NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	108		Excitement	4.1 [979]		MVP	Michael Dickerson (VAN): +13.0%
Vancouver Grizzlies	99		Comeback	1.3 [1158]		LVP	Mike Bibby (VAN): -15.3%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ron Harper	0.09	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.02	-0.00	9	65%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Rick Fox	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.01	0.01	7	75%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kobe Bryant	0.07	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.13	0.01	0.07	20	67%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Shaquille O'Neal	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.00	-0.02	10	70%	0.09	2	-0.03	7	43%	-0.03
Brian Shaw	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.03	5	60%	0.04	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	10	45%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
A.C. Green	0.01	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	9	60%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Travis Knight	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.09	-0.00	-0.06	6	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.09	0.00	-0.05	11	36%	-0.01	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03

Vancouver Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Dickerson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.17	0.01	0.04	17	80%	0.19	3	-0.06	6	67%	-0.01
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.11	-0.01	0.07	17	68%	0.06	1	-0.03	10	80%	0.00
Bryant Reeves	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	8	63%	0.05	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Othella Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.00	0.04	9	56%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Felipe Lopez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Milt Palacio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Carr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.14	-0.01	0.00	11	41%	-0.05	6	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.7	29.2	15.8	26.2	2.4	22.4	122.8
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +19.9%

LAL +0.8%

LAL +4.0%

LAL +22.6%

LAL +2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	VAN	NBA	LAL	VAN	NBA
this game	16.4	16.1	15.2	124.1	110.0	101.7
season	15.3	15.9		105.6	99.5
opponent	15.0	15.1		105.9	98.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	15.9	14.9	15.8	19.0	16.4
VAN	16.8	18.5	16.2	12.8	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Shaw	41	40	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.17	8	1	7	17.0	16.0	1.04	15.3	16.7	-1.44
Kobe Bryant	75	79	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.22	5	4	1	16.7	14.7	1.97	16.2	15.4	0.84
Shaquille O'Neal	69	74	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.05	14	-5	19	15.8	18.8	-2.94	16.2	15.7	0.43
Derek Fisher	41	42	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.21	5	4	1	17.4	15.6	1.78	15.3	16.8	-1.44
Robert Horry	40	42	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.11	7	2	5	17.2	15.8	1.44	15.7	16.5	-0.81
Rick Fox	58	61	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.09	5	4	1	15.7	17.9	-2.22	16.5	15.3	1.22
Travis Knight	24	23	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.30	-3	12	-15	18.1	15.8	2.26	15.1	16.4	-1.36
A.C. Green	38	39	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.05	2	7	-5	15.5	17.2	-1.68	17.7	14.9	2.81
Ron Harper	38	40	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.05	2	7	-5	15.5	17.2	-1.68	17.7	14.8	2.88
Devean George	11	10	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.04	0	9	-9	16.9	16.4	0.53	10.3	16.8	-6.53

Vancouver Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Othella Harrington	59	58	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.30	7	-16	23	15.9	16.5	-0.54	16.5	16.3	0.21
Bryant Reeves	42	40	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.09	-2	-7	5	17.7	14.7	2.98	15.8	17.0	-1.20
Milt Palacio	12	13	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.10	-3	-6	3	14.2	16.4	-2.23	16.7	16.4	0.29
Felipe Lopez	15	15	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	0.06	-11	2	-13	19.5	15.4	4.12	14.6	16.8	-2.23
Mike Bibby	78	74	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.14	-6	-3	-3	16.4	14.2	2.23	16.4	16.7	-0.29
Michael Dickerson	78	75	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.27	-2	-7	5	15.8	17.8	-2.00	16.5	16.2	0.33
Dennis Scott	45	45	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.11	-8	-1	-7	15.0	17.2	-2.24	17.6	15.2	2.48
Antoine Carr	42	40	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.01	-12	3	-15	15.4	16.7	-1.26	16.5	16.4	0.10
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	79	75	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.24	-8	-1	-7	16.0	16.8	-0.82	16.3	17.2	-0.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.32,0.27,0.23,0.22,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.17,0.24,0.24,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 100, BOS 85	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.32,0.23,0.18,0.26,0.17,0.18,0.14,0.23,0.26,0.22,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.26,0.18,0.1,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%
DEN 96, GSW 81	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.25,0.18,0.19,0.2,0.18,0.21,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.28,0.2,0.21,0.14,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.5%
MIA 110, GSW 96	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.28,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.25,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.24,0.29,0.23,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.4%