	61	60	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.14	-15	-6	-9	18.7	15.2	3.49	14.8	13.3	1.55
Matt Maloney	54	52	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.02	-11	-10	-1	17.4	17.6	-0.15	13.9	14.9	-1.03
Fred Hoiberg	78	77	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	0.10	-16	-5	-11	18.0	14.5	3.46	14.7	12.0	2.69
Elton Brand	82	80	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.07	-12	-9	-3	16.9	23.2	-6.34	14.8	10.3	4.50
Corey Benjamin	76	76	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.12	-19	-2	-17	17.7	16.5	1.24	14.6	12.4	2.22

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mikki Moore	44	44	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.13	20	1	19	13.3	15.2	-1.88	16.3	18.6	-2.30
Jud Buechler	44	45	0.36	0.14	0.23	-0.22	20	1	19	12.6	16.0	-3.39	16.4	18.6	-2.23
Jerry Stackhouse	53	54	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.04	10	11	-1	15.0	13.4	1.61	16.7	18.6	-1.88
Lindsey Hunter	47	48	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.04	9	12	-3	15.4	13.1	2.27	16.6	18.5	-1.82
Jerome Williams	39	39	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.17	15	6	9	14.3	14.3	0.06	17.2	17.7	-0.57
John Crotty	47	46	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.17	14	7	7	13.5	15.2	-1.65	18.1	16.9	1.22
Jermaine Jackson	35	35	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.16	11	10	1	12.7	15.3	-2.59	18.7	16.8	1.92
Terry Mills	20	21	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.02	5	16	-11	14.5	14.2	0.26	20.2	16.7	3.49
Christian Laettner	52	53	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.02	4	17	-13	14.0	14.7	-0.76	18.0	16.8	1.23
Michael Curry	46	46	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.11	1	20	-19	16.0	12.6	3.39	18.6	16.4	2.23
Loy Vaught	10	11	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	21	-21	17.2	13.9	3.26	20.1	17.1	2.94
Eric Montross	13	13	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.04	-4	25	-29	16.7	13.9	2.80	14.9	17.9	-3.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.63,0.69,0.64,0.59,0.64,0.71,0.78,0.79,0.77,0.7,0.76,0.76,0.74,0.85,0.88,0.89,0.9,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 87, DET 103	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.46,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.78,0.74,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.7,0.71,0.86,0.88,0.93,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%
ORL 80, IND 94	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.64,0.59,0.61,0.7,0.67,0.78,0.77,0.77,0.75,0.83,0.86,0.79,0.75,0.81,0.8,0.81,0.93,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%
DAL 95, POR 112	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.63,0.73,0.73,0.76,0.8,0.83,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%