NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	98		Excitement	4.4 [926]		MVP	Pat Garrity (ORL): +10.4%
Orlando Magic	107		Comeback	1.4 [973]		LVP	Ron Mercer (ORL): -12.7%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Don Reid	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.00	-0.03	8	67%	0.07	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mitch Richmond	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.09	-0.02	0.02	10	80%	0.12	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Williams	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	4	50%	0.00	2	-0.02	4	50%	0.00
Chris Whitney	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	10	45%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tracy Murray	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.08	-0.00	0.11	14	72%	0.01	3	-0.04	8	87%	0.01
Laron Profit	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gerard King	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	0.00	0.03	10	40%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	8	50%	0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jahidi White	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	7	39%	-0.06	2	-0.02	4	25%	-0.05
Rod Strickland	-0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	8	25%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.02	6	17%	-0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.02	0.02	3	133%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	11	71%	0.10	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.01	0.01	7	75%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Monty Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	8	73%	0.08	3	-0.05	10	70%	-0.00
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.05	0.01	-0.04	10	45%	0.03	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0	100%	0.00	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Derek Strong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	2	67%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	3	67%	0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Corey Maggette	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
John Amaechi	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	7	44%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	4	33%	-0.06	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Ron Mercer	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	-0.00	15	50%	0.00	5	-0.13	6	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.5	2.4	27.5	16.4	25.7	2.4	30.2	126.0
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +30.3%

ORL +16.0%

ORL +6.0%

WAS -4.1%

ORL +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	ORL	NBA	WAS	ORL	NBA
this game	16.4	13.9	15.2	102.1	113.8	101.7
season	15.5	13.6		101.1	100.4
opponent	15.4	14.8		99.3	104.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	17.3	16.8	16.3	15.2	16.4
ORL	11.5	12.5	15.0	16.8	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Laron Profit	24	26	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.23	6	-15	21	15.4	16.7	-1.33	15.6	13.2	2.41
Aaron Williams	28	26	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.03	-2	-7	5	14.8	17.1	-2.30	14.8	13.5	1.35
Tracy Murray	51	52	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.26	4	-13	17	15.6	17.4	-1.77	14.2	13.5	0.72
Mitch Richmond	49	47	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.03	-5	-4	-1	17.6	15.2	2.32	13.1	14.7	-1.62
Chris Whitney	51	50	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.25	1	-10	11	15.2	17.8	-2.52	14.7	13.0	1.73
Jahidi White	42	42	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.17	-2	-7	5	17.1	15.9	1.29	13.9	13.8	0.10
Don Reid	54	53	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.03	-8	-1	-7	15.9	17.1	-1.29	13.8	13.9	-0.10
Rod Strickland	45	44	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.01	-10	1	-11	17.8	15.2	2.52	13.0	14.7	-1.73
Juwan Howard	53	51	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.07	-8	-1	-7	17.5	15.1	2.40	13.5	14.3	-0.75
Richard Hamilton	27	25	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	0.06	-13	4	-17	15.7	16.7	-0.99	13.2	14.1	-0.92
Gerard King	56	54	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.18	-8	-1	-7	16.7	15.9	0.80	13.6	14.2	-0.66

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Doleac	40	41	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.05	16	-7	23	13.6	14.0	-0.39	17.2	15.8	1.36
Darrell Armstrong	50	52	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.01	13	-4	17	13.3	14.6	-1.31	17.0	15.8	1.19
Bo Outlaw	49	52	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.02	10	-1	11	13.6	14.2	-0.63	17.1	15.6	1.48
Ron Mercer	57	60	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.04	9	0	9	13.2	14.9	-1.68	16.8	15.7	1.11
Pat Garrity	37	37	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.19	2	7	-5	14.9	13.2	1.68	15.4	17.1	-1.73
Ben Wallace	57	59	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.04	7	2	5	13.2	14.9	-1.68	17.1	15.4	1.73
Corey Maggette	37	36	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.20	0	9	-9	14.9	13.2	1.68	15.7	16.8	-1.11
Monty Williams	35	35	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.02	7	2	5	13.4	14.2	-0.80	15.8	16.8	-0.93
Chucky Atkins	44	44	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.22	-4	13	-17	14.6	13.3	1.31	15.8	17.0	-1.19
Derek Strong	19	18	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.16	-3	12	-15	13.2	14.0	-0.83	16.2	16.5	-0.24
John Amaechi	35	37	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.13	-4	13	-17	14.5	13.5	0.98	15.6	16.9	-1.25
Anthony Johnson	10	9	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.24	-8	17	-25	17.1	13.5	3.61	14.8	16.6	-1.81

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.57,0.67,0.63,0.62,0.57,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.73,0.74,0.79,0.77,0.73,0.7,0.74,0.77,0.73,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.8,0.82,0.88,0.9,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.94,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 93, TOR 103	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.78,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.7,0.7,0.64,0.79,0.83,0.86,0.9,0.92,0.92,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	96.4%
MEM 95, SAC 100	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.74,0.77,0.64,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.75,0.7,0.68,0.77,0.79,0.89,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,1	95.8%
DEN 106, SEA 119	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.73,0.8,0.79,0.75,0.73,0.78,0.77,0.79,0.78,0.77,0.67,0.62,0.74,0.87,0.9,0.94,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%