NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	75		Excitement	5.4 [720]		MVP	Dikembe Mutombo (ATL): +17.5%
Atlanta Hawks	89		Comeback	2.0 [680]		LVP	Otis Thorpe (DET): -21.9%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aaron McKie	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.02	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Long	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rick Mahorn	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	9	45%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Joe Dumars	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	16	49%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.02
Terry Mills	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	0.02	0.04	10	46%	0.00	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.01
Theo Ratliff	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.01	-0.01	0.07	0	50%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Grant Hill	-0.12	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.05	-0.02	19	47%	-0.02	4	-0.10	5	80%	0.01
Otis Thorpe	-0.22	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.11	-0.05	0.06	13	32%	-0.16	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.14	0.05	0.02	14	76%	0.21	1	-0.04	6	100%	0.03
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.06	-0.00	13	57%	0.11	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.03
Alan Henderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	13	53%	0.02	1	-0.02	8	100%	0.04
Eldridge Recasner	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrin Hancock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Henry James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tyrone Corbin	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	9	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Mookie Blaylock	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.21,-0.21,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.12	0.06	0.00	14	43%	0.08	5	-0.14	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	2.3	28.6	17.6	28.0	2.4	29.3	134.6
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +33.1%

ATL +27.1%

DET -3.3%

DET -9.0%

ATL +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	ATL	NBA	DET	ATL	NBA
this game	18.4	18.3	15.6	96.2	112.7	104.4
season	17.1	16.4		107.6	105.3
opponent	16.0	16.2		100.3	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.8	19.8	19.4	18.8	18.4
ATL	20.2	18.1	16.6	18.1	18.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Curry	2	3	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.07	-2	-12	10	12.0	18.6	-6.59	11.3	18.5	-7.21
Aaron McKie	38	39	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.14	2	-16	18	17.6	19.2	-1.59	17.4	19.1	-1.74
Rick Mahorn	5	6	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.10	-7	-7	0	17.0	18.5	-1.52	16.7	18.4	-1.73
Grant Long	21	21	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.05	-2	-12	10	20.8	17.6	3.20	17.8	18.4	-0.62
Theo Ratliff	11	13	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.00	-5	-9	4	20.1	18.1	1.94	18.8	18.2	0.69
Terry Mills	62	60	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.19	-2	-12	10	18.2	19.1	-0.88	18.3	18.2	0.14
Otis Thorpe	55	55	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	0.01	-11	-3	-8	17.8	20.0	-2.17	19.3	15.9	3.37
Joe Dumars	73	74	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.06	-11	-3	-8	18.3	19.8	-1.47	18.2	19.0	-0.78
Grant Hill	71	70	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.18	-12	-2	-10	18.5	17.9	0.62	18.4	17.0	1.43
Lindsey Hunter	52	54	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.01	-20	6	-26	19.1	17.2	1.90	18.3	18.2	0.04

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Christian Laettner	60	58	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.01	23	-9	32	18.2	18.4	-0.14	18.4	18.6	-0.24
Mookie Blaylock	75	75	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.05	16	-2	18	18.0	23.0	-4.99	18.3	22.7	-4.41
Steven Smith	77	76	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.12	13	1	12	18.0	27.0	-8.96	18.4	18.5	-0.08
Dikembe Mutombo	71	72	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.05	12	2	10	18.7	14.1	4.61	18.5	17.3	1.18
Eldridge Recasner	18	15	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.15	7	7	0	16.3	18.9	-2.57	19.1	18.3	0.80
Tyrone Corbin	65	64	0.25	0.25	0.01	-0.01	9	5	4	18.3	18.1	0.24	18.0	20.3	-2.27
Henry James	6	6	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.03	-2	16	-18	13.3	18.7	-5.34	22.3	18.1	4.24
Darrin Hancock	5	6	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.01	-2	16	-18	22.8	18.0	4.84	21.0	18.2	2.79
Alan Henderson	18	18	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.04	-6	20	-26	20.8	17.5	3.25	17.7	18.6	-0.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.47,0.56,0.54,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.4,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.63,0.78,0.88,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 84, MIA 92	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.43,0.28,0.39,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.85,0.87,0.89,0.97,0.99,1,1	94.4%
ORL 84, MIA 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.63,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.5,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.26,0.38,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.64,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.76,0.72,0.83,0.92,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.8%
MIL 109, UTA 116	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.68,0.6,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.58,0.49,0.41,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.77,0.92,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.7%