NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	90		Excitement	6.8 [461]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +16.4%
Seattle SuperSonics	82		Comeback	4.1 [302]		LVP	Gary Payton (SEA): -15.2%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.09	0.07	-0.00	20	71%	0.30	5	-0.14	2	100%	0.01
Antonio Daniels	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.04	0.11	0.00	5	90%	0.23	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Mario Elie	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.01	6	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Sean Elliott	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	6	62%	0.09	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.02
Jerome Kersey	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.02	0.02	23	47%	-0.03	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Malik Rose	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jaren Jackson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.11	-0.00	-0.03	14	30%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Samaki Walker	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	1	25%	-0.05	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brent Barry	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	-0.00	-0.00	10	70%	0.11	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jelani McCoy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.05	-0.01	12	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ruben Patterson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Vernon Maxwell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	10	30%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	9	33%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Vin Baker	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.00	-0.00	20	45%	-0.02	3	-0.08	7	43%	-0.05
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	23	43%	-0.11	3	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	58.6	1.8	28.2	17.7	25.0	2.8	31.4	165.4
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +52.4%

SAS +3.7%

SAS +8.6%

SEA -12.5%

SEA -2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	SEA	NBA	SAS	SEA	NBA
this game	16.1	16.4	15.2	102.3	92.1	101.7
season	15.5	14.9		101.6	103.5
opponent	15.4	15.4		102.6	95.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	17.4	15.7	17.2	14.5	16.1
SEA	17.0	17.0	14.9	17.0	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sean Elliott	48	49	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.30	13	-5	18	15.9	16.3	-0.36	16.6	16.2	0.39
Antonio Daniels	28	26	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.36	10	-2	12	16.8	15.8	1.00	17.2	16.1	1.12
Tim Duncan	82	83	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.24	13	-5	18	15.7	22.0	-6.33	16.7	13.5	3.15
David Robinson	64	66	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.28	4	4	0	16.6	14.8	1.74	16.6	16.0	0.53
Jaren Jackson	38	39	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.19	4	4	0	15.4	16.6	-1.20	16.8	16.2	0.63
Mario Elie	50	50	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.08	4	4	0	16.6	15.4	1.20	16.2	16.8	-0.63
Samaki Walker	17	16	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.02	1	7	-6	14.2	16.6	-2.39	15.2	16.7	-1.45
Malik Rose	13	13	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.02	-2	10	-12	19.0	15.6	3.40	15.8	16.5	-0.69
Avery Johnson	60	63	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.10	-2	10	-12	15.8	16.8	-1.00	16.1	17.2	-1.12
Jerome Kersey	40	40	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.03	-5	13	-18	16.3	15.9	0.36	16.2	16.6	-0.39

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ruben Patterson	30	27	0.17	-0.67	0.83	0.11	2	-10	12	16.3	16.5	-0.26	17.9	15.3	2.58
Jelani McCoy	33	33	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.04	1	-9	10	15.2	17.2	-1.95	16.8	15.7	1.10
Rashard Lewis	39	39	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.01	0	-8	8	15.9	16.9	-0.96	15.5	16.6	-1.15
Brent Barry	65	64	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.29	-2	-6	4	16.3	16.7	-0.37	16.6	14.9	1.69
Greg Foster	74	73	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.25	-6	-2	-4	16.4	16.4	0.05	16.1	15.9	0.20
Gary Payton	89	88	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.27	-8	0	-8	16.4	0.0	16.44	16.1	0.0	16.10
Vin Baker	64	64	-0.67	0.17	-0.85	-0.29	-13	5	-18	17.5	13.7	3.78	16.1	16.0	0.14
Vernon Maxwell	51	52	-0.79	0.29	-1.08	-0.38	-14	6	-20	16.5	16.3	0.21	14.6	18.3	-3.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.68,0.72,0.67,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.63,0.78,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.58,0.68,0.64,0.6,0.28,0.19,0.11,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 111, OKC 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.7,0.69,0.66,0.66,0.49,0.56,0.5,0.66,0.66,0.58,0.67,0.62,0.68,0.77,0.84,0.73,0.7,0.6,0.74,0.74,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.7,0.4,0.31,0.14,0.05,0,0,0	93.4%
CHH 92, WAS 83	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.63,0.58,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.63,0.63,0.55,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.69,0.7,0.75,0.78,0.82,0.79,0.76,0.68,0.73,0.61,0.4,0.25,0.34,0.11,0,0	92.7%
PHX 115, TOR 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.57,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.51,0.61,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.72,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.62,0.82,0.75,0.62,0.63,0.53,0.41,0.27,0.19,0.04,0.01,0,0	92.4%