NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	80		Excitement	4.2 [979]		MVP	Al Harrington (IND): +12.4%
Indiana Pacers	94		Comeback	1.1 [861]		LVP	Jermaine O'Neal (IND): -7.3%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jameer Nelson	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.04	0.04	-0.04	12	40%	0.05	1	-0.01	6	100%	0.03
Dwight Howard	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.01	13	65%	0.10	4	-0.08	5	40%	-0.03
Bo Outlaw	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	1	100%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Darko Milicic	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	5	38%	0.00	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Grant Hill	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.04	-0.04	0.03	13	55%	0.01	1	-0.04	3	0%	-0.05
Keith Bogans	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	1	67%	-0.01	3	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Tony Battie	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	5	40%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	11	44%	-0.02	3	-0.03	3	100%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	-0.03	5	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.16	0.01	0.05	15	70%	0.14	1	-0.02	7	57%	-0.03
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.12	0.02	0.05	17	72%	0.18	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Maceo Baston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Tinsley	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.06	0.02	-0.06	8	44%	0.05	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rawle Marshall	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Orien Greene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Granger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	6	64%	0.05	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.00
Sarunas Jasikevicius	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	5	30%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Foster	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	9	42%	-0.01	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.14	0.00	-0.06	14	33%	-0.03	4	-0.05	5	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	1.7	27.2	15.6	26.2	2.5	32.2	128.2
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +42.9%

ORL -3.7%

IND +21.5%

ORL -9.1%

ORL -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	IND	NBA	ORL	IND	NBA
this game	16.6	16.9	15.4	93.0	109.3	104.5
season	15.9	15.3		103.4	101.3
opponent	15.3	15.7		103.9	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.3	19.8	16.1	16.7	16.6
IND	15.7	16.2	18.2	17.6	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JJ Redick	17	17	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.13	4	-18	22	15.6	16.8	-1.16	18.4	16.6	1.80
Bo Outlaw	21	21	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.11	3	-17	20	16.7	16.6	0.11	17.6	16.7	0.94
Jameer Nelson	53	54	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.12	-1	-13	12	15.1	18.9	-3.83	17.3	16.2	1.15
Tony Battie	44	45	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.16	-1	-13	12	15.0	18.3	-3.33	16.5	17.3	-0.78
Keith Bogans	26	26	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.06	-5	-9	4	18.9	15.6	3.36	16.7	17.0	-0.25
Hedo Turkoglu	48	49	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.05	-10	-4	-6	15.4	18.1	-2.73	15.9	18.2	-2.25
Darko Milicic	24	24	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.10	-13	-1	-12	19.3	15.5	3.82	17.1	16.8	0.30
Grant Hill	60	60	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.03	-9	-5	-4	15.6	18.9	-3.36	17.0	16.7	0.25
Trevor Ariza	32	32	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	0.01	-11	-3	-8	19.6	14.8	4.75	16.8	16.9	-0.10
Carlos Arroyo	33	32	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.03	-13	-1	-12	18.9	15.1	3.83	16.2	17.3	-1.15
Dwight Howard	72	70	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.02	-14	0	-14	16.3	17.9	-1.52	17.2	15.6	1.65

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Foster	60	61	0.49	0.01	0.49	-0.09	20	-6	26	16.3	18.3	-1.95	16.3	17.2	-0.93
Al Harrington	60	63	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.00	14	0	14	16.9	16.9	0.03	16.9	15.7	1.21
Stephen Jackson	60	62	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.01	12	2	10	16.8	17.1	-0.30	16.1	17.9	-1.79
Marquis Daniels	19	19	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.03	10	4	6	18.2	16.5	1.67	19.2	15.9	3.31
Jamaal Tinsley	47	49	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.06	11	3	8	16.7	17.2	-0.50	16.8	16.4	0.40
Jermaine O'Neal	67	65	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.13	3	11	-8	16.8	17.2	-0.39	17.0	15.4	1.59
Sarunas Jasikevicius	35	32	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.05	4	10	-6	17.2	16.7	0.49	16.7	16.5	0.27
Danny Granger	50	48	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.10	2	12	-10	16.9	17.0	-0.11	16.1	17.2	-1.17
Maceo Baston	15	16	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.15	-2	16	-18	19.5	16.4	3.18	13.2	17.4	-4.17
Darrell Armstrong	10	10	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.04	1	13	-12	15.0	17.2	-2.16	18.9	16.3	2.62
Rawle Marshall	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	16	-18	17.0	16.9	0.10	16.0	16.6	-0.60
Orien Greene	4	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	17	-20	17.7	16.9	0.88	15.3	16.6	-1.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.64,0.59,0.61,0.7,0.67,0.78,0.77,0.77,0.75,0.83,0.86,0.79,0.75,0.81,0.8,0.81,0.93,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 89, SAC 100	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.54,0.51,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.73,0.78,0.74,0.77,0.82,0.87,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.84,0.83,0.83,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	96.4%
BOS 89, LAL 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.63,0.62,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.6,0.75,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.87,0.8,0.84,0.85,0.92,0.94,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.8%
CHI 91, DET 112	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.63,0.69,0.64,0.59,0.64,0.71,0.78,0.79,0.77,0.7,0.76,0.76,0.74,0.85,0.88,0.89,0.9,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%