NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	110		Excitement	4.0 [1025]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +15.4%
Golden State Warriors	96		Comeback	1.5 [432]		LVP	Derek Fisher (GSW): -11.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.15	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.14	0.02	0.01	19	73%	0.26	4	-0.10	6	100%	0.03
Antoine Walker	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.16	0.01	0.07	11	86%	0.10	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0.06	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	7	69%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.01	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	9	72%	0.03	3	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	15	51%	0.10	4	-0.09	11	9%	-0.08
Jason Kapono	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	7	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Simien	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	5	20%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Baron Davis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.13	-0.02	0.03	20	59%	0.08	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Chris Taft	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zarko Cabarkapa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	6	33%	0.02	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.01
Ike Diogu	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	5	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.01	0.04	19	50%	0.04	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Jason Richardson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	0.02	13	44%	-0.00	1	-0.01	8	75%	-0.03
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	7	41%	-0.00	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.02	0.08	13	43%	-0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.4	28.6	16.6	28.4	1.8	28.2	130.4
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +53.5%

GSW -7.3%

MIA +13.5%

GSW -10.6%

MIA +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	GSW	NBA	MIA	GSW	NBA
this game	15.2	14.8	15.6	114.6	100.0	104.4
season	15.5	14.8		106.1	102.9
opponent	15.5	15.5		104.0	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.0	16.0	15.3	15.8	15.2
GSW	12.7	17.5	16.0	13.5	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Udonis Haslem	74	75	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.07	10	4	6	15.1	15.5	-0.33	15.0	14.1	0.84
Dwyane Wade	82	82	0.36	0.14	0.21	-0.03	13	1	12	14.9	16.9	-2.03	14.9	14.5	0.35
Gary Payton	53	52	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.08	9	5	4	15.9	14.3	1.54	15.0	14.6	0.43
Jason Williams	61	63	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.10	7	7	0	15.4	14.8	0.63	14.9	14.7	0.16
Alonzo Mourning	36	35	0.29	0.21	0.09	-0.18	16	-2	18	15.1	15.3	-0.18	14.6	14.9	-0.27
Antoine Walker	53	52	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.11	5	9	-4	15.6	14.7	0.99	14.2	15.6	-1.41
James Posey	44	45	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.03	7	7	0	14.5	15.8	-1.33	15.2	14.4	0.79
Shaquille O'Neal	59	60	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.28	-2	16	-18	15.4	14.9	0.54	15.1	14.2	0.93
Wayne Simien	10	9	0.12	0.38	-0.25	-0.02	5	9	-4	15.8	15.1	0.67	13.3	15.0	-1.62
Jason Kapono	8	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	14	-14	11.9	15.5	-3.63	12.1	15.0	-2.87

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Taft	10	10	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.05	0	-14	14	15.9	14.7	1.23	14.8	15.2	-0.44
Ike Diogu	49	51	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.04	-1	-13	12	14.0	15.6	-1.55	15.7	14.6	1.04
Monta Ellis	13	12	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.02	-3	-11	8	12.3	15.2	-2.89	11.1	15.8	-4.70
Andris Biedrins	15	15	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.07	-9	-5	-4	14.9	14.8	0.08	14.6	15.3	-0.71
Adonal Foyle	25	24	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.02	-6	-8	2	15.6	14.5	1.02	14.5	15.4	-0.93
Derek Fisher	51	52	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.11	-3	-11	8	14.4	15.2	-0.79	16.2	14.0	2.17
Troy Murphy	63	63	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.24	1	-15	16	15.2	14.0	1.27	15.4	14.9	0.49
Zarko Cabarkapa	32	32	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.14	-15	1	-16	14.4	15.0	-0.59	15.1	15.2	-0.11
Baron Davis	71	71	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.00	-12	-2	-10	14.6	15.2	-0.59	14.9	15.9	-0.98
Mike Dunleavy	85	84	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.11	-11	-3	-8	14.7	15.3	-0.53	15.1	15.7	-0.63
Jason Richardson	66	66	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.12	-11	-3	-8	15.7	12.8	2.86	15.5	14.6	0.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.28,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.25,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.24,0.29,0.23,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 101, MIL 93	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.4,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.33,0.37,0.28,0.31,0.28,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.25,0.21,0.1,0.14,0.15,0.16,0.26,0.17,0.11,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%
LAL 108, VAN 99	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.32,0.27,0.23,0.22,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.17,0.24,0.24,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.4%
HOU 118, LAL 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.23,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.15,0.17,0.3,0.35,0.25,0.18,0.15,0.14,0.1,0.08,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.2%