NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	117		Excitement	7.4 [344]		MVP	Ray Allen (MIL): +27.6%
Golden State Warriors	113		Comeback	1.3 [987]		LVP	Glenn Robinson (MIL): -13.9%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.28	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.08	0.17	-0.02	19	63%	0.31	2	-0.03	5	80%	0.01
Darvin Ham	0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.03	-0.00	7	81%	0.13	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Scott Williams	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	-0.00	4	100%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.01	11	73%	0.14	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Sam Cassell	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05	-0.01	0.05	-0.02	17	62%	0.14	4	-0.08	16	94%	0.06
Danny Manning	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.12	0.02	-0.02	3	37%	-0.03	2	-0.05	10	60%	0.01
Glenn Robinson	-0.14	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.08,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14	-0.12	-0.01	0.01	15	44%	-0.04	4	-0.10	6	67%	-0.01

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Caffey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	10	59%	0.03	0	0.00	12	75%	-0.01
Mookie Blaylock	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	21	55%	0.13	5	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Tony Farmer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.02	0.01	6	61%	-0.00	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
Sam Jacobson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	6	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	4	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bill Curley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	1	75%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Donyell Marshall	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	11	58%	0.16	5	-0.20	2	100%	0.02
Larry Hughes	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0.04,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	24	53%	0.01	4	-0.09	12	92%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.9	2.6	31.5	15.4	26.8	2.7	37.3	139.2
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +40.1%

GSW -0.0%

GSW -1.5%

MIL +8.8%

MIL +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	GSW	NBA	MIL	GSW	NBA
this game	13.5	14.7	15.2	114.7	110.8	101.7
season	14.9	14.7		105.5	97.2
opponent	14.7	15.4		105.8	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	13.4	13.3	13.2	14.4	13.5
GSW	13.3	14.4	14.5	16.9	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ervin Johnson	79	77	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.25	15	-11	26	12.7	16.3	-3.63	14.5	15.4	-0.88
Sam Cassell	89	90	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.36	10	-6	16	13.3	15.0	-1.67	14.7	14.3	0.41
Ray Allen	92	92	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.27	10	-6	16	13.1	18.0	-4.95	14.9	12.9	1.99
Tim Thomas	71	72	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.37	1	3	-2	13.9	12.6	1.28	15.1	13.7	1.41
Darvin Ham	57	58	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.07	11	-7	18	13.1	14.1	-0.98	13.4	16.4	-2.93
Glenn Robinson	67	67	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.31	-4	8	-12	13.4	13.8	-0.40	15.4	13.4	1.97
Danny Manning	13	11	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.02	-3	7	-10	14.8	13.4	1.41	13.0	14.9	-1.90
Scott Williams	23	24	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.13	-9	13	-22	15.7	12.9	2.78	16.0	14.3	1.71
Rafer Alston	19	19	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	0.13	-11	15	-26	17.2	12.7	4.45	13.6	14.9	-1.31

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Farmer	50	51	0.09	-0.59	0.67	-0.41	17	-21	38	14.8	14.6	0.28	14.6	12.5	2.14
Sam Jacobson	36	35	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.14	3	-7	10	13.5	15.3	-1.85	15.0	12.8	2.27
Bill Curley	22	21	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.12	2	-6	8	14.5	14.7	-0.19	15.8	13.0	2.80
Jason Caffey	66	66	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.33	9	-13	22	15.6	13.1	2.49	12.9	14.6	-1.70
Larry Hughes	94	95	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.42	6	-10	16	14.9	12.9	1.98	13.7	11.9	1.81
Mark Davis	32	32	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.06	-7	3	-10	13.9	15.1	-1.15	15.1	12.8	2.31
Adonal Foyle	46	45	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	0.14	-23	19	-42	14.0	15.3	-1.27	12.3	14.5	-2.24
Mookie Blaylock	82	82	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.29	-12	8	-20	15.1	13.2	1.86	12.7	17.0	-4.30
Donyell Marshall	82	83	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.27	-15	11	-26	14.6	15.0	-0.38	12.9	16.2	-3.28

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.32,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.37,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.45,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.31,0.25,0.33,0.25,0.26,0.16,0.15,0.17,0.19,0.23,0.26,0.28,0.12,0.14,0.08,0.19,0.15,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.19,0.2,0.31,0.29,0.15,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 89, VAN 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.44,0.31,0.26,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.15,0.17,0.27,0.21,0.15,0.16,0.13,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.19,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.14,0.11,0.17,0.14,0.29,0.08,0.27,0	92.8%
WAS 113, BKN 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.3,0.33,0.33,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.34,0.44,0.27,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.26,0.2,0.24,0.27,0.32,0.26,0.14,0.2,0.14,0.18,0.19,0.22,0.09,0.11,0.19,0.21,0.24,0.13,0.23,0.29,0.24,0.02,0	92.8%
IND 98, WAS 95	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.46,0.41,0.45,0.4,0.37,0.29,0.29,0.3,0.26,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.36,0.27,0.34,0.39,0.3,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.24,0.26,0.2,0.14,0.15,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.14,0.28,0.23,0.2,0.15,0.18,0.36,0.21,0.11,0.09,0	92.6%