NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	84		Excitement	5.8 [649]		MVP	Dan Majerle (MIA): +18.4%
Miami Heat	95		Comeback	2.8 [617]		LVP	Chucky Atkins (ORL): -14.8%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pat Garrity	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.05	-0.02	8	50%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monty Williams	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.02	-0.04	7	65%	0.06	3	-0.03	6	83%	0.02
Darrell Armstrong	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.04	-0.00	17	43%	0.03	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Anthony Johnson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Strong	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	67%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Corey Maggette	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0.02	6	68%	0.02	2	-0.05	10	70%	-0.02
John Amaechi	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	6	44%	-0.01	4	-0.11	4	75%	-0.00
Ron Mercer	-0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.12	-0.03	-0.01	12	31%	-0.08	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.02
Ben Wallace	-0.14	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.06	-0.07	0.01	5	60%	-0.00	4	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.07	-0.06	0.01	9	28%	-0.11	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.06	0.10	-0.02	7	67%	0.18	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.00	0.10	-0.04	5	92%	0.21	4	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	-0.00	-0.02	15	58%	0.09	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Harold Jamison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	1	75%	0.01	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.00
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	7	36%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Otis Thorpe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.02	-0.01	7	37%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	11	67%	0.09	5	-0.15	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	0.00	0.03	14	52%	0.01	5	-0.11	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.7	1.7	27.4	15.6	24.2	2.4	26.5	125.5
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +59.3%

ORL -2.3%

ORL -2.4%

ORL -3.4%

ORL -1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIA	NBA	ORL	MIA	NBA
this game	14.8	17.6	15.2	93.3	108.0	101.7
season	13.6	15.7		100.4	101.2
opponent	15.9	15.4		98.2	99.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	12.9	15.5	15.0	15.9	14.8
MIA	17.1	18.0	17.0	18.4	17.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Doleac	22	20	0.09	-0.59	0.69	-0.17	9	-20	29	15.5	14.6	0.90	18.7	17.3	1.47
Derek Strong	6	6	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-15	19	8.5	15.2	-6.73	14.8	17.8	-2.98
Anthony Johnson	7	7	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-15	19	9.4	15.2	-5.80	14.7	17.9	-3.15
Bo Outlaw	36	37	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.04	-5	-6	1	14.4	15.0	-0.65	17.2	17.9	-0.73
Chucky Atkins	37	36	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.22	2	-13	15	14.0	15.3	-1.37	18.4	17.1	1.36
Ron Mercer	44	45	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.00	-8	-3	-5	14.8	14.7	0.08	17.4	17.8	-0.44
Corey Maggette	46	43	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.18	-3	-8	5	14.7	14.8	-0.08	17.8	17.4	0.44
Pat Garrity	41	40	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.18	-5	-6	1	15.0	14.6	0.36	18.8	16.6	2.27
Monty Williams	49	46	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.31	-1	-10	9	15.5	13.9	1.61	17.3	17.9	-0.60
Ben Wallace	46	45	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.06	-14	3	-17	15.8	13.7	2.10	17.1	18.1	-0.98
Darrell Armstrong	58	57	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.13	-18	7	-25	14.9	14.5	0.38	17.6	17.6	0.00
John Amaechi	58	58	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	0.17	-20	9	-29	14.9	14.6	0.24	17.4	18.1	-0.69

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Clar. Weatherspoon	42	45	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.22	11	0	11	18.5	16.8	1.74	16.0	13.6	2.36
Dan Majerle	71	74	0.53	-0.03	0.56	-0.03	19	-8	27	17.4	18.5	-1.06	15.5	11.4	4.06
Bruce Bowen	35	36	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.31	2	9	-7	18.3	17.2	1.12	13.7	15.5	-1.71
Alonzo Mourning	61	62	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.07	14	-3	17	17.4	18.0	-0.56	14.8	14.7	0.14
Jamal Mashburn	62	64	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.11	4	7	-3	17.3	18.5	-1.20	15.4	13.3	2.07
Anthony Carter	65	67	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.18	1	10	-9	18.2	15.9	2.30	14.6	15.4	-0.82
Tim Hardaway	17	16	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.07	8	3	5	16.2	17.9	-1.71	13.3	15.1	-1.78
Otis Thorpe	27	28	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.25	-3	14	-17	18.0	17.4	0.56	14.7	14.8	-0.14
Mark Strickland	14	13	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	12	-13	17.4	17.6	-0.22	13.5	15.0	-1.54
Harold Jamison	4	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	12	-13	15.5	17.7	-2.21	8.0	15.0	-7.01
P.J. Brown	42	42	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.07	1	10	-9	16.9	18.3	-1.36	14.0	15.5	-1.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.63,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.5,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.26,0.38,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.64,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.76,0.72,0.83,0.92,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 75, ATL 89	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.47,0.56,0.54,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.4,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.63,0.78,0.88,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1	93.8%
UTA 77, LAL 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.34,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.36,0.29,0.41,0.45,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.79,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.3%
GSW 101, LAL 105	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.53,0.47,0.48,0.39,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.69,0.76,0.77,0.86,0.85,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.99,1	93.0%